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National Housing Trends To Watch

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Some Highlights

  • At a national level, the housing market has shifted over the past year.
  • There are more homes for sale, price growth has moderated, and homes are taking a little longer to sell.
  • Do you want to know how your area compares? Connect with a real estate agent to go over what’s happening locally and what this means for you.

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For Sellers

Selling a Luxury House? Here’s Why Now Is a Good Time

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If you own a luxury house, you’re in a stronger spot than most sellers right now. While much of the market has cooled, the high-end tier hasn’t. Sale prices and buyer demand are both up. So if you’re considering selling, now could be a great time to make your move.

Luxury Is Leading on Price

Let’s start with prices. But before we get into it – what actually counts as a luxury home? Generally, these are homes in the top 5% price range for the area, so it varies depending on where you live.

But what’s interesting is that according to the latest data from Redfin, sale prices for luxury houses have risen about three times faster than for non-luxury.

Right now, the typical home’s sale price is up about 1.5% year-over-year. But high-end homes? Their sale prices have gone up nearly 5% since last year (see graph below):

a graph of sales

That’s a bigger deal than it sounds like.

Despite all the talk about slowing price growth lately, sale prices in this segment of the market may be rising faster than you’d expect based on the headlines. That’s going to be a good thing if you’re thinking about selling. And rising sale prices are only half the story.

Buyers Are Showing Up, Too

While so many headlines are talking about how buyers are pulling back, that’s not necessarily true when it comes to luxury homes. In fact, right now, it looks like the higher the price point, the more active the buyers.

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist with the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:

The luxury market has really performed better compared to the lower price point. . . . if we look at price points, any home priced under $250,000, virtually no change in unit sales from one year ago. Then you go into the upper price category, and home sales are up about 10% from one year ago. But the million dollar-plus homes, it is up by 18% from one year ago.

Basically, more homes are selling on the upper end of the market. A big reason is that high-end buyers tend to feel less of the affordability pressure weighing on many households today, so they keep buying even when the wider market slows.

That demand also means that luxury houses don’t stay on the market as long as they used to.

Luxury Houses Are Selling Relatively Quickly

According to the most recent data from Redfin, for luxury homes the median number of days on market is under 50. That’s much faster than pre-pandemic norms going even as far back as 2014 (see graph below):

a graph of sales in a market

That means you probably won’t spend a ton of time sitting in limbo wondering when you’ll get an offer.

Bottom Line

Selling a high-end house is a big decision, and you deserve to feel confident going in. With sale prices climbing and buyers active at the top, this is a strong window to make your move.

When you’re ready to cash in, connect with a local real estate agent to talk strategy.

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Buying Tips

More Homes, Better Prices: A Buyer’s Summer

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If you’ve thought about buying a home in the past few years, you may have run into two frustrations: asking prices that kept climbing and too few homes to choose from.

In many places, both sticking points are letting up this summer, with lower asking prices and more homes for sale. Let’s look at the trends, and what they mean for your search.

Sellers Are Pricing To Attract Buyers

According to Realtor.com, the national median asking price was $430,000 in June, nearly $11,000 under what it was the year before (see graph below):

a graph of sales

That’s the eighth month in a row that the typical asking price has dipped below where they were the previous year, according to the same Realtor.com report.

And while falling prices can sound worrying, this isn’t a sign of an impending crash. We’re talking about asking prices, not sold prices. This is a sign that today’s sellers are meeting the market where it is and pricing to draw buyers. And that’s actually something normal we’d expect from the market. As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, puts it:

“Sellers are reading market conditions and are pricing accordingly from the start rather than listing high and cutting later, and buyers are taking note and making bids. This is a welcome sign that we are in a functioning market.

Asking prices were never going to climb forever – now they’re just settling closer to what buyers can actually pay. That signals a healthier market, and sellers re-adjusting their expectations. 

More Homes Are Available Now

If you’ve spent the past few years watching homes disappear before you could even schedule a tour, this is for you.

Supply is starting to catch up. According to Realtor.com, the number of homes listed for sale in June was the highest June number we’ve seen in three years (see graph below):

a graph with numbers and a number of blue bars

This means more options for you and less competition for each one.

Now, supply is not back to normal everywhere. As you can see, we’re still down from where we were back in 2017-2019. But in many places, it’s better than it’s been in a while. Here’s how that helps you.

You don’t have to rush an offer just to stay in the running, and you have better odds of finding and landing the right home, not just the one that’s available. Plus, you’ll have more room to negotiate, so you’re searching from a stronger position than buyers had even a year ago.

Why This Is Encouraging if You’re Buying Your First Home

For first-time buyers looking for lower-priced homes, these trends line up especially well. Mischa Fisher, Chief Economist at Zillow, explains:

“The lowest price tiers are exhibiting some softness in terms of price, they also had the most listing-activity growth, the first time since 2022 that’s been the case.”

So, if you’re searching for your first place or your next house, there’s a little more to choose from and a little more give on price.

Bottom Line

If a tight budget or a thin selection has kept you from buying a home, now might be the time to restart your search.

Connect with a local real estate agent to see what’s available where you’re looking.

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Affordability

What To Expect from the Housing Market in the Second Half of 2026

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If the first half of this year has left you feeling stuck, you’re not the only one. Mortgage rates stayed higher than people wanted. Affordability remained tight. And uncertainty overseas added another layer of pressure nobody saw coming.

That’s why so many people are asking the same question: Will the second half of the year be any better for the housing market?

While nobody has a crystal ball, there are a few encouraging signs things could start moving in a better direction. Here’s what to watch.

Mortgage Rates Could Be Near a Turning Point 

One of the biggest reasons mortgage rates haven’t come down yet is inflation. And higher energy prices and uncertainty overseas are at least part of the reason inflation is still elevated. The encouraging news?

Oil prices have already started coming back down.

That may not sound like it has much to do with buying a home. But historically, mortgage rates and oil prices tend to move in the same direction.

Take a look at the graph below. Generally, they rise and fall together. Both went up in February when the conflict began. While there’s been some volatility lately, experts at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) say oil prices are forecast to come down. And since oil prices have been on an overall downward trend lately, mortgage rates could come down too:

a graph showing the price of a mortgage rate

It’s too soon to say exactly when that will happen (or by how much they’ll fall), but if energy prices go down, inflation cools off, and tensions overseas ease, mortgage rates could come down in the second half of the year.

And that’s good news for anyone thinking about moving. The first half of the year tested everyone’s patience. The second half may finally reward it.

Home Prices Could Pick Back Up

A lot of people want home prices to fall too. But that’s not what most forecasts show.

While price trends are going to vary by area, and some places are seeing mild declines, experts still expect home prices to net positive this year at the national level.

In fact, they’re projecting prices will rise by an average of 2.3% in 2026 (see graph below):

a graph of blue rectangular objects

What does that mean for you? Right now, Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)data shows prices are up about 1.7% nationally year-over-year. The average forecast for all of 2026? 2.3%.

Based on those projections, home price growth would have to pick up a bit during the second half of the year. Nothing dramatic, just enough to finish the year around that projected 2.3% gain.

Here’s why that’s possible.

The number of homes for sale has grown, but that growth may be starting to slow down. And if rates improve, more buyers could jump back into the market. More buyers competing could put modest upward pressure on prices, especially if inventory’s not growing as fast.

That’s why buyers shouldn’t assume waiting will guarantee a lower price later. And for sellers, that’s great news if you’ve been worried about your home’s value.

More Homes Are Expected To Sell

If you’ve been wondering why the housing market has felt quieter lately, you’re not imagining it. Home sales have been slower than many experts expected. But that doesn’t mean people have stopped wanting to move.

A lot of people still want or need to make a change. They’ve just been waiting for more certainty, better affordability, or a clearer read on where the market is headed. And early signs show that may be on the horizon. 

If rates ease and confidence improves, more people may finally move. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, explains:

Overall, we expect pent-up demand to continue emerging gradually. But the pace of recovery will vary significantly across markets and will depend on the path of rates, labor market conditions and inventory growth.” 

Based on the latest forecasts, to hit the number of sales expected this year, here’s what would have to happen. The second half of the year would need to outperform the first in sales (see graph below):

a graph of sales and statistics

In fact, each month for the rest of 2026 would have to come close to matching the best month we’ve had so far this year (May). That’s a sign the experts are calling for more momentum headed into the second half.

More people will finally make their move happen – and you’ve got the chance to be one of them.

Bottom Line

The second half of the year probably won’t be perfect. But it could be better.

Mortgage rates may ease. Home sales could pick up. And prices are expected to continue rising at a healthier, more sustainable pace. If you’ve been waiting for signs of progress, this is it.

If you want to understand what these forecasts mean for your plans and what’s happening in your local market, connect with an agent.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.