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Why Home Prices Aren’t Actually Flat

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If you’ve been following real estate news lately, you’ve probably seen headlines saying home prices are flat. And at first glance, that sounds simple enough. But here’s the thing. The reality isn’t quite that straightforward.

In most places, prices aren’t flat at all.

What the Data Really Shows

While we’ve definitely seen prices moderate from the rapid and unsustainable climb in 2020-2022, how much they’ve changed is going to be different everywhere.

If you look at data from ResiClub and Zillow for the 50 largest metros, this becomes very clear. The real story is split right down the middle. Half of the metros are still seeing prices inch higher. The other half? Prices are coming down slightly (see graph below).

a graph of prices on a dark backgroundThe big takeaway here is “flat” doesn’t mean prices are holding steady everywhere. What the numbers actually show is how much price trends are going to vary depending on where you are.

One factor that’s driving the divide? Inventory. The Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) of Harvard University explains:

“ . . . price trends are beginning to diverge in markets across the country. Prices are declining in a growing number of markets where inventories have soared while they continue to climb in markets where for-sale inventories remain tight.”

When you average those very different trends together, you get a number that looks like it’s flat. But it doesn’t give you the real story and it’s not what most markets are feeling today. You deserve more than that.

And just in case you’re really focusing on the declines, remember those are primarily places where prices rose too much, too fast just a few years ago. Prices went up roughly 50% nationally over the past 5 years, and even more than that in some of the markets that are experiencing a bigger correction today. So, a modest drop in some local pockets still puts most of those homeowners ahead when it comes to the overall value of their home. And based on the fundamentals of today’s housing market, experts are not projecting a national decline going forward.

So, what’s actually important for you to know?

If You’re Buying…

You need to know what’s happening in your area because that’s going to influence everything from how quickly you need to make an offer to how much negotiating power you’ll have once you do.

  • In a market where prices are still inching up, waiting around could mean paying more down the line.
  • In a market where they’re easing, you may be able to ask for things like repairs or closing cost help to sweeten the deal.

The bottom line? Knowing your local trend puts you in the driver’s seat. 

If You’re Selling…

You’ll want to be aware of local trends, so you’ll know how to price your house and how much you can expect to negotiate.

  • In a market where prices are still rising, you may not need to make many compromises to get your home sold.
  • But if you’re in a market where prices are coming down, setting the right price from the start and being willing to negotiate becomes much more important.

The big action item for homeowners? Sellers need to have an agent’s local perspective if they want to avoid making the wrong call on pricing – and homes that are priced right are definitely selling.

The Real Story Is Local

The national averages can point to broad trends, and that’s helpful context. But sometimes you’re going to need a local point of view because what’s happening in your zip code could look different. As Anthony Smith, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, article puts it:

“While national prices continued to climb, local market conditions have become increasingly fragmented…This regional divide is expected to continue influencing price dynamics and sales activity as the fall season gets underway.

That’s why the smartest move, whether you’re buying or selling, is to lean on a local agent who’s an expert on your market.

They’ll have the data and the experience to tell you whether prices in your area are holding steady, moving up, or softening a bit – and how that could impact your move.

Bottom Line

Headlines calling home prices flat may be grabbing attention, but they’re not giving you the full picture.

Has anyone taken the time to walk you through what’s happening in your market?

If you want the real story about what prices are doing in your area, connect with a local agent.

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Equity

Are Home Prices Going To Fall?

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It’s one of the biggest hold ups some buyers have right now: “What if I buy, and home prices go down?”

With everything in the news, that concern makes some sense. No one wants to make a big financial decision at the wrong time. But here’s what’s important to know. You don’t want to get hung up on the few places seeing slight declines right now.

When you zoom out and look at the full picture, home prices usually rise over time.

What the Data Really Shows

Take a look at the visual below. It uses data from Case-Shiller and Bilello to show how home prices have changed year by year going all the way back to the 1950s.

Here’s the key takeaway.

Outside of the housing crash, home prices have either held steady or increased in just about every year for decades (see visual below):

a chart of percentages and numbersThat’s a remarkably consistent track record. And it shows something a lot of headlines miss.

While short-term shifts can happen, it’s the long-term gains that really matter.

Why Prices Tend To Rise Over Time

There are a few core reasons prices usually go up each year:

  • There are always people who need to move. People need a place to live, and that demand will never fully go away. It may ebb and flow, but someone will always have to move as big changes happen in their life. So, homes stay in demand.
  • There still aren’t enough homes for sale. While the number of homes for sale has grown, nationally there’s still an undersupply based on how many people want a home. That keeps upward pressure on prices.
  • Inflation has an impact. Over time, the cost of goods (including homes) naturally increases. That pushes home values higher.

What That Means for You as a Buyer

It’s easy to get caught up in what might happen with home prices next month or next year, especially if you’re a first-time buyer and you’re feeling a little anxious about making such a big financial commitment. But the big picture is clear. Prices usually rise.

That doesn’t mean prices will go up every single year in every market. Real estate is local, and there can be short-term ups and downs. We’re seeing that in some places right now. You can even see it in the few annual dips in the visual above.

But historically, the declines have been temporary.

That’s why it’s generally recommended to buy a home only if you plan to stay for a while – typically at least five years. That’s normally enough time to see your house grow in value. And, it’s enough so you can ride out any short-term changes in the market.

Because when you can do that, something powerful happens. Those rising home values grow your net worth, and by extension, help you build wealth.

The right decision isn’t about timing the market perfectly. It’s about making a move that works for your life and staying in it long enough to benefit from the bigger trend.

Bottom Line

Home prices have a long track record of going up over time. And that’s why buying a home is generally considered a safe long-term investment.

That certainly doesn’t mean you have to buy now. You should only move when it makes sense, and you plan to live there for a while.

But if you’re interested, let this reassure you. If you want to talk about what home prices are doing in our market, your goals, or your timelines, reach out to a local agent.

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Affordability

Could Co-Buying Be the Answer for Some First-Time Buyers?

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For a lot of would-be first-time buyers, affordability is the thing that’s standing in the way. But some buyers are getting creative and finding a way to still make the numbers work – and that’s through co-buying.

The Dream Is Still Alive. The Math Just Isn’t Working for Everyone.

Young people haven’t given up on the dream of owning a home – not even close. According to FirstHome IQ, homeownership still ranks among the top life goals for the next generation.

The problem? 73% of Gen Z and millennial buyers cite affordability as the reason for not making homeownership a priority. And it shows. First-time buyers now make up just 21% of all home purchases, the lowest share since the National Association of Realtors (NAR) started tracking the data in 1981.

But still, some buyers are making it happen. And a portion of them are turning to co-buying to get their foot in the door.

So, What’s Co-Buying?

Co-buying means purchasing a home with someone else, like a friend, sibling, or unmarried partner. You combine incomes, split the down payment, and share monthly costs. For some people, it’s a creative way to turn “someday” into a concrete move-in date that’s just around the corner.

And it’s catching on fast, just look at where things stand today. According to CoBuy.io, 64 million Americans now co-own a home with someone they’re not married to. In fact, 31.5% of home purchases involve co-buyers (see graph below):

Why It Works

Here are just a few of the top reasons buyers are going this route, according to NerdWallet:

  • Quicker path to homeownership: If owning a home is a serious goal for you, buying with someone else can help make that reality on a shorter timeline. Two or more people can save up a down payment a lot faster than one. That’s less time waiting and more time building equity in a place that’s yours.
  • More purchasing power: With multiple incomes going toward the home purchase, you might be able to afford a nicer home or live in a more popular neighborhood. Sometimes teaming up means getting the home you actually want, not just the one you can barely afford on your own.
  • Easier loan qualification: Added income from more than one buyer can also help with your debt-to-income (DTI) ratio, which the lender will calculate based on all the borrowers.
  • Lower housing costs: Splitting up a mortgage payment multiple ways could maybe even make owning less expensive than renting. Plus, sharing costs can make repairs or renovations more manageable, too.

Things To Keep in Mind

If you’re considering going this route, there are some things you’ll want to think over. For starters, co-buying works best with people you trust and share financial goals with. So, before moving forward, make sure everyone agrees on how costs are split, who handles what, and what happens if one person wants to sell down the road.

That’s why a written co-ownership agreement can be a smart move. It keeps everyone on the same page and helps avoid headaches down the line. Think of it less like a legal formality and more like a game plan for your new investment.

Bottom Line

Affordability challenges are real, but they don’t have to mean waiting indefinitely. Co-buying is helping some first-time buyers stop waiting and start putting down roots.

If you’re curious whether it could work for your situation, talk with a local real estate agent. Reach out today and figure out your path to homeownership together.

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Buying Tips

4 Ways To Give Your Offer an Edge This Spring

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Looking to buy a home this season? Here’s what you should know. 

Buyers have more leverage today than they’ve had in years. There are more homes to choose from and, in many areas, sellers are more open to negotiation. 

But that doesn’t mean competition is gone completely. These days, it varies a lot depending on where you’re hoping to move. 

If you’re buying in a popular neighborhood, or in a market where there aren’t many homes for sale, you may still find yourself competing with another buyer.

And that’s especially true in the Spring. Here’s how to stay one step ahead of any competition this season.

Why Your Best Offer Still Matters This Spring

According to experts at Zillow and Realtor.com, Spring is one of the busiest times of year to buy a home.

That’s because many buyers want to move now so they can settle in before the next school year. And when more buyers enter the market, competition naturally picks up. 

So, depending on where you’re buying, you may still need to move quickly and make a strong offer, even though the market overall has moderated. And that’s especially true if you find a home you really love.

This is what you need to know to make your offer stand out.

1. Lead with a Strong, Realistic Offer

It’s tempting to start low and negotiate up. And in some markets, that strategy can work. But if a home is priced well and getting attention, lowballing could hurt your chances.

Instead, focus on making an offer that reflects your local market. As Bankrate explains:

“There is no magic formula for an optimal home offer. Any offer will be heavily dependent on asking price and local market conditions . . . Your real estate agent will know the local market well and can advise what a competitive — but fair — offer will look like in your area.

The goal is to make an offer that makes sense for you and stands out to the seller.  

2. Have a Plan for Competing Offers

If you’ve fallen in love with a home, it’s important to have a plan in case there’s competition from another buyer. One strategy your agent may discuss with you is an escalation clause, which Investopedia explains like this:  

An escalation clause is a way to automatically escalate your bid by a certain dollar amount, up to a certain ceiling, to compete with other bids.

The key is knowing your budget and sticking to it. You don’t want to lose out over a small difference – and this can help prevent that. But you also don’t want to overpay.

Keep in mind that if the appraisal comes in lower than your offer, you may have to make up the difference out of pocket. Your agent can help you weigh those risks and determine the best approach for your situation.

3. Keep Your Offer Clean

Price matters. But sellers also look closely at your offer’s terms. In some cases, a simpler, cleaner offer can stand out – even if it’s not the highest. As Redfin says:

Sellers tend to want clean, straightforward offers with minimal strings attached. Keep your requests simple and focus on the essentials.

Your agent can help you prioritize what matters most, so you’re not giving up things you need, while still making your offer as appealing as possible.

4. Be Flexible Where You Can

Sometimes, what helps your offer the most is understanding what matters to the seller. NerdWallet explains:

As you prepare an offer, you tend to focus on what the seller has (a house) and what you want (their house). But you’ll gain a competitive edge by viewing the transaction from the seller’s eyes: What does the seller want?”

Does the seller need extra time to move out? Or do they want to move as soon as possible? Your agent can talk with the seller’s agent to find out what matters most. Flexibility here can make a big difference in how your offer is received.

Bottom Line

Today’s market may be balancing out, but strong offers still matter – especially during the busy Spring season.

Working with a local agent can help you understand your market and put together an offer that stands out when it matters most.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.