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For Buyers

Home Values Rise Even as Median Prices Fall

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Recent headlines have been buzzing about the median asking price of homes dropping compared to last year, and that’s sparked plenty of confusion. And as a buyer or seller, it’s easy to assume that means prices are coming down. But here’s the catch: those numbers don’t tell the full story.

Nationally, home values are actually rising, even if the median price is down a bit. Let’s break down what’s really happening so you can make sense of the market without getting caught up in the fear the headlines create.

Homes on the Market Right Now Are Smaller

The biggest reason for the dip in median price is the size of homes being sold. The median price reflects the middle point of all the homes for sale at any given time. And that’ll be affected by the mix of homes on the market.

To show you how this works, here’s a simple explanation of a median (see visual below). Let’s say you have three coins in your pocket, and you decide to line them up according to their value from low to high. If you have one nickel and two dimes, the median (the middle one) is 10 cents. If you have two nickels and one dime, the median is now five cents.

No Caption ReceivedIn both cases, a nickel is still worth five cents and a dime is still worth 10 cents. The value of each coin didn’t change. The same is true for housing.

Right now, there’s a greater number of smaller, less expensive homes on the market, and that’s bringing the overall median price down. But that doesn’t mean home values are declining.

As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

“The share of inventory of smaller and more affordable homes has grown, which helps hold down the median price even as per-square-foot prices grow further.”

And here’s the data to prove it. 

Price Per Square Foot Is Still Rising

One of the best ways to measure home values is by looking at the price per square foot. That’s because it shows how much you’re paying for the space inside the home.

The median asking price doesn’t take into account the size of different homes, so it may not always reflect the true value. And the latest national price per square foot data shows home values are still increasing, even though the median asking price has dropped (see graph below).

No Caption ReceivedAs Ralph McLaughlin, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

“When a change in the mix of inventory toward smaller homes is accounted for, the typical home listed this year has increased in asking price compared with last year.”

This means that while smaller homes are affecting the median price, the average home’s value is still rising. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA):

“Nationally, the U.S. housing market has experienced positive annual appreciation each quarter since the start of 2012.”

So, while headlines may make it sound like prices are crashing, you don’t have to worry. With a closer look and more reliable data, you can see that prices are still climbing nationally.

But it’s important to remember that home prices can vary by region. While national trends provide a big-picture view, local markets may be experiencing different conditions. A trusted agent is the best resource to explain what’s happening in your area.

Bottom Line

The decrease in median price is not the same as a decrease in home values. The median asking price is down mostly due to the mix of smaller, less expensive homes on the market.

The important thing to focus on is the price per square foot, which is a better indicator of overall market value—and those prices are still going up. If you have questions about what home prices are doing in your area, reach out to a local real estate agent who can provide insights on your specific market.

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For Buyers

Are Big Investors Really Buying Up All the Homes? Here’s the Truth.

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It’s hard to scroll online lately without seeing some version of this claim:

“Big investors are buying up all the homes.”

And honestly, if you’re a homebuyer who’s lost out on a few offers, that idea probably sounds believable. When homes are expensive and competition is tight, it’s easy to assume giant companies are scooping everything up behind the scenes.

But here’s the thing: what people assume is happening and what the data actually shows aren’t always the same.

Let’s look at what’s really happening with large institutional investors in today’s housing market – because the numbers tell a much different story than the headlines.

The Number Most People Won’t See Online

Let’s start with the most important stat. According to John Burns Research & Consulting (JBREC), large institutional investors – those that own 100 or more homes – made up just 1.2% of all home purchases in Q3 of 2025 (see graph below):

a graph of salesThat’s it. Out of every 100 homes sold, only about 1 went to a large institutional investor.

And here’s an important point that often gets missed: that level of investor activity is very much in line with historical norms. It’s not unusually high, and it’s actually well below the recent peak of 3.1% back in 2022 – which itself was still a small share of the overall market.

So, while it can feel like big investors are everywhere, nationally, they’re a very small part of overall home sales.

Why Investor Activity Gets So Much Attention

There are two main reasons this topic gets so much attention:

  1. Investor activity isn’t spread evenly.Investors are more active in certain markets, which can make competition feel intense for homebuyers in those areas. As Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub, explains:“On a national level, “large investors”—those owning at least 100 single-family homes—only own around 1% of total single-family housing stock. That said, in a handful of regional housing markets, institutional and large single-family landlords have a much larger presence.
  2. Investor is a broad term.Part of what makes the share of purchases bought by investors sound so big is because many headlines lump large Wall Street institutions together with small, local investors (like your neighbor who owns one or two rental homes). But those are very different buyers.In reality, most investors are small, local owners, not massive corporations. And when all investors get grouped together in the headlines as a single stat, it inflates the number and makes it seem like big institutions are dominating the market (even though they’re not).

Yes, big investors exist. Yes, they buy homes. But nationally, they’re responsible for a very small share of total purchases – far smaller than most people assume.

The bigger challenges around affordability have much more to do with supply, demand, and years of underbuilding than with large institutions competing against everyday buyers.

That’s why it’s so important to separate noise from reality, especially if you’re trying to decide if now is the right time to move.

Bottom Line

If you want to talk through what investor activity actually looks like in our local market, and how it impacts your options (or doesn’t), connect with a local real estate agent.

Sometimes a little context makes all the difference.

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First-Time Buyers

The Credit Score Myth That’s Holding Would-Be Buyers Back

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Would-be homebuyers aren’t sitting on the sidelines because they don’t want to buy. They’re sitting out because they think they can’t. And sometimes, it’s their credit score that’s holding them back.

According to a Bankrate survey, 2 out of every 5 (42%) Americans believe you need excellent credit to qualify for a mortgage. That may be why, when renters are asked why they don’t own yet, “my credit isn’t good enough” comes up often.

Maybe you’re in the same boat. You look at your score, see it’s not where you want it to be, and assume buying your first place just isn’t realistic right now.

But here’s what you need to know.

Even though a lot of people assume you need flawless credit to buy a house, that’s not necessarily the case.

You Don’t Need Perfect Credit To Buy a Home

So, where’s this myth come from? Part of the confusion stems from the fact that the typical homebuyer today does have a fairly strong credit score. In fact, according to data from the NY Fed, the median credit score for all buyers is 775.

But that doesn’t mean you need a score that high to qualify.

Looking at recent homebuyers, a number were able to get a mortgage with scores below that threshold. Data shows 10% of scores were around 660. Which means some were higher than that and some were lower, but the median in that lowest 10th percentile was around that range (see graph below):

a graph showing a line graphSo, even if your score isn’t as high as you want, that doesn’t automatically close the door. FICO explains there is no universal credit score you absolutely have to have when buying a home:

“While many lenders use credit scores like FICO Scores to help them make lending decisions, each lender has its own strategy, including the level of risk it finds acceptable. There is no single ‘cutoff score’ used by all lenders, and there are many additional factors that lenders may use . . .

The best thing to do is to talk to a trusted lender to see what’s possible for you. Because a portion of buyers are buying with scores in the 600s – and maybe that means you can too.

Bottom Line

Your credit score is important. But that doesn’t mean it has to be perfect.

If credit has been the reason you’ve been waiting to buy a home, it might be time to take another look at your options. If you want help understanding where you stand and what your next step could be, connect with a local lender.

You don’t need to have everything figured out to start the conversation.

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For Buyers

Expert Forecasts Point to Affordability Improving in 2026

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Wondering what to expect from the housing market in 2026? You’re not the only one. For the past few years, affordability has been the biggest barrier standing between most people and their next move. And a lot of buyers and sellers have been holding their breath waiting for things to get better. The good news? It’s finally happening.

In 2025, affordability was the best it’s been in 3 years. And experts agree the momentum will keep going in 2026. And that’s based on their analysis of the key factors shaping the housing market in the year ahead: mortgage rates, inventory, and home prices.

Lower Mortgage Rates Are Already Here 

Mortgage rates have already come down from their peak. By some counts, they dropped by almost a full percentage point over the course of the last year. And that’s a big deal, even if it doesn’t sound like it. But how low will they go? And should you wait for them to come down more? Here’s your answer. 

Forecasts suggest they’ll stay pretty much where they are now and hover in the low 6% range throughout 2026 (see graph below):

a graph with numbers and linesWhere they go from here really depends on what happens with the economy, the job market, and any changes in monetary policy the Fed makes in the year ahead. The important thing is, they’re already lower than they were just one year ago and that’s ideal if you’re planning a 2026 move.

  • For buyers: A lower rate reduces monthly payments and increases buying power. And, that combo helps more people qualify for homes that previously felt just out of reach.
  • For sellers: It may be time to accept that rates in the 6s are the new normal. And if you need to move, it’s doable, especially with your equity.

Even More Options Are on the Way

In 2025, the number of homes for sale improved by about 15%. As inventory rose, buyers regained things they hadn’t had in years: options, time to consider those options, and negotiating leverage. That helped restore more balance to the housing market.

Not to mention, the inventory gains are a big piece of what’s helped price growth slow down – which in turn improves affordability.

While the inventory gains this year aren’t expected to be as steep, experts at Realtor.com say the supply of homes for sale should grow by another 8.9% this year.

  • For buyers: That means even more choice and more negotiating power.
  • For sellers: Pricing your house right will be essential to draw in buyers.

Home Price Growth Is Slowing to a More Sustainable Pace

With more homes for sale, there isn’t as much upward pressure on prices right now. And we’ve seen that shake out over the past year. Even so, the overwhelming majority of experts say, nationally, prices will continue rising in the year ahead – just at a slower pace. On average, they say prices will rise by 1.6% in 2026 (see graph below):

a graph of increasing pricesAnd that’s reassuring if you’ve been fed content on social media saying prices are going to come crashing down. But here’s what you need to remember most about this. It’s going to vary a lot by area.

So, lean on a local agent for the latest on what’s happening where you are. Some markets will see prices rise more than this. Others may see prices come down slightly. It really all depends on conditions in your local market

But overall, prices will continue to rise at the national level. And that’s good for the market as a whole. As Realtor.com explains:

For homebuyers and sellers, the shift signals a more balanced market—one where price growth steadies, rate relief offers breathing room, and negotiating power tilts subtly toward buyers.”

  • For buyers: Expect more moderate price growth, not the sudden and intense spikes just a few short years ago. That gives you fewer surprises and more predictability, which makes budgeting a whole lot easier.
  • For sellers: This slower price growth restores balance without putting your equity at risk. And that’s a win. 

More Homes Will Sell 

All of this adds up to a better affordability equation in 2026. And that’s exactly why experts are saying we should see more homes sell (and more people buy) this year.

a graph of a graph showing the sales of a companyAs Mischa Fisher, Chief Economist at Zillow, says:

“Buyers are benefiting from more inventory and improved affordability, while sellers are seeing price stability and more consistent demand. Each group should have a bit more breathing room in 2026.”

The bottom line is, more people are finally going to be able to make their move this year. So, the question is: will you be one of them? The market is giving you an opportunity you haven’t had in a while. Maybe it’s time to take advantage of it.

Bottom Line

Affordability won’t change suddenly overnight. But, with several key trends working together, it should slowly and steadily improve in the months ahead.

That’s exactly why, in 2026, you should see a market with more balance, more predictability, and more breathing room than you’ve had in years.

Want more information about the opportunities unlocking in your local market? Connect with a real estate agent today.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.