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How the Federal Reserve’s Next Move Could Impact the Housing Market

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Now that it’s September, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve (the Fed). The overwhelming expectation is that they’ll cut the Federal Funds Rate at their upcoming meeting, driven primarily by recent signs that inflation is cooling, and the job market is slowing down. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, said:

“They’re ready to cut, just as long as we don’t get an inflation surprise between now and September, which we won’t.”

But what does this mean for the housing market, and more importantly, for you as a potential homebuyer or seller?

Why a Federal Funds Rate Cut Matters

The Federal Funds Rate is one of the key factors that influences mortgage rates – things like the economy, geopolitical uncertainty, and more also have an impact.

When the Fed cuts the Federal Funds Rate, it signals what’s happening in the broader economy, and mortgage rates tend to respond. While a single rate cut might not lead to a dramatic drop in mortgage rates, it could contribute to the gradual decline that’s already happening.

As Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), points out:

“Once the Fed kicks off a rate-cutting cycle, we do expect that mortgage rates will move somewhat lower.”

And any upcoming Federal Funds Rate cut likely won’t be a one-time event. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

“Generally, the rate-cutting cycle is not one-and-done. Six to eight rounds of rate cuts all through 2025 look likely.”

The Projected Impact on Mortgage Rates

Here’s what experts in the industry project for mortgage rates through 2025. One contributing factor to this ongoing gradual decline is the anticipated cuts from the Fed. The graph below shows the latest forecasts from Fannie Mae, MBA, NAR, and Wells Fargo (see graph below):

No Caption ReceivedSo, with recent improvements in inflation and signs of a cooling job market, a Federal Funds Rate cut is likely to lead to a moderate decline in mortgage rates (shown in the dotted lines). Here are two big reasons why that’s good news for both buyers and sellers:

1. It Helps Alleviate the Lock-In Effect

For current homeowners, lower mortgage rates could help ease the lock-in effect. That’s where people feel stuck within their current home because today’s rates are higher than what they locked in when they bought their current house.

If the fear of losing your low-rate mortgage and facing higher costs has kept you out of the market, a slight reduction in rates could make selling a bit more attractive again. However, this isn’t expected to bring a flood of sellers to the market, as many homeowners may still be cautious about giving up their existing mortgage rate.

2. It Should Boost Buyer Activity

For potential homebuyers, any drop in mortgage rates will provide a more inviting housing market. Lower mortgage rates can reduce the overall cost of homeownership, making it more feasible for you if you’ve been waiting to make a move.

What Should You Do?

While a Federal Funds Rate cut is not expected to lead to drastically lower mortgage rates, it will likely contribute to the gradual decrease that’s already happening.

And while the anticipated rate cut represents a positive shift for the future of the housing market, it’s important to consider your options right now. Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at LendingTree, sums it up well:

“Timing the market is basically impossible. If you’re always waiting for perfect market conditions, you’re going to be waiting forever. Buy now only if it’s a good idea for you.”

Bottom Line

The expected Federal Funds Rate cut, driven by improving inflation and slower job growth, is likely to have a positive, albeit gradual, impact on mortgage rates. That could help unlock opportunities for you. When you’re ready, connect with a local real estate agent so you’re prepared to take action.

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Agent Value

4 Ways To Make an Offer That Stands Out This Spring

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Now that spring is here, more and more buyers are jumping back into the market, and competition is heating up.

If you’re serious about landing a home you’ll love, you need more than just a wish list. You need a smart strategy – and that starts with working with a great agent who can help you put together a strong offer.

Here are some top tips your agent will share with you that are helping buyers stand out (and win) in today’s market.

1. Don’t Lowball on Price

It’s tempting to start with a super low offer in an attempt to save money. But in a competitive spring market, that could backfire. If the price isn’t reasonable, you could offend the seller and lose out to a better bid. As NerdWallet says:

“If you really want the property, you should avoid offending the seller. So, be wary of placing a so-called lowball offer. One of the most obvious risks of making a lowball offer is outright rejection. . . As a buyer, you’ll need to find a balance between making a fair offer and running the risk of losing the property.

Your agent can help you understand local pricing trends and what a fair, yet strong offer looks like this season.

2. Consider an Escalation Clause

If you’re worried about competing bids, an escalation clause can help. If you have an escalation clause and the seller gets another offer, it increases yours up to a certain max amount you set. That way you don’t lose out over a small difference. Investopedia explains it like this:

“An escalation clause is a way to automatically escalate your bid by a certain dollar amount, up to a certain ceiling, to compete with other bids.”

Work with your agent to decide if this tactic fits your situation and budget. Just be sure not to stretch beyond what you’re truly comfortable spending and that the home is likely to appraise for the amount you offer.

If the appraisal comes in lower than your offer, you may have to make up the difference out of pocket. Your agent can help you weigh these risks and determine the best approach for your specific situation.

3. Be Intentional About the Concessions You Ask For

While some concessions (like help with closing costs) might be possible, too many demands could make another buyer’s cleaner offer more attractive. As the National Association of Realtors (NAR) notes:

“There are many factors up for discussion in any real estate transaction—from price to repairs to possession date. A real estate professional who’s representing you will look at the transaction from your perspective, helping you negotiate a purchase agreement that meets your needs . . .

An agent who knows what’s working for other buyers in your area can help you prioritize the most important asks – and avoid ones that could turn off the seller.

4. Consider a Timeline That Appeals to the Seller

Sometimes, it’s not just about price, it’s about timing. Does the seller need extra time to move out? Or do they want to move as soon as possible? Flexibility here can work in your favor. By adjusting your timeline (if you’re able to), you could stand out against other offers. According to Atlas Van Lines:

“Everyone will have a unique timeline depending on the size of the move, the distance they are moving from or to, and personal preferences. It is important to be flexible and adapt the timeline as needed while ensuring you allocate enough time for each step.”

Your agent can communicate with the seller’s agent to find out what matters most, including timing.

Bottom Line

Spring is here – and more buyers are entering the market. Work together with a local real estate agent to make sure your offer stands out.

What’s one thing you want to feel confident about before making an offer this spring?

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Agent Value

Why You Don’t Want To Skip Your Home Inspection

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When you finally find the home you want to buy, it’s easy to get caught up in the excitement. You’ve toured the place, imagined your furniture in it, maybe even pictured your morning coffee on the porch. The last thing you want is to slow down the process with more steps or lose out to another buyer’s offer because they skipped their inspection.

But here’s the thing. Buying a home is one of the biggest financial decisions you’ll ever make. And no matter how perfect that house seems, skipping a home inspection is a risk that could cost you a lot more than just time.

What Exactly Is a Home Inspection?

A home inspection gives you a detailed look at the home’s condition, usually after your offer’s accepted but before closing. While what’s covered varies by state, an inspector usually goes over the home’s major systems and structure, including things like the roof, foundation, plumbing, electrical, HVAC, and more.

Why an Inspection Is Worth It

Here’s a quick rundown of some of the biggest benefits of getting an inspection.

  • Helps you avoid unpleasant surprises. A house might seem move-in ready, but could have issues you didn’t see during your walkthrough. Knowing about these before closing day is important. That way, you have a better idea of what work may need to be done to the home.
  • Gives you negotiating power. Depending on what the inspection turns up, you may want to re-negotiate with the seller. For that, lean on your agent. With their help, you can ask the seller to handle repairs before closing day or provide a credit so you can take care of them yourself.
  • Offers you peace of mind. Buying a home is emotional, especially if you’ve been searching for a while. An inspection helps take some of the uncertainty off your plate, so you can move forward with confidence.

A few hundred dollars upfront for the home inspection could save you thousands in surprise repairs later. As the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says:

“Failure to obtain a home inspection could potentially cost you a great deal of money and hassles in the long run.”  

Why You Don’t Want To Waive Your Inspection

According to the latest data from NAR, nearly 1 in 4 buyers are waiving (or removing) the inspection contingency when they buy a home. And with spring being peak homebuying season and buyer activity already heating up, you may be thinking about doing that yourself. As Realtor.com points out:

“ . . . if you’re in a hot real estate market where homes are getting multiple offers, there might be a temptation to skip an inspection when you really want the house. However, waiving a home inspection comes with sizable risks.”

But skipping the inspection is a gamble that doesn’t necessarily pay off. Just remember, there are other ways to make your offer attractive to sellers, like being flexible with the closing date. Before making an offer, talk to your agent about other ways to get a seller’s attention without sacrificing your peace of mind.

Bottom Line

Even if skipping an inspection sounds like a way to make your offer more competitive or speed things up, it’s risky. It’s not just extra time and documentation, it’s a smart step that protects your wallet, your investment, and your future.

If you could ask a home inspector one question before buying, what would it be? Let your agent know so it’s the first thing they bring up when the time comes. 

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Agent Value

The Truth About Newly Built Homes and Today’s Market

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Headlines are talking about the inventory of new homes and how we’re back at the levels not seen since 2009. And maybe you’re reading that and thinking: oh no, here we go again. That’s because you remember the housing crash of the late 2000s and you’re worried we’re repeating the same mistakes.

But before you let fear take hold, remember: headlines are designed to be clickbait. And a lot of the time, they do more to terrify than clarify. That’s because they don’t always give you all the context you need. So, let’s take a step back and look at what the data really says.

Why This Isn’t Like 2008

While it’s true the number of new homes on the market has reached its highest level since 2009, that’s not a cause for alarm.

Here’s the context that matters most. When the data is turned into a graph, it’s clear the amount seen in 2009 wasn’t the peak of oversupply – not even close. That high point came earlier in 2007-2008. If anything, 2009 was when the number of new homes being built was really starting to slide back down (see graph below):

a graph of a market growthThe overbuilding that contributed to the housing crash happened in the years leading up to 2008. Not in 2009. At that point, construction was already slowing down. So, saying we’ve hit 2009 levels isn’t the same thing as saying we’re overbuilding like we did the last time.

Builders Have Actually Underbuilt for Over a Decade

Here’s some more data to prove it to you. After the crash, builders pulled production way back. As a result, they built far fewer homes than the market needed. And that was a consistent problem that lasted for over a decade. That long stretch of underbuilding created a major housing shortage, which is still a challenge today.

The graph below uses Census data to show the number of new homes built each year over the past 52 years. You can clearly see the overbuilding leading up to the crash (in red), the period of underbuilding that followed (in orange), and how we’re only now getting back to a more normal level of construction:

a graph of a number of units

Today’s situation is different. Builders aren’t overbuilding – they’re catching up.

In a recent article, Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, highlights this deficit and speaks to why the recent ramp-up in construction is actually good for today’s market, especially buyers:

This means more homes on the market and more options for home buyers, which is good news for a housing market that has been underbuilt for over a decade.”

Of course, like anything else in real estate, the level of supply and demand will vary by market. Some markets may have more newly built homes, some less. But, nationally, there’s nothing to worry about. This isn’t like the last time.

Bottom Line

No matter what you’re reading or seeing, the growing number of newly built homes on the market isn’t a red flag nationally – it’s a sign builders are starting to make up for years of underbuilding. If you want to talk about what’s happening in your market, connect with an agent.

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The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, Landshark Mark, LLC and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.