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Home Values Rise Even as Median Prices Fall

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Recent headlines have been buzzing about the median asking price of homes dropping compared to last year, and that’s sparked plenty of confusion. And as a buyer or seller, it’s easy to assume that means prices are coming down. But here’s the catch: those numbers don’t tell the full story.

Nationally, home values are actually rising, even if the median price is down a bit. Let’s break down what’s really happening so you can make sense of the market without getting caught up in the fear the headlines create.

Homes on the Market Right Now Are Smaller

The biggest reason for the dip in median price is the size of homes being sold. The median price reflects the middle point of all the homes for sale at any given time. And that’ll be affected by the mix of homes on the market.

To show you how this works, here’s a simple explanation of a median (see visual below). Let’s say you have three coins in your pocket, and you decide to line them up according to their value from low to high. If you have one nickel and two dimes, the median (the middle one) is 10 cents. If you have two nickels and one dime, the median is now five cents.

No Caption ReceivedIn both cases, a nickel is still worth five cents and a dime is still worth 10 cents. The value of each coin didn’t change. The same is true for housing.

Right now, there’s a greater number of smaller, less expensive homes on the market, and that’s bringing the overall median price down. But that doesn’t mean home values are declining.

As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

“The share of inventory of smaller and more affordable homes has grown, which helps hold down the median price even as per-square-foot prices grow further.”

And here’s the data to prove it. 

Price Per Square Foot Is Still Rising

One of the best ways to measure home values is by looking at the price per square foot. That’s because it shows how much you’re paying for the space inside the home.

The median asking price doesn’t take into account the size of different homes, so it may not always reflect the true value. And the latest national price per square foot data shows home values are still increasing, even though the median asking price has dropped (see graph below).

No Caption ReceivedAs Ralph McLaughlin, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

“When a change in the mix of inventory toward smaller homes is accounted for, the typical home listed this year has increased in asking price compared with last year.”

This means that while smaller homes are affecting the median price, the average home’s value is still rising. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA):

“Nationally, the U.S. housing market has experienced positive annual appreciation each quarter since the start of 2012.”

So, while headlines may make it sound like prices are crashing, you don’t have to worry. With a closer look and more reliable data, you can see that prices are still climbing nationally.

But it’s important to remember that home prices can vary by region. While national trends provide a big-picture view, local markets may be experiencing different conditions. A trusted agent is the best resource to explain what’s happening in your area.

Bottom Line

The decrease in median price is not the same as a decrease in home values. The median asking price is down mostly due to the mix of smaller, less expensive homes on the market.

The important thing to focus on is the price per square foot, which is a better indicator of overall market value—and those prices are still going up. If you have questions about what home prices are doing in your area, reach out to a local real estate agent who can provide insights on your specific market.

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First-Time Buyers

Top 2026 Housing Markets for Buyers and Sellers

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Who doesn’t love a top 10 list? Well, here are two top 10 lists for the housing market this year. But before you take a look, there’s something you should know.

If a move is on your radar for 2026, here’s the most important thing you need to understand upfront: there isn’t one housing market this year – there are many.

Experts agree 2026 is shaping up to be one of the most geographically split housing markets in years. Some areas are tilting in favor of sellers, while others are opening real doors for buyers. Who has the advantage depends almost entirely on where you are. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at Cotality, puts it this way:

Looking ahead to 2026, regional differences will remain pronounced, with demand favoring areas that offer both economic opportunity and relative affordability.”

To show just how divided the landscape is, here’s a look at where sellers are expected to have the upper hand, and where first-time buyers may finally find their opening this year.

Where Sellers Are Poised To Win Big in 2026

Zillow identified the following metros as some of the strongest seller markets for 2026, based on buyer demand, pricing momentum, and how quickly homes are expected to sell:

a wooden house and a stack of coinsIn markets like these, buyers are going to be competing for limited inventory, which gives sellers more leverage.

Homeowners in seller’s markets this year can expect:

  • Stronger buyer interest

  • Shorter time on market

  • Better odds of selling close to (or above) asking price

That doesn’t mean every listing is guaranteed success. But it does mean sellers who prepare well and lean on an agent’s expertise should be very happy with their results in 2026.

Markets Where There’s More Opportunity for First-Time Buyers

On the flip side, here’s a look at where buyers have the power – in particular, first-time buyers, since they’ve had the hardest time breaking into the market lately. Realtor.com highlights the top metros where first-time buyers are expected to have better opportunities in 2026:

a girl riding a skateboard in front of a houseThese markets stand out for a mix of:

  • More affordable home prices

  • Better housing availability

  • Strong local amenities and economic health

For first-time buyers, that combination matters. It’s what could finally turn “someday” into “this could actually work.” In buyer’s markets, they should expect:

  • Less intense competition

  • More room to negotiate

  • A clearer path to getting an offer accepted

What Matters More Than Any Top 10 List

Not seeing your city on the list? Don’t stress. This is just a national snapshot, not a judgment on your local market. The goal here is just to show you how different the market really is depending on where you are.

And remember, you can buy or sell no matter how your local market leans. You just need an agent’s help to figure out the right strategy to get it done. For example:

  • A seller in a more buyer-friendly metro may need to be aggressive on their price and prep.

  • A buyer in a seller-leaning area may still need to come prepared with their best offer.

To find out where your market falls and what you should expect, you’ll want the help of a local expert.

Bottom Line

The housing market in 2026 isn’t one-size-fits-all. It’s a year where local conditions matter more than ever.

Whether your market leans more buyer-friendly or seller-friendly, the right strategy can put you in a strong position. And that’s where a local expert comes in. Connect with a trusted real estate agent today.

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Buying Tips

You May Not Want To Skip Over That House That’s Been Sitting on the Market

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When you see a house that’s been sitting on the market for a while, the reaction is almost automatic. You start thinking:

  • What’s wrong with it?

  • Why hasn’t anyone bought it yet?

  • Am I missing something?

That mindset made sense a few years ago. But in today’s market, you may actually miss out.

More Time on Market Isn’t Automatically a Concern Anymore

A few years ago, homes sold in just a matter of days. Sometimes, hours. Anything that lingered longer than that raised concerns. But that’s no longer the baseline.

Inventory has grown. Buyers have more choices. And homes are taking longer to sell across the board. Those are some of the reasons why the typical time it takes a home to sell has climbed this year:

a graph of blue barsAnd it’s not that 73 days is slow. That’s actually pretty normal for this time of year. It just feels slow because you heard so much about houses being snapped up in the buying frenzy a few years ago.

That shift alone explains a lot of what you’re seeing. It’s not necessarily that there’s anything wrong with the house itself. Although, let’s be honest, sometimes that is the case.

Most of the time today, a house that’s taking longer to sell simply means:

  • There are a lot of homes for sale in that area

  • The seller priced a little too high at first

  • The home didn’t photograph as well online

  • Buyers passed it over for flashier listings nearby

  • The timing just wasn’t right when it first hit the market

None of those are necessarily deal-breakers.

What Buyers Often Get Wrong About These Listings

Because even though you may assume a house that hasn’t sold must have hidden issues, the reality is, that’s not always the case. And, if the house does have issues, it’ll show up quickly in your inspection.

That’s information you can use to negotiate. Not a reason to walk away automatically. And in many cases, that’s where buyers find the best deals.

The key is knowing which homes that have been sitting for a while are worth a second look – and which ones aren’t. That’s why working with a local agent makes a real difference. They’ll be able to look at disclosures and more to help you uncover hidden gems other buyers may overlook. 

Bottom Line

A home sitting on the market isn’t always a warning sign. Sometimes it’s an overlooked opportunity.

If you want help identifying which homes are worth a second look (and which ones to skip), talk to a local agent.

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Affordability

Mortgage Rates Recently Hit a 3-Year Low. Here’s Why That’s Still a Big Deal.

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If you’re one of the thousands of homebuyers waiting for rates to fall, you should know it’s already happening. And they recently crossed an important milestone. Rates officially dipped their toes into the 5s – something that hasn’t happened in about 3 years.

This moment marked a critical threshold. Now, rates are sitting in the low 6% territory. And expert forecasts project they’ll hover near this range throughout the year.

Here’s why that’s so good for you.

Why Current Rates Are Such a Big Deal

A mortgage rate doesn’t just affect the interest you end up paying on your home loan. It shapes your entire buying experience.

When rates were up around 7% just one year ago, a lot of buyers felt priced out. Payments were higher. Budgets felt tighter. Affordability was a bigger challenge. That’s especially true for first-time homebuyers, who felt the biggest pinch.

But according to industry experts, that’s starting to change now that rates are slowly inching down. Let’s break down why.

Right now, borrowing costs are in their lowest range in almost 3 years. And that can change the type of home you can afford.

At 6% or below, you’ll see:

  • Lower monthly payments. The payment on a $400k home loan is down over $300 compared to when rates were around 7%.
  • More buying power, thanks to the extra breathing room in your budget.

In other words, you can now make a stronger offer, purchase in a different location, or buy a home that checks more of your boxes. And that feels like a big shift compared to when rates were at 7%.

This Opens the Door for 550,000 Buyers

To drive home just how much this helps potential homebuyers like you, consider this research from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). It shows that when mortgage rates sit around this level, millions more households can afford a home. When rates are at 6% or below:

  • 5.5 million more households can afford the median-priced home
  • And roughly 550,000 of those people will likely buy a home within 12 to 18 months

That’s not just speculation. That’s pent-up demand finally getting the green light they’ve been waiting for. You’ve got the chance right now to get ahead and buy before more people notice the game has just changed.

Because whether rates stay in the low 6s or dip back down into the upper 5s, the math is already working in your favor. And the difference from a low 6% to a high 5% isn’t as big as you may think. But the difference from 7% to 6%? That is very much a big deal, and it’s a number that’s already working in your favor.

An Important Call Out

Mortgage rates don’t operate in a vacuum. Home prices, local inventory, property taxes, home insurance, and your personal finances still matter.

And a rate in this territory doesn’t mean every home suddenly works for every buyer. That’s why getting pre-approved and running your numbers with a trusted lender is key.

Still, this rate environment puts more buyers in play than we’ve seen in years. So, if buying didn’t work for you before, it’s worth taking another look.

Bottom Line

Mortgage rates dropping to a 3-year low isn’t just a headline.

For many buyers, where rates are now could be the difference between watching from the sidelines and finally getting the keys to their next home.

If you’ve been waiting for a sign to re-run your numbers and see what’s possible now, this is it.

Connect with a lender to take a look at what today’s rates mean for your budget and your options.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.