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Do Elections Impact the Housing Market?

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The 2024 Presidential election is just months away. As someone who’s thinking about potentially buying or selling a home, you’re probably curious about what effect, if any, elections have on the housing market.

It’s a great question because buying or selling a home is a major decision, and it’s natural to wonder how such a major event might impact your plans.

Historically, Presidential elections have only had a small, temporary impact on the housing market. Here’s the latest on exactly what’s happened to home sales, prices, and mortgage rates throughout those time periods.

Home Sales

During the month of November, in years when the Presidential election takes place, there’s typically a slight slowdown in home sales. As Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, explains:

“Usually, home sales are unchanged compared to a non-election year with the exception being November. In an election year, November is slower than normal.

This is mostly because some people feel uncertain and hesitant about making big decisions during such a pivotal time. However, it’s important to know this slowdown is temporary. Historically, home sales bounce back in December and continue to rise the following year.

In fact, data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows after nine of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales went up the next year (see graph below): No Caption Received

The graph shows annual home sales going back to 1978. Each year with a Presidential election is noted in blue. The year immediately after each election is green if existing home sales rose that year. The two orange bars represent the only years when home sales decreased after an election.

Home Prices

What about home prices? Do they drop during election years? Not typically. As residential appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist puts it:

“An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”

Home prices are pretty resilient. They generally rise year-over-year, regardless of elections. The latest data from NAR shows after seven of the last eight Presidential elections, home prices increased the following year (see graph below): No Caption Received

Just like the previous graph, this shows election years in blue. The only year when prices declined after an election is in orange. That was during the housing market crash, which was far from a typical year. Today’s market is different than it was back then.

All the green bars represent when prices rose the following year. So, if you’re worried about your home losing value because of an election, you can rest easy knowing prices rise after most Presidential elections.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates are important because they affect how much your monthly payment will be when you buy a home. Looking at the last 11 Presidential election years, data from Freddie Mac shows mortgage rates decreased from July to November in eight of them (see chart below): No Caption Received

Most forecasts expect mortgage rates to ease slightly throughout the remainder of the year. If they’re right, this year will follow the trend of declining rates leading up to most previous elections. And if you’re looking to buy a home in the coming months, this could be good news, as lower rates could mean a lower monthly payment.

What This Means for You

So, what’s the big takeaway? While Presidential elections do have some impact on the housing market, the effects are usually small and temporary. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says:

“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”

For most buyers and sellers, elections don’t have a major impact on their plans.

Bottom Line

While it’s natural to feel a bit uncertain during an election year, history shows the housing market remains strong and resilient. If you have questions, reach out to a local real estate agent. They’re here to help you navigate the market, election year or not.

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For Buyers

Housing Market Forecasts for the Rest of 2025

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If you’ve been watching the market, you’ve likely noticed a few changes already this year. But what’s next? From home prices to mortgage rates, here’s what the latest expert forecasts suggest for the rest of 2025 – and what these shifts could mean for you.

Will Home Prices Fall?

Many buyers are hoping home prices will come down soon. And recent headlines about prices dipping in some areas are making some people believe it’s just a matter of time before there’s a bigger drop. But here are the facts.

While home price growth is slowing down, that doesn’t mean we’re headed for a crash. As NAHB explains:

“House price growth slowed . . . partly due to a decline in demand and an increase in supply. Persistent high mortgage rates and increased inventory combined to ease upward pressure on house prices. These factors signaled a cooling market, following rapid gains seen in previous years.”

But experts say, even with that slowdown, prices will still rise this year at the national level. The average of 8 leading forecasters shows prices are expected to go up 1.5-2% in 2025 (see graph below):

That means, if you’re waiting for a major drop, experts agree that’s just not in the cards.

Keep in mind, while some markets are already seeing prices come down slightly, the average dip is just -3.5%. That’s a far cry from the nearly 20% decline the market experienced during the 2008 crash.

Plus, those small changes are easily absorbed when you consider how much home prices have climbed over the past few years. Data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) shows prices are up 55% nationally compared to just 5 years ago.

The takeaway? Prices aren’t crashing. They’re expected to keep climbing – just not as quickly these days. And some may argue they’ll be closer to flat by the end of this year. But, again, this is going to vary by market, with some local ups and downs. So, lean on a pro to see the latest price trends for your area.

Will Mortgage Rates Come Down?

Another common thought among today’s buyers is: I’m just going to wait for rates to come down. But is that a smart strategy? According to Yahoo Finance:

“If you’re looking for a substantial interest rate drop in 2025, you’ll likely be left waiting. The latest news from the Federal Reserve and other key economic data point toward steady mortgage rates on par with what we see today.”

In other words, don’t try to time the market or wait for a drop that may not be coming. Most experts say rates will remain in the 6s, and current projections have them settling in the mid-6% range by the end of this year (see chart below):

a blue rectangular table with white textAnd that’s not a big change from where they are right now. So, if you need to move, let’s talk about how to make it happen and what you should watch for. Because while rates may not be as low as you want them to be, you don’t want to put your needs on the back burner, hoping for something the data shows isn’t likely to happen.

Working with an expert who is keeping an eye on all the economic factors that can influence mortgage rates is going to be essential this year. That’s because changes in things like inflation and other key drivers could impact how rates move going forward. 

The Takeaway for Buyers and Sellers

Whether you’re buying, selling, or thinking about doing both, this market requires strategy, not guesswork. Prices are still rising nationally (just more slowly), and rates are projected to stay pretty much where they are, so the bigger picture is one of moderation – not a meltdown.

Bottom Line

If you want to make a move, your best bet is to focus on your personal situation – not what the headlines say – and work with a real estate pro who knows how to navigate the shifting conditions in your local market.

 

Connect with a local agent to go over what’s happening in your area and build a plan that works for you.

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For Buyers

The U.S. Foreclosure Map You Need To See

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Foreclosure headlines are making noise again – and they’re designed to stir up fear to get you to read them. But what the data shows is actually happening in the market tells a very different story than what you might be led to believe. So, before you jump to conclusions, it’s important to look at the full picture.

Yes, foreclosure starts are up 7% in the first six months of the year. But zooming out shows that’s nowhere near crisis levels. Here’s why.

Filings Are Still Far Below Crash Levels

Even with the recent uptick, overall foreclosure filings are still very low. In the first half of 2025, just 0.13% of homes had filed for foreclosure. That’s less than 1% of homes in this country. In fact, it’s even far less than that at under a quarter of a percent. That’s a very small fraction of all the homes out there. But like with anything else in real estate, the numbers vary by market.

Here’s the map you need to see that shows how foreclosure rates are lower than you might think, and how they differ by local area:

a map of the united statesFor context, data from ATTOM shows in the first half of 2025, 1 in every 758 homes nationwide had a foreclosure filing. Thats the 0.13% you can see in the map above. But in 2010, back during the crash? Mortgage News Daily says it was 1 in every 45 homes.

Today’s Numbers Don’t Indicate a Market in Trouble

But here’s what everyone remembers…

Leading up to the crash, risky lending practices left homeowners with payments they eventually couldn’t afford. That led to a situation where many homeowners were underwater on their mortgages. When they couldn’t make their payments, they had no choice but to walk away. Foreclosures surged, and the market ultimately crashed.

Today’s housing market is very different. Lending standards are stronger. Homeowners have near record levels of equity. And when someone hits financial trouble, that equity means many people can sell their home rather than face foreclosure. As Rick Sharga, Founder of CJ Patrick Company, explains:

“. . . a significant factor contributing to today’s comparatively low levels of foreclosure activity is that homeowners—including those in foreclosure—possess an unprecedented amount of home equity.”

No one wants to see a homeowner struggle. But if you’re a homeowner facing hardship, talk to your mortgage provider. You may have more options than you think.

Bottom Line

Recent headlines may not tell the whole story, but the data does. Foreclosure activity remains low by historical standards and is not a sign of another crash.

If you’re simply watching the market and want to understand what’s really going on, or how this impacts the value of your home, connect with an agent. They’ll help you separate fact from fear by showing you what the data really says.

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For Buyers

The Latest Mortgage Rate Forecasts

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a screenshot of a graph

Some Highlights

  • If you’re tempted to delay your move in hope that mortgage rates will come down, you may want to rethink that strategy based on the latest forecast.
  • Experts say mortgage rates are projected to stay in the 6s this year. So don’t expect a big drop.
  • If you want to talk about what this means for your move, connect with a real estate agent. As forecasts change, having an expert who can keep you updated is essential.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.