If you paused your plans to move because of high rates or prices, it may finally be time to take a second look at your numbers. Affordability is improving in 39 of the top 50 markets, according to First American. And that’s the 5th straight month where buying a home has started to get a little bit easier.

Let’s break this down into real dollars, so you can see the difference this could make for you (and your move).

Monthly Payments Are Coming Down

One of the clearest signs of this shift is in monthly payments. The latest data from Redfin shows mortgage payments on a median-priced home are now $283 lower than they were just a few months ago (see graph below):

This kind of monthly savings adds up fast, and totals nearly $3,400 over the course of a year.

While this isn’t enough to completely change the affordability game overnight, think about it this way. When you’re putting together a homebuying budget, a few hundred dollars could be the difference between being comfortable buying and feeling like money’s a bit tight.

And from a home-search perspective, it could even be enough to change the price point you can look at. According to Redfin:

“A borrower with a $3,000 monthly budget can now afford a $468,000 home, about $22,000 more than in June.”

And that’s a big deal if you haven’t found a home you love in your price range yet. It gives you a little more flexibility to find the one that’s right for you.

Either way, that’s a big win.

What’s Behind the Shift?

Two key factors are working in your favor right now:

• Mortgage rates have eased from their high earlier this year
• Home price growth is slowing in many markets

Both of those things help your bottom line and give you a bit of breathing room if you’re buying a home. As Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE Mortgage Technology, says:

“The recent pullback in rates has created a tailwind for both homebuyers and existing borrowers. We’re seeing affordability at a 2.5-year high . . .”

Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer or someone looking to move-up into a bigger house, the shifts happening this year could make your move possible. Connect with a trusted agent or lender to see what your monthly payment would look like at today’s rates.

For you, the savings could be the difference between “not yet” and “let’s go.”

Bottom Line

Affordability is improving in many markets. And that resets the math on your move.

If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines, this is your cue to start looking again. Connect with a local agent or trusted lender to run the numbers together so you can get a rough estimate of how much more buying power you may have than you did just a few months ago.

You want mortgage rates to fall – and they’ve started to. But is it going to last? And how low will they go?

Experts say there’s room for rates to come down even more over the next year. And one of the leading indicators to watch is the 10-year treasury yield. Here’s why.

The Link Between Mortgage Rates and the 10-Year Treasury Yield

For over 50 years, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has closely followed the movement of the 10-year treasury yield, which is a widely watched benchmark for long-term interest rates (see graph below):

When the treasury yield climbs, mortgage rates tend to follow. And when the yield falls, mortgage rates typically come down.

It’s been a predictable pattern for over 50 years. So predictable, that there’s a number experts consider normal for the gap between the two. It’s known as the spread, and it usually averages about 1.76 percentage points, or what you sometimes hear as 176 basis points.

The Spread Is Shrinking

Over the past couple of years, though, that spread has been much wider than normal. Why? Think of the spread as a measure of fear in the market. When there’s lingering uncertainty in the economy, the gap widens beyond its usual norm. That’s one of the reasons why mortgage rates have been unusually high over the past few years.

But here’s a sign for optimism. Even though there’s still some lingering uncertainty related to the economy, that spread is starting to shrink as the path forward is becoming clearer (see graph below):

And that opens the door for mortgage rates to come down even more. As a recent article from Redfin explains:

“A lower mortgage spread equals lower mortgage rates. If the spread continues to decline, mortgage rates could fall more than they already have.”

The 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Expected To Decline

It’s not just the spread, though. The 10-year treasury yield itself is also forecast to come down in the months ahead. So, when you combine a lower yield with a narrowing spread, you have two key forces potentially pushing mortgage rates down going into next year.

This long-term relationship is a big reason why you see experts currently projecting mortgage rates will ease, with a fringe possibility they’ll hit the upper 5s toward the end of next year.

Here’s how it works. Take the 10-year treasury yield, which is sitting at about 4.09% at the time this article is being written, and then add the average spread of 1.76%. From there, you’d expect mortgage rates to be around 5.85% (see graph below):

But remember, all of that can change as the economy shifts. And know for certain that there will be ups and downs along the way. 

How these dynamics play out will depend on where the economy, the job market, inflation, and more go from here. But the 2026 outlook is currently expected to be a gradual mortgage rate decline. And as of now, things are starting to move in the right direction.

Bottom Line

Keeping up with all of these shifts can feel overwhelming. That’s why having an experienced agent or lender on your side matters. They’ll do the heavy lifting for you.

If you want real-time updates on mortgage rates, reach out to a trusted agent or lender who can keep you in the loop and help you plan your next move.

If you’ve been watching from the sidelines, now’s the time to lean in. It’s officially the best time to buy this year. According to Realtor.com, this October will have the most buyer-friendly conditions of any month in 2025:

“By mid-October, buyers across much of the country may finally find the combination of inventory, pricing, and negotiating power they’ve been waiting for—a rare opportunity in a market that has been tight for most of the past decade.”

So, if you’re ready and able to buy right now, shooting for this month means you should see:

• More homes to choose from
• Less competition from other buyers
• More time to browse
• Better home prices
• Sellers who are more willing to negotiate

Just remember, every market is different. For most of the top 50 largest metros, that sweet spot falls in October. But the peak time to buy may be slightly earlier or later, depending on where you live. As Realtor.com explains:

“While Oct. 12–18 is the national “Best Week,” timing can shift depending on the local markets. . .”

Best Week To Buy for the Top 50 Largest Metro Areas

• Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA: September 28 – October 4
• Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX: September 28 – October 4
• Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD: October 12 – 18
• Birmingham, AL: October 19 – 25
• Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH: October 26 – November 1
• Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY: October 12 – 18
• Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC: November 2 – 8
• Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN: September 28 – October 4
• Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN: October 12 – 18
• Cleveland, OH: October 12 – 18
• Columbus, OH: October 12 – 18
• Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX: September 28 – October 4
• Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO: October 12 – 18
• Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI: October 12 – 18
• Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood, MI: September 28 – October 4
• Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT: September 21 – 27
• Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX: October 12 – 18
• Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, IN: October 26 – November 1
• Jacksonville, FL: October 26 – November 1
• Kansas City, MO-KS: October 12 – 18
• Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV: October 5 – 11
• Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA: October 12 – 18
• Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN: November 2 – 8
• Memphis, TN-MS-AR: September 21 – 27
• Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL: November 30 – December 6
• Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI: September 7 – 13
• Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI: October 26 – November 1
• Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN: October 12 – 18
• New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ: September 14 – 20
• Oklahoma City, OK: October 12 – 18
• Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL: October 26 – November 1
• Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD: September 7 – 13
• Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ: November 2 – 8
• Pittsburgh, PA: October 12 – 18
• Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA: October 26 – November 1
• Providence-Warwick, RI-MA: October 19 – 25
• Raleigh-Cary, NC: October 12 – 18
• Richmond, VA: October 26 – November 1
• Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA: September 28 – October 4
• Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA: October 12 – 18
• San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX: October 12 – 18
• San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA: October 12 – 18
• San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA: October 12 – 18
• San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA: October 19 – 25
• Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA: October 19 – 25
• St. Louis, MO-IL: October 12 – 18
• Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL: November 30 – December 6
• Tucson, AZ: October 12 – 18
• Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC: September 21 – 27
• Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV: October 12 – 18

What the Experts Are Saying

And Realtor.com isn’t the only one saying you’ve got an opportunity if you move now. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:

“Homebuyers are in the best position in more than five years to find the right home and negotiate for a better price. Current inventory is at its highest since May 2020, during the COVID lockdown.”

Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin, puts it like this:

“Nationally, now is a good time to buy, if you can afford it . . . with falling mortgage rates and significantly more inventory, buyers have an upper hand in negotiations.”

And NerdWallet says:

“This fall just might be the best window for home buyers in the past five years.”

How To Get Ready for this Golden Window

To make sure you’re ready to jump in whenever your market’s best time to buy arrives, talk to a local agent now. They’ll be able to give you more information on your market’s peak time, why it’s good for you, and the steps you’ll need to take to get ready.

Bottom Line

If you’re serious about buying, getting prepped for this October window is a smart play.

Want help lining up your strategy? Have a quick conversation with a local agent so you’ve got the information you need to be ready for this prime buying time.