This will be an interesting year for residential real estate. With a presidential election taking place this fall and talk of a possible recession occurring before the end of the year, predicting what will happen in the 2020 U.S. housing market can be challenging. As a result, taking a look at the combined projections from the most trusted entities in the industry when it comes to mortgage rates, home sales, and home prices is incredibly valuable – and they may surprise you.
Mortgage Rates
Projections from the experts at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac all forecast mortgage rates remaining stable throughout 2020:
have right now.
Here are the average mortgage interest rates over the last several decades:
1970s: 8.86%
1980s: 12.70%
1990s: 8.12%
2000s: 6.29%
Home Sales
Three of the four expert groups noted above also predict an increase in home sales in 2020, and the fourth sees the transaction number remaining stable:
With mortgage rates remaining near all-time lows, demand should not be a challenge. The lack of available inventory, however, may moderate the increase in sales.
Home Prices
Below are the projections from six different expert entities that look closely at home values: CoreLogic, Fannie Mae, Ivy Zelman’s “Z Report”, the National Association of Realtors (NAR), Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
Each group has home values continuing to improve through 2020, with four of them seeing price appreciation increasing at a greater pace than it did in 2019.
Is a Recession Possible?
In early 2019, a large percentage of economists began predicting a recession may occur in 2020. In addition, a recent survey of potential home purchasers showed that over 50% agreed it would occur this year. The economy, however, remained strong in the fourth quarter, and that has caused many to rethink the possibility.
“Markets sounded the recession alarm this year, and the average forecaster now sees a 33% chance of recession over the next year. In contrast, our new recession model suggests just a 20% probability. Despite the record age of the expansion, the usual late-cycle problems—inflationary overheating and financial imbalances—do not look threatening.”
Bottom Line
Mortgage rates are projected to remain under 4%, causing sales to increase in 2020. With growing demand and a limited supply of inventory, prices will continue to appreciate, while the threat of an impending recession seems to be softening. It looks like 2020 may be a solid year for the real estate market.
There’s a lot of noise out there right now about investors in the housing market.
Some headlines make it sound like big Wall Street firms are buying up everything in sight. And if you’re trying to purchase a home yourself, that can make it feel like the odds are stacked against you.
But when you take a closer look at the data, a very different picture starts to come into focus.
Most Investors Are Just Everyday Owners
For starters, when you hear the word investor, you probably picture big corporations. And that misconception is a large part of what’s feeding into the myth that they’re buying up all the homes.
Most investors aren’t big companies, at all.
They’re everyday people just like you.
They’re someone who owns a second home (like a vacation house at the river), a neighbor who has 1 or 2 rentals, or even a homeowner who tried to sell their home, didn’t get the price they wanted, and decided to rent it instead.
And when all of these groups are lumped together in the headlines, the number of investors sounds high – especially if you’re operating under the assumption all investors are big investors.
But here’s what the numbers really show when you drill down.
Institutional Investors Are a Small Slice of the Housing Market
Large institutional investors, those big companies buying homes, actually make up a very small share of the overall housing market.
According to BatchData, the largest investors (those with 1,000+ homes) own just 0.4% of the 86 million single-family homes in the country. And their share of the market is actually shrinking.
Data from Parcl Labs shows big investors are selling 4 homes for every 1 they’re buying right now (see visual below):
That means they’ve actually added almost 1.7k homes back into the market lately.
What This Means for You
The story is clear. Instead of aggressively buying up homes, most of these companies are stepping back, which means less competition from them than you might expect. If you were someone who thought they were dominating the market, let that give you some peace of mind.
Most of the competition you’ll face is from other everyday buyers – people just like you. And with most large investors stepping back, there may be more opportunity in the market than you think.
Bottom Line
It’s easy to assume big investors are taking over the housing market, but the data tells a different story. If you want an expert’s opinion on what investor activity looks like in our area, talk to a local agent.
Because odds are, it’s not as big a factor as you may think.
Mortgage rates have been volatile lately. And if you’re thinking about buying a home, that can make it harder to plan. But there are still things you can do to get the best rate possible in today’s market. It starts with having the right information.
So, what’s causing the bumps in rates? And what can you do about it? Let’s break it down.
Mortgage Rate Volatility Is Normal
Data from Freddie Mac shows the recent volatility. After trending down for well over a year, there was a rise this month (see graph below):
While it’s easy to be distracted by the changes, here’s what you need to remember.
It’s normal for rates to bounce around a bit here and there. For example, if you look back at the graph, you’ll see that even within the past year there have been times like this when rates inched up. We’re in one of those moments right now and you need to be aware of that.
Especially when there’s economic uncertainty or big global events happening, volatility like this is expected. As Investopedia explains:
“Mortgage rates don’t move in isolation. When global events inject uncertainty into financial markets . . . that can ripple through to borrowing . . . mortgage costs can respond quickly to geopolitical developments. As long as uncertainty remains elevated, rate swings may continue.”
And that’s one of the reasons why trying to time the market isn’t a wise move.
You can’t control what happens with mortgage rates. But there are still things you can do to help you get the best rate possible in today’s market. And here’s where to focus your effort.
Your Credit Score
Your credit score plays a big role in the rate you qualify for. Even a small improvement can make a noticeable difference in your monthly payment. As Bankrate puts it:
“Your credit score is one of the most important factors lenders consider when you apply for a mortgage. Not just to qualify for the loan itself, but for the conditions: Typically, the higher your score, the lower the interest rates and better terms you’ll qualify for.”
So, make sure you do what you can to keep your credit score up. If you’re not sure what your score is or how you can improve it, talk to a trusted loan officer.
Your Loan Type
There are also different types of home loans – and each one can have unique requirements, benefits, and rates for qualified buyers. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) explains:
“There are several broad categories of mortgage loans, such as conventional, FHA, USDA, and VA loans. Lenders decide which products to offer, and loan types have different eligibility requirements. Rates can be significantly different depending on what loan type you choose.”
That’s why it’s so important to explore your options with a lender. You may even want to talk to multiple lenders to see how the options vary.
Your Loan Term
The length of your loan matters too. Most lenders typically offer 15, 20, or 30-year loans. Freddie Mac offers this advice:
“When choosing the right home loan for you, it’s important to consider the loan term, which is the length of time it will take you to repay your loan before you fully own your home. Your loan term will affect your interest rate, monthly payment, and the total amount of interest you will pay over the life of the loan.”
Again, to figure out what makes the most sense for your budget and long-term goals, have a lender walk you through all your options.
Bottom Line
Thinking about buying right now? The best advice is to accept that you can’t control where rates are going to go from here.
What you can do is work with a trusted lender and take steps that’ll help you get the best rate possible.
So, if you want to move today, talk to an agent and a lender to make it happen. You just need to control the controllables and focus where it counts.
For the past few years, affordability has been what’s stopped a lot of buyers in their tracks. Maybe it stopped you, too.
At some point you probably did the math, looked at the monthly payment, and decided to pause your search and wait for things to get better. But here’s something you may have missed while you’ve been sitting on the sidelines.
Over the last year, housing affordability has improved in all 50 states. Yes, you read that right. It’s gotten better in every single state.
That’s based on new research coming out of First American. And while housing is still fairly expensive compared to historical standards, the pressure buyers felt over the last few years is finally starting to ease.
Some Areas Are Seeing Bigger Improvements
The first thing you need to know is that this isn’t just happening in one region or in a small handful of cities. The trend is happening almost everywhere.
Sure, individual states, cities, and even neighborhoods are going to vary – sometimes by a lot. But overall, more buyers are able to buy again. And in 48 of the top 50 metros, affordability has improved over the past year.
That same research breaks down which cities are seeing the biggest gains:
Just in case you’re wondering: why these areas? It’s simple. In many cases, it comes down to the number of homes for sale.
When buyers have more choices, it creates a healthier balance in the market and that can help bring affordability back within reach. With homes up for grabs, it opens the door a bit wider for buyers to negotiate with sellers for credits, price cuts, and more. And it gives you more chances to find a house that works for your needs and budget.
It may make more of a difference than you think.
None of this means affordability challenges have completely disappeared. Buying a home is still a big financial decision. But the trend is moving in a direction many buyers have been waiting for.
As Chen Zhao, Head of Economic Research at Redfin, puts it:
“The housing affordability crisis is showing signs of easing . . . opening the door for more Americans to make the jump to homeownership.”
Bottom Line
If you were holding off on buying, this could be exactly the signal you’ve been waiting so long for. To find out how much affordability’s improved in your area, connect with a local real estate agent.
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