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What Is the Strongest Tailwind to Today’s Recovering Economy?

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Last year started off with a bang. Unemployment was under 4%, forecasters were giddy with their projections for the economy, and the residential housing market had the strongest January and February activity in over a decade.

Then came the announcement on March 11, 2020, from the World Health Organization declaring COVID-19 a worldwide pandemic. Two days later, the White House declared it a national emergency. Businesses and schools were forced to close, shelter-in-place mandates were enacted, and the economy came to a screeching halt. As a result, unemployment in this country skyrocketed to 14.9%.

A year later, the economy is recovering, and the U.S. has regained more than half of the jobs that were originally lost. However, some businesses are still closed, and many schools are still struggling to reopen. Despite the past and current challenges, there is one industry that’s proven to be a tailwind helping to counter all of these headwinds to our economy. That industry is housing. Remarkably, the residential real estate market (including existing homes and new construction) has flourished over the last twelve months. Sales are up, prices are appreciating, and more new homes are being built. The housing market has been a pillar of strength in an otherwise slowly recovering economy.

How does the real estate market help the economy?

At the beginning of the pandemic, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released a report that explained:

“Real estate has been, and remains, the foundation of wealth building for the middle class and a critical link in the flow of goods, services, and income for millions of Americans. Accounting for nearly 18% of the GDP, real estate is clearly a major driver of the U.S. economy.”

The report calculated the total economic impact of real estate-related industries on the economy as well as the expenditures that resulted from a single home sale. At a national level, their research revealed that a single newly constructed home had an economic impact of $88,416.

Here’s how it breaks down:What Is the Strongest Tailwind to Today’s Recovering Economy? | Simplifying The MarketThe map below shows the impact by state:What Is the Strongest Tailwind to Today’s Recovering Economy? | Simplifying The MarketThe impact of an existing home sale is approximately $40,000.

Real estate has done more for our economic wellbeing than virtually any other industry over the last year. It’s been a beacon of light during a very challenging time in our nation’s history.

Bottom Line

Whether you’re buying a newly constructed home or one that already exists, you’re making a positive economic impact in your local community – and it’s a step toward your homeownership goals as well.

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Buying Tips

The “Take It or Leave It” Attitude Is Fading from the Market – What That Means for You

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Negotiations are back. More buyers are asking for better deals, and more sellers are giving them. Builders are throwing in extras, too. 

That’s why whether you’re buying or selling today, there are two terms you’ll hear a lot: concession and incentive.

  • A concession is something a seller agrees to during negotiations to get a deal done.

  • An incentive is a perk a builder (or a seller) advertises upfront to attract buyers.

Let’s run through what you need to know about both and how they could play a role in your move.

More Sellers Are Agreeing to Concessions

Almost half (46%) of homeowners who sold recently gave the buyer a concession, according to Redfin. That’s the highest share on record for this time of year. And roughly 1 in 7 (16%) sellers went a step further, cutting their asking price and offering a concession on top (see chart below):

a diagram of a homeowner's market 

So, what kind of concessions are we talking about?

A seller might cover part of your closing costs, take care of a repair, or offer a credit that trims your upfront costs. It’s how they keep a deal on track when buyers have more options to choose from – and homeowners aren’t the only ones compromising.

Builders Are Cutting Prices, Too

Newly built homes are seeing the same push and pull. According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), 62% of builders are offering incentives right now. And about 35% are cutting prices outright (see chart below):

a screenshot of a graph

Those incentives often look like:

  • Price adjustments

  • Mortgage rate buydowns

  • Free upgrades, like nicer finishes or appliances

Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains why:

New construction has been one of the steadiest parts of the housing market over the past few years, but builders are clearly responding to today’s affordability pressures and higher levels of existing-home inventory.”

Even builders, who many people think rarely negotiate, are competing on price and perks. They have been for over a year now. The same data shows this is the 15th straight month where more than 60% of builders have offered incentives to sweeten the deal. And that’s significant.

What This Means for Your Move

If you’re buying, this is a good time to ask. Whether you have your eye on an existing house or a newly built home, there’s a chance the seller or builder will meet you partway on price, terms, or both.

If you’re selling, expect buyers to ask. Even builders of brand-new homes are making concessions more often than not right now. Holding firm on every term could mean more time on the market, or a lost sale altogether.

Bottom Line

Sellers and builders are both giving buyers more to work with this year. A local agent can tell you what to expect in concessions and incentives based on inventory and competition in your local market.

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Affordability

What To Expect from the Housing Market in the Second Half of 2026

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If the first half of this year has left you feeling stuck, you’re not the only one. Mortgage rates stayed higher than people wanted. Affordability remained tight. And uncertainty overseas added another layer of pressure nobody saw coming.

That’s why so many people are asking the same question: Will the second half of the year be any better for the housing market?

While nobody has a crystal ball, there are a few encouraging signs things could start moving in a better direction. Here’s what to watch.

Mortgage Rates Could Be Near a Turning Point 

One of the biggest reasons mortgage rates haven’t come down yet is inflation. And higher energy prices and uncertainty overseas are at least part of the reason inflation is still elevated. The encouraging news?

Oil prices have already started coming back down.

That may not sound like it has much to do with buying a home. But historically, mortgage rates and oil prices tend to move in the same direction.

Take a look at the graph below. Generally, they rise and fall together. Both went up in February when the conflict began. While there’s been some volatility lately, experts at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) say oil prices are forecast to come down. And since oil prices have been on an overall downward trend lately, mortgage rates could come down too:

a graph showing the price of a mortgage rate

It’s too soon to say exactly when that will happen (or by how much they’ll fall), but if energy prices go down, inflation cools off, and tensions overseas ease, mortgage rates could come down in the second half of the year.

And that’s good news for anyone thinking about moving. The first half of the year tested everyone’s patience. The second half may finally reward it.

Home Prices Could Pick Back Up

A lot of people want home prices to fall too. But that’s not what most forecasts show.

While price trends are going to vary by area, and some places are seeing mild declines, experts still expect home prices to net positive this year at the national level.

In fact, they’re projecting prices will rise by an average of 2.3% in 2026 (see graph below):

a graph of blue rectangular objects

What does that mean for you? Right now, Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)data shows prices are up about 1.7% nationally year-over-year. The average forecast for all of 2026? 2.3%.

Based on those projections, home price growth would have to pick up a bit during the second half of the year. Nothing dramatic, just enough to finish the year around that projected 2.3% gain.

Here’s why that’s possible.

The number of homes for sale has grown, but that growth may be starting to slow down. And if rates improve, more buyers could jump back into the market. More buyers competing could put modest upward pressure on prices, especially if inventory’s not growing as fast.

That’s why buyers shouldn’t assume waiting will guarantee a lower price later. And for sellers, that’s great news if you’ve been worried about your home’s value.

More Homes Are Expected To Sell

If you’ve been wondering why the housing market has felt quieter lately, you’re not imagining it. Home sales have been slower than many experts expected. But that doesn’t mean people have stopped wanting to move.

A lot of people still want or need to make a change. They’ve just been waiting for more certainty, better affordability, or a clearer read on where the market is headed. And early signs show that may be on the horizon. 

If rates ease and confidence improves, more people may finally move. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, explains:

Overall, we expect pent-up demand to continue emerging gradually. But the pace of recovery will vary significantly across markets and will depend on the path of rates, labor market conditions and inventory growth.” 

Based on the latest forecasts, to hit the number of sales expected this year, here’s what would have to happen. The second half of the year would need to outperform the first in sales (see graph below):

a graph of sales and statistics

In fact, each month for the rest of 2026 would have to come close to matching the best month we’ve had so far this year (May). That’s a sign the experts are calling for more momentum headed into the second half.

More people will finally make their move happen – and you’ve got the chance to be one of them.

Bottom Line

The second half of the year probably won’t be perfect. But it could be better.

Mortgage rates may ease. Home sales could pick up. And prices are expected to continue rising at a healthier, more sustainable pace. If you’ve been waiting for signs of progress, this is it.

If you want to understand what these forecasts mean for your plans and what’s happening in your local market, connect with an agent.

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Buying Tips

Student Loans Are Back in the News. Don’t Let It Put Your Homeownership Plans on Hold.

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Student loans are back in the spotlight. And whether you’ve been following the headlines closely or just catching bits and pieces here and there, there’s a good chance they’ve been on your mind lately.

And if you’re questioning whether you have to hit pause on your plans to buy a home, here’s the thing you have to remember:

Having student loans doesn’t automatically mean buying a home has to wait.

The Biggest Myth About Student Loans and Buying a Home

One of the most common misconceptions among first-time buyers is that they have to pay off their student loans before they can qualify for a mortgage. But in most cases, that’s just not true. 

As an article from Redfin explains, student loans usually get evaluated the same way other debts do, like credit cards or car payments:

“Yes, you can get a mortgage with student loan debt. Lenders primarily assess your debt-to-income (DTI) ratio, which compares your monthly debt payments, including student loans, to your gross monthly income. Having student debt doesn’t automatically disqualify you if your DTI is within acceptable limits.”

So having that loan on your credit report isn’t some special red flag that immediately disqualifies you.

Instead, lenders look at your overall financial situation, including your income, credit history, and more. Student loans are one piece of that puzzle, but they’re not the entire picture.

You’re in Better Company Than You Think

Just to really drive this home, here’s a stat from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) that proves you can have student debt and still buy a home. Their research shows 33% of first-time homebuyers still had student loan debt.

a graph of a student loan debt

That’s 1 out of every 3 first-time buyers. The median amount they owed? $30,400.

Let that reassure you that people are buying homes with student debt every day. And carrying student loans doesn’t automatically put homeownership out of reach.

Don’t Count Yourself Out Before You Even Try

At the end of the day, here’s where a lot of buyers trip themselves up. They assume the worst and never even check what they could actually qualify for. But your situation is more unique than a blanket “no.”

If your income is steady and the rest of your finances are in decent shape, buying a home could be more realistic than you think. The only way to know for sure is to actually run the numbers with someone who does this for a living.

You may discover you’re closer to buying than you think.

Bottom Line

Student loans don’t have to be the thing standing between you and owning a home. If you’ve been putting off your homebuying plans because of that debt, talk to a lender about your options. It may not be the barrier you think it is.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.