There are plenty of headlines these days calling for a housing market crash. But the truth is, they’re not telling the full story. Here’s what’s actually happening, and what the experts project for home prices over the next 5 years. And spoiler alert – it’s not a crash.

Yes, in some local markets, prices are flattening or even dipping slightly this year as more homes hit the market. That’s normal with rising inventory. But the bigger picture is what really matters, and it’s far less dramatic than what the doom-and-gloom headlines suggest. Here’s why.

Over 100 leading housing market experts were surveyed in the latest Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae. Their collective forecast shows prices are projected to keep rising over the next 5 years, just at a slower, healthier pace than what we’ve seen more recently. And that kind of steady, sustainable growth should be one factor to help ease your fears about the years ahead (see graph below):

And if you take a look at how the various experts responded within the survey, they fall into three main categories: those that were most optimistic about the forecast, most pessimistic, and the overall average outlook.

Here’s what the breakdown shows:

• The average projection is about 3.3% price growth per year, through 2029.
• The optimists see growth closer to 5.0% per year.
• The pessimists still forecast about 1.3% growth per year.

Do they all agree on the same number? Of course not. But here’s the key takeaway: not one expert group is calling for a major national decline or a crash. Instead, they expect home prices to rise at a steady, more sustainable pace.

That’s much healthier for the market – and for you. Yes, some areas may see prices hold relatively flat or dip a bit in the short term, especially where inventory is on the rise. Others may appreciate faster than the national average because there are still fewer homes for sale than there are buyers trying to purchase them. But overall, more moderate price growth is cooling the rapid spikes we saw during the frenzy of the past few years.

And remember, even the most conservative experts still project prices will rise over the course of the next 5 years. That’s also because foreclosures are low, lending standards are in check, and homeowners have near record equity to boost the stability of the market. Together, those factors help prevent a wave of forced sales, like the kind that could drag prices down. So, if you’re waiting for a significant crash before you buy, you might be waiting quite a long time.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been on the fence about your plans, now’s the time to get clarity. The market isn’t heading for a crash – it’s on track for steady, slow, long-term growth overall, with some regional ups and downs along the way.

Want to know what that means for your neighborhood? Because national trends set the tone, but what really matters is what’s happening in your zip code. Connect with a real estate agent to have a quick conversation so you can see exactly what the local data means for you. 

Some Highlights

• Are you wondering what to expect if you buy or sell a home in the second half of the year? Here’s what the expert forecasts tell you.
• Mortgage rates are expected to come down slightly. There will be more homes available for sale. And as inventory rises, home price growth will moderate.
• Want to know what this could mean for your plans? Connect with a local agent and talk through it together.

From rising home prices to mortgage rate swings, the housing market has left a lot of people wondering what’s next – and whether now is really the right time to move. There is one place you can turn to for answers you want the most. And that’s the experts.

Leading housing experts are starting to release their projections for the rest of the year. These insights will give you clarity – and a little more optimism than you might expect. Business Insider sums up the forecasts (and why they’re good news for you):

“As mortgage rates go down this year, affordability may improve slightly for homebuyers. Inventory is also expected to grow, which should help moderate price growth and make finding a home easier.”

Let’s break it down.

1. Mortgage Rates Should Come Down (Slightly)

While a major drop isn’t on the table, forecasters are calling for a modest decline in rates in the months ahead as the economic outlook becomes more certain. Based on the information we have right now, here’s a look at where they say rates should be by year-end (see graph below):

Even this slight decrease is a welcome change. A seemingly small decline can still help bring down your future mortgage payment and give you a bit more breathing room in your budget.

Just remember, everything from inflation to employment and broader economic shifts will have an impact on where rates go from here. So, don’t try to time the market. And do expect some volatility along the way.

2. Inventory Will Continue To Grow

Inventory has already improved a lot this year. A big portion of the growth the market has already seen is because homeowners are getting tired of sitting on the sidelines. They’ve tried the wait and see approach with rates, and it hasn’t really paid off. And at a certain point, you need to move no matter what the market is doing. This is one reason more homes have been listed lately. And experts say that should continue. As Lance Lambert, Co-founder of ResiClub, says:

“The fact that inventory is rising year-over-year . . . strongly suggests that national active housing inventory for sale is likely to end the year higher.”

If rate forecasts pan out as the experts say, that could be enough to tip some more sellers off the fence and back into the market – giving you even more options for your move.

3. Home Prices Are Moderating

As more homes hit the market, there will also be less upward pressure on home prices. Expert forecasts are still calling for growth, but the pace of that growth is slowing down as inventory climbs. The average of all 7 forecasts shows prices will rise about 2% this year (see graph below):

That means you could finally get a little bit of relief from rapidly rising home prices. When you combine the forecast for healthier price growth with projections for slightly lower mortgage rates, that could mean more buying power in the months ahead.

Keep in mind, though, the housing market is hyper-local. So, this is going to vary by area. Some markets will see prices climbing higher. And some may even see prices dip a little if inventory is up significantly in that location. So, lean on a local agent for insights into what’s happening in your area.

Bottom Line

So, if you want or need to move this year, know that the experts say things should start looking up. And an agent can help you take advantage of any market shifts that work in your favor.