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What a Government Shutdown Really Means for the Housing Market

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There’s been a lot of talk lately about how a government shutdown impacts the housing market. You might be wondering: Is it causing everything to grind to a halt?

The short answer? No.

The housing market doesn’t stop. It keeps moving. Homes are still being bought and sold, contracts are still being signed, and closings are still happening. The difference is that a few parts of the process may slow down a little, but overall, the market continues to function.

Here’s What Typically Happens

Whenever the government shuts down, some federal agencies temporarily close or scale back their operations. That can cause a few hiccups in real estate, especially when it comes to processing certain types of government loans and insurance requirements:

  • Applicants for FHA, VA, or USDA loans—which account for about one-quarter of all mortgage applications—may encounter significant processing delays due to agency furloughs.” – Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at Cotality
  • “By recent estimates, more than 2,500 mortgage originations per working day are at risk of delays during a shutdown . . .”  – Zillow
  • Flood insurance approvals may also be paused. The National Flood Insurance Program can be temporarily affected, which delays closings in flood zones.

Even with those challenges and delays, most transactions still go through. Buyers keep buying, sellers keep selling, and agents keep helping people move forward.

The Housing Market Usually Bounces Back Fast

And you can see that play out in this data. If you look back at the most recent government shutdown that began at the end of 2018 and lasted for 35 days, sales activity dipped very slightly during the closure but picked right back up once the government reopened.

Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows existing home sales slowed for about two months, and then rebounded quickly as delayed closings worked their way through the system when the government reopened (see graph below):

a graph of blue and orange linesWhat’s important to note is that the slowdown you see in the orange bars on this graph wasn’t simply due to seasonality in a typical housing market cycle. The sharper, shorter drop in this case lines up exactly with the 35-day government shutdown, and then sales bounced back as soon as it ended.

What This Means for You

If you’re in the middle of buying or selling a home, don’t panic. Most deals will still move forward, even if it takes a few extra days. Jeff Ostrowski, Housing Market Analyst at Bankrate, explains:

“If you’re expecting to close in a week or a month, there could be some slight delay, but I think for most people, it’s probably going to be a blip more than a real deal killer.

And if you’re just starting to think about buying or selling, this could actually work in your favor. Some buyers and sellers may become cautious and pause their plans during times of uncertainty, like this, and that can open a short window of opportunity.

When fewer people are active in the market, well-prepared buyers may find less competition for homes, and motivated sellers may be more willing to negotiate. These brief slowdowns often create a moment where you can make a move that would be harder once activity ramps back up.

Bottom Line

A government shutdown can cause short-term delays for some buyers, but it doesn’t derail the housing market. The last time this happened, sales picked back up as soon as the government re-opened.

If you’re unsure how this might affect your plans, or just want to make sense of what’s happening, connect with a local real estate agent.

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Affordability

The Case for Putting 20% Down on Your Next Home

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If you’re planning to buy your next home soon, you’ve probably heard the old rule about saving 20% for your down payment.

The truth is, you usually don’t have to. Plenty of loan options let qualified buyers put down much less. But a lot of repeat buyers are choosing to put down 20% anyway.

So, why are they if they don’t have to?

Two reasons. They know a bigger down payment pays off, and after years in their current house, they’ve built up enough equity that it’s finally possible.

Repeat Buyers Put More Money Down

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the typical repeat buyer puts down 23%when they buy a home (see graph below):

a graph of a number of colored squares

That’s more than double the 10% they may have put down as a first-time buyer. So, how do they manage it? Their equity.

When you’ve owned a house for a while, two things tend to happen. One, you pay down your mortgage, and two, your home’s value climbs. The difference between what you still owe on your mortgage and what your house is worth is your equity. And the longer you’ve lived in your house, the bigger that number grows.

When you sell, your equity turns into cash. And NAR data shows most repeat buyers put it straight toward their next down payment (see chart below):

a graph of a financial graph

First-time buyers don’t have that springboard yet, and that’s normal. But if you already own, you may be holding more buying power than you think because of it.

And if putting 20% down is finally possible, it may be worth at least considering. Here’s why. Let’s go over what you get in return.

4 Perks of Putting 20% (or More) Down

As Redfin explains, putting more down pays off in a few ways:

  • A smaller monthly payment. The more you put down, the less you borrow at today’s rates. And if taking on a higher mortgage rate is one of the reasons you’re debating whether to move, that’s a win.

  • Paying less interest. A smaller loan can also carry less interest across the life of your mortgage. If you put 20% down, you’ll only pay interest on the remaining 80%. Put 5% down and you’ll pay interest on the remaining 95%, which will cost you more over the lifetime of the loan.

  • No private mortgage insurance (PMI). When you put down less than 20% on a conventional loan, lenders usually add a monthly fee called private mortgage insurance. With 20% down, PMI isn’t required and that saves your money every month. 

  • A stronger offer. A larger down payment can make your offer more attractive, since sellers tend to read it as a sign your financing is solid and the deal is more likely to close.

Bottom Line

So, no. You don’t need to put 20% down to buy your next home. But you may want to. If your equity puts it within reach, going bigger can lower your costs and make moving more doable than you think – even with today’s rates.

A trusted lender can run the numbers on your financing, and a local agent can help you figure out what your current house could add to your next down payment.

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Affordability

Thinking About Waiting for Lower Mortgage Rates? Read This First.

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Imagine waiting a year to buy a home, only to find mortgage rates haven’t changed much. That may sound frustrating.But it’s a real possibility.

A lot of people are putting their plans on hold because they believe much lower mortgage rates are right around the corner. But, based on today’s forecasts, that may not happen. And you should know that before you decide what to do.

Let’s look at why experts don’t expect a dramatic drop in rates – and the options that could help you buy anyway. Because even if rates don’t fall, you can still move. Here’s how.

1. Mortgage Rates Aren’t Expected To Fall in a Meaningful Way

If you’re waiting for rates to fall, you’re not alone. A recent survey from Clever-Best Interest found 42% of people believe mortgage rates will drop below 5% this year.

The challenge is, that’s not what the experts who study mortgage rates every day are expecting.

Forecasts from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and Wells Fargo all show mortgage rates staying relatively steady in the low-to-mid 6% range through at least mid-2027 (see graph below):

a graph with numbers and lines

Why? Rates are influenced by inflation, the overall economy, Treasury yields, Federal Reserve policy, global events, and a lot of other moving pieces. And right now, those factors simply aren’t pointing toward the kind of dramatic rate drop many buyers are waiting for.

Could rates move a little? Of course. But if you’re holding out for a bigger drop, today’s forecasts suggest you may be waiting a lot longer than you expect.

2. Inflation Is Still Elevated – And That’s Working Against Lower Rates 

One reason experts aren’t expecting rates to fall much? Inflation. Generally speaking, high inflation is the enemy of lower mortgage rates.

And after a period of relative stability from mid 2023 to late 2025, recent data shows inflation has actually been trending higher lately (see graph below):

a graph of a number of people 

In other words, one of the biggest ingredients needed for much lower mortgage rates simply isn’t in place today. That helps explain why experts aren’t forecasting the kind of meaningful decline so many buyers are hoping for.

3. Today’s Rates Aren’t High, They’re “Normal”

And this may be the biggest mindset shift of all. The reality is, while today’s rates may feel high compared to a few years ago, they’re not high. They’re normal.

Historically, mortgage rates have spent the majority of their time somewhere between about 5% and 10%. And data from Freddie Mac shows we’re actually well in that range today. It just feels high because we all remember the ultra-low rates homeowners got during the pandemic (see graph below):

a graph of a graph showing the rise of a mortgage rate 

Now, this doesn’t suddenly make a 6% mortgage feel exciting. But it does remind us that waiting for super low rates again may not be a realistic strategy.

So… What Should You Do Instead?

None of this is meant to convince you that you have to buy today. You don’t. But if you need to because something in your life’s changed, there are still ways to find better affordability without waiting for mortgage rates to fall.

  • Check out newly built homes. Many builders are offering incentives to attract buyers, including price cuts, potentially lower rates, free upgrades, and more.

  • Ask about an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM). If you don’t plan to stay in the home long-term, an ARM may offer a lower initial interest rate than a traditional 30-year fixed mortgage. It’s not the right choice for everyone, but it’s worth asking a lender if it fits your plans.

  • Look into mortgage rate buydowns. This is when you pay upfront to reduce your mortgage rate so you can get for a lower monthly payment without waiting for rates to fall.

  • Find out about assumable mortgages. An assumable mortgage allows you to take over the seller’s existing loan, including its lower mortgage rate.

The important thing is you shouldn’t assume waiting is your only option.

Talk with your real estate agent and lender about whether one of these strategies could be a good fit for you.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been putting your home search on hold because you’re convinced mortgage rates will be much lower soon, it may be worth taking another look at that strategy.

Connect with an agent or lender so you have an expert who can at least walk you through your options and decide whether waiting really puts you in a better position – or just keeps you on the sidelines a little longer.

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Affordability

Buying a Home? Here’s What You Should Know About Home Insurance Costs.

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If buying a home is on your radar, you’ve probably been keeping an eye on mortgage rates and home prices. But don’t forget about homeowners insurance. 

Homeowners insurance has always been part of owning a home. But over the past few years, it’s become a larger expense for many homeowners – something that’s especially frustrating when affordability already feels tight.

The good news? While premiums are still rising, the latest data shows those increases are beginning to slow. Here’s what buyers should know.

Home Insurance Costs Have Gone Up

You’ve probably heard stories from friends or family about their premiums going up. And that’s not really a surprise when you consider data from the Pew Research Center shows 71% of homeowners say their insurance costs have gone up over the past few years.

While no one likes rising costs, knowing what to expect can help you plan ahead. Your first insurance payment is typically included in your closing costs, but after that it’ll become part of your monthly housing expenses.

Getting an insurance quote early can help you build a more realistic budget and avoid surprises later.

Premiums Are Rising, But Not as Fast as They Were

Most of the headlines focus on how home insurance is getting more expensive. And that’s true. But here’s the part that’s easy to miss.

Insurance premiums are still rising.

But they’re not rising as fast as they were.

According to the latest report from Rate Insurance, 2025 saw the first slowdown in annual premium increases since 2019 (see graph below):

a graph of insurance coverage 

That doesn’t mean premiums are getting cheaper. It simply means the rapid increases of the past several years may finally be starting to ease – a small but welcome step in the right direction.

But what you’ll pay in one part of the country can look very different from what someone pays somewhere else.

Where You Buy Can Make a Big Difference

Insurance costs vary because some parts of the country experience more claims than others. That’s why it’s important to look at what’s happening locally.

Your premium will depend on things like where you’re buying, the home itself, and the coverage you choose.

Forbes data can give a rough idea of your state’s typical premiums. Check out the map below – the darker the blue, the higher the costs tend to be in that state:

a map of the united states

Ways To Lower Your Costs

While you can’t control every cost that comes with buying a home, you can control how prepared you are. If you’re crunching the numbers and trying to find ways to save, Insurify and NerdWallet offer these tips that can help you get the best insurance price possible:

  • Shop Around – Compare quotes from multiple companies.

  • Bundle Policies – Combine home and auto to see if a bundle price is cheaper.

  • Ask If There Are Discounts – Don’t miss out on savings you may qualify for.

  • Highlight Upgrades – Features like a new roof or storm windows can cut costs.

  • Improve Your Credit – A stronger credit score can mean better premiums.

One of the smartest things you can do is get an insurance quote before you make an offer. That way, you’ll know what your monthly housing costs are likely to be before you commit.

An insurance professional can walk you through your options and help you find coverage that fits both your needs and your budget.

Bottom Line

Homeowners insurance has become a bigger part of the homebuying conversation. But it doesn’t have to become a bigger source of stress.

The key is knowing what to expect before you buy. Get an insurance quote early, factor it into your budget, and lean on trusted local professionals to help you make the most informed decision possible.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.