Fear of a recession is back in the headlines. And if you’re thinking about buying or selling sometime soon, that may leave you wondering if you should reconsider the timing of your move.

A recent survey by John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM) shows 68% of people are delaying plans to buy or sell due to economic uncertainty.

But it may not be for the reason you think. Not everyone is holding off because they’re worried. Some buyers are waiting because they’re hopeful. According to Realtor.com:

“In 2025Q1, 3 in 10 (29.8% of) surveyed homebuyers said a recession would make them at least somewhat more likely to purchase a home . . . This reflects a common dynamic where some buyers see a downturn as an opportunity. If the economy enters a recession, the Federal Reserve may respond by lowering interest rates to stimulate activity, potentially putting downward pressure on mortgage rates and easing affordability concerns. As a result, buyers—especially those with limited down payments—might view a recession as a more favorable time to enter the market.”

And there’s some truth to the idea that a recession could bring about lower mortgage rates. History shows mortgage rates usually drop during economic slowdowns. That’s not guaranteed – but it is a common pattern. Looking at data from the last six recessions, you can see mortgage rates fell each time (see graph below): 

But here’s what those buyers may not be considering. Many of those hopeful buyers are assuming something else will happen too – that home prices will drop. And that’s where history tells a different story.

According to data from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), home prices went up in four of the last six recessions (see graph below)

So, while many people think that if a recession hits, home prices will fall like they did in 2008, that was an exception, not the rule. It was the only time the market saw such a steep drop in prices. And it hasn’t happened since, mainly because there’s still a long-standing inventory deficit, even as the number of homes on the market is rising.

Since prices tend to stay on whatever path they’re already on, know this: prices are still holding steady or rising in most metros, although at a much slower pace. So, a big drop isn’t likely. As Robert Frick, Corporate Economist with Navy Federal Credit Union, explains:

“Hopes that an economic slowdown will depress housing prices are wishful thinking at this point . . .”

Bottom Line

If you’ve been waiting for a recession to make your move, it’s important to understand what really happens during one – and what likely won’t. Lower mortgage rates could be on the table. But lower home prices? That’s far less likely.

Don’t wait for a market that may never come. If you’re thinking about buying or selling, connect with an agent to talk through what today’s economy really means for you – and make a smart plan that works in your favor, regardless of what the headlines say.

Life can feel a bit unpredictable these days. What’s happening with inflation? The economy? The housing market? But in the middle of all that uncertainty, there’s one thing a lot of people still crave – a place to call their own.

Because when everything else feels up in the air, home can be the thing that grounds you. As the experts at 1000WATT put it:

“Homeownership isn’t primarily financial anymore. . . Across all demographics, emotional and lifestyle factors consistently outrank wealth-building as motivators.”

Here’s what owning a home can mean for you, especially right now.

Freedom To Make It Yours

When you’re a homeowner, you don’t need to ask permission to paint a wall, hang a gallery of your favorite art, or redo the floors. You have the freedom to create a space that reflects who you are, all the way from the light fixtures to the paint colors.

Pro Tip: Just be mindful about exterior changes, if you buy a home in a community that has a homeowner’s association (HOA). There may be some approvals you’d need to get for select outdoor changes.

More Privacy, More Peace

Owning your home can give you a sense of peace you didn’t even realize you were missing. It’s a comfortable place where you feel secure and can relax, enjoy your privacy, and unwind after a long day.

Room To Grow

Whether it’s starting a family, setting up a home office for your new career, or finally building that home gym in the garage so you can hit your fitness goals, owning gives you the space to live life on your terms.

A Stronger Sense of Community

When you own, you’re not just passing through, you’re putting down roots. That often leads to stronger ties with your community, more connection to your neighborhood, and a deeper feeling of belonging where you live. That’s very different from the temporary nature of renting.

A Feeling of Accomplishment

There’s something powerful about getting the keys and walking into your own front door for the first time. It’s more than pride, it’s personal satisfaction. A quiet and meaningful sense of “I did this.”

Sure, it’s not always easy for first-time homebuyers right now. The market today requires patience, strategy, and sometimes a little creative problem-solving. But it’s still worth it. As Realtor.com says:

“Buying a home is a major commitment, but it’s also incredibly rewarding.”

When you get those keys in your hand, when you realize this place is where your life gets to unfold, it clicks. The stress, the waiting, the planning – all of it led you home.

Bottom Line

There are a lot of things out of your control right now. But building a life in a space that’s truly yours? That’s still possible with the right strategy and expert help. Talk to a local agent about how to make it happen. 

What would it mean for you to finally have a place to call your own?

Are you thinking about buying a home, but not sure if now’s the right time? A lot of people are waiting and wondering what the market’s going to do next. But here’s something only the savviest buyers realize:

This summer might actually be the best time to buy in years. Here are three big reasons why.

1. You Have More Negotiating Power

After several years of sellers having all the leverage, things are starting to shift. Check out the graph below. It uses data from Redfin to show that right now, there are more sellers active in the market than buyers:

Take a look at what happened back in 2021 through roughly 2023. In that time period, there were far more buyers (the blue line) looking to buy than homes for sale (the green line). That’s what drove the intense competition, bidding wars, and the exponential price growth the market saw back then.

Now, the market has shifted, and buyers are regaining their negotiating power as a result. With more sellers than buyers, sellers may be more willing to pay for repairs, cover some of your closing costs, or lower their asking price. The return of this kind of normal balance is a sign of a much healthier, more sustainable market. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist of the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:

“ . . . with housing inventory levels reaching five-year highs, homebuyers in nearly every region of the country are in a better position to negotiate more favorable terms.”

And just in case you’re worried there are too many homes on the market, here’s what you should know. Overall inventory is still lower than normal, so you don’t have to worry about a nationwide oversupply or a crash.

2. You Have More Choices

The number of homes for sale has improved a lot. Based on the latest data from Realtor.com, more homes were listed this May than in May 2024 or May 2023 (see graph below):

And more homes for sale means more choices. There’s a good chance your perfect match just hit the market – or it will soon. So, it’s a great time to explore what’s out there. As Jake Krimmel, Economist at Realtor.com, says:

“With more fresh inventory hitting the market, buyers have better opportunities to find a home that fits their needs.”

3. You May See More Flexibility on Price

With more homes for sale, they’re not selling at the same frenzied pace they were just a few years ago.

Since homes are taking more time to sell, some sellers are choosing to lower their asking prices to draw buyers back in or speed up the process. And that’s to-be-expected. According to Realtor.com, 19.1% of listings had a price cut this May (see graph below):

That’s the fifth straight month where more sellers have reduced their price. And, as of May, the volume of price cuts is back at normal levels. This is yet another sign of the return to a more balanced market.

While you shouldn’t expect a big discount, you may find sellers are a bit more flexible right now. As a recent article from The Street says:

“Although sellers have had the upper hand in the housing market over the past few years, houses are now staying on the market for longer, shifting negotiating power back to homebuyers.”

Just remember, most sellers still aren’t adjusting their prices – just the ones who overpriced to start with. So, this isn’t a sign of a crash, it’s a sign of some sellers having outdated expectations in a shifting market.

Bottom Line

This summer brings a powerful combo for buyers: more homes to choose from, less competition, and sellers being more flexible on pricing. If you’re ready to make a move, connect with a local real estate agent. They’d love to help you take the next step.

What would finding the right home this summer mean for your next chapter?