Recession talk is all over the news, and the odds of a recession are rising this year. And that leaves people wondering what would happen to the housing market if we do go into a recession.

Let’s take a look at some historical data to show what’s happened in housing for each recession going all the way back to the 1980s.

A Recession Doesn’t Mean Home Prices Will Fall

Many people think that if a recession hits, home prices will fall like they did in 2008. But that was an exception, not the rule. It was the only time we saw such a steep drop in prices. And it hasn’t happened since.

In fact, according to data from CoreLogic, in four of the last six recessions, home prices actually went up (see graph below):

So, if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, don’t assume a recession will lead to a crash in home prices. The data simply doesn’t support that idea. Instead, home prices usually follow whatever trajectory they’re already on. And right now, nationally, home prices are still rising at a more normal pace.

Mortgage Rates Typically Decline During Recessions

While home prices tend to stay on their current path, mortgage rates usually drop during economic slowdowns. Again, looking at data from the last six recessions, mortgage rates fell each time (see graph below):

So, a recession means mortgage rates could decline based on the data. While that would help with affordability, don’t expect the return of a 3% rate.

Bottom Line

The answer to the recession question is still unknown, but the odds have gone up. But that doesn’t mean you have to wonder about the impact on the housing market – historical data tells us what usually happens.

When you hear talk about a possible recession, what concerns or questions come to mind about buying or selling a home?

Spring is in full swing, and the housing market is picking up along with it. And if you’ve been wondering whether now is the right time to buy or sell, here’s the inside scoop on why this spring may be a great time to make your move.

1. There Are More Homes for Sale

After a long stretch of tight inventory, the number of homes for sale is finally improving. According to recent national data from Realtor.com, active listings are up 27.5% compared to this time last year.

Look at the graph below and follow the green line for 2025. You can see, even though inventory levels still haven’t returned to pre-pandemic norms (shown in gray), that number is higher than it has been going into the spring market over the past few years (see graph below):

Buyers: This means you have more choices, and you can be more selective.

Sellers: With more homes available than in recent years, you’re more likely to find what you’re looking for when you move. And knowing that inventory is still below more normal levels means there will be demand for your home when you sell it, too.

2. Home Price Growth Is Moderating

As inventory grows, the pace of home price growth is slowing down – and that will continue into the spring market. This is because prices are driven by supply and demand. When there are more homes for sale, buyers have more options, so there’s less competition for each house. Rising supply and less buyer competition causes price growth to slow, but it should still remain positive in most markets. As Freddie Mac says:

“In 2025, we expect the pace of house price appreciation to moderate from the levels seen in 2024, while still maintaining a positive trajectory.”

And while prices aren’t dropping at the national level, every market is different. Some areas are seeing stronger price growth, while others are cooling off or even seeing some price declines.

Buyers: The slower pace of growth means prices aren’t rising as quickly as before – and that’s a relief. Any home you buy now is likely to appreciate in value over time, helping you build equity.

Sellers: While prices are still rising, you might need to adjust your expectations. Overpricing your house in a more balanced market could mean it takes longer to sell. Pricing your house competitively is going to be key to attracting offers.

3. Mortgage Rates Are Stabilizing

One of the biggest hurdles for buyers over the past couple of years has been high, volatile mortgage rates. But there’s some good news – overall, they’ve stabilized in recent weeks – and have even declined a bit since the beginning of this year. And while that decrease hasn’t been a big drop, stabilizing mortgage rates has helped make buying a home a bit more predictable. According to Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic:

“With the spring homebuying season upon us, the recent improvements in mortgage rates may help invite homebuyers back into the market.”

Buyers: When mortgage rates are more stable, it’s easier to plan ahead because you have a better idea of what your future payment might be. But remember, rates will continue to be volatile. So, lean on your agent and your lender to make sure you know what the latest mortgage rate means for you.

Sellers: Slightly lower rates that are starting to stabilize are encouraging more buyers to move forward with their plans. That’s good for demand when you’re planning to sell your house.

4. More Buyers Are Returning

With more inventory, slowing price growth, and stabilizing mortgage rates, buyers are gaining confidence and coming back into the market. Demand is picking up, and data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) shows an increase in mortgage applications compared to the start of the year (see graph below):

Buyers: Acting sooner rather than later could be a smart move before your competition heats up even more.

Sellers: This is great news for you – more buyers mean a better chance of selling your house quickly.

Bottom Line

Do you have questions about what the spring market means for you? Connect with a local real estate agent and talk about how to craft your plan this season.

With more homes for sale, slowing price growth, and stabilizing mortgage rates, how will this impact your decision to buy or sell this spring?

Want to know two reasons this spring might finally be your time to buy? Inventory has grown and sellers may be more willing to negotiate as a result. That means you’ve got more options and more power than buyers have had in years. Let’s break it down.

1. You Have More Homes To Choose From

The number of homes for sale this February was higher than it’s been in any of the past five Februarys – and that’s great news for your home search. The graph below uses the latest data from Realtor.com to show the supply of homes on the market has grown by 27.5% in just the last year:

More choices for your search is a good thing – and experts also say that inventory is projected to continue rising this year, which is even better. It means it should be easier to find something that checks your most important boxes. But that’s not all this does for you. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains some of the other perks of more inventory, beyond just having more homes to consider:

“Buyers will not only have more home options . . . but they are also likely to find somewhat lower asking prices and more time to make decisions – all buyer-friendly factors as we inch closer to the busy homebuying season.”

2. You May Find Sellers Are Doing Price Cuts

Now that buyers have more options, some homes are sitting on the market a little longer – especially those that were priced too high from the start. And the result is more sellers are having to drop their prices to draw buyers back in. Just take a look at the numbers.

According to Realtor.com, the number of listings with price reductions has gone up compared to the last few years (see graph below):

This is a sign sellers are more willing to compromise today. If you look back to more normal years in the market (2017–2019), you’ll see that the number of price cuts happening today is much closer to what’s typical – and for most buyers, that’s a big relief.

What does that mean for you? It could give you a better chance to negotiate – whether that’s on price, closing costs, or even repairs. While not every seller will adjust their price, more of them are willing to do it – giving you more leverage than buyers have in quite a while.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been on the sidelines, waiting for the right time to buy, this spring could be the opening you’ve been hoping for.

Of course, every market is different, and working with a local expert can help you work through your options. If you want to talk about what’s happening in your area or get started on your home search, connect with a local real estate agent.

How does today’s rising inventory impact your homebuying plans?