This will be an interesting year for residential real estate. With a presidential election taking place this fall and talk of a possible recession occurring before the end of the year, predicting what will happen in the 2020 U.S. housing market can be challenging. As a result, taking a look at the combined projections from the most trusted entities in the industry when it comes to mortgage rates, home sales, and home prices is incredibly valuable – and they may surprise you.
Mortgage Rates
Projections from the experts at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac all forecast mortgage rates remaining stable throughout 2020:
have right now.
Here are the average mortgage interest rates over the last several decades:
1970s: 8.86%
1980s: 12.70%
1990s: 8.12%
2000s: 6.29%
Home Sales
Three of the four expert groups noted above also predict an increase in home sales in 2020, and the fourth sees the transaction number remaining stable:
With mortgage rates remaining near all-time lows, demand should not be a challenge. The lack of available inventory, however, may moderate the increase in sales.
Home Prices
Below are the projections from six different expert entities that look closely at home values: CoreLogic, Fannie Mae, Ivy Zelman’s “Z Report”, the National Association of Realtors (NAR), Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
Each group has home values continuing to improve through 2020, with four of them seeing price appreciation increasing at a greater pace than it did in 2019.
Is a Recession Possible?
In early 2019, a large percentage of economists began predicting a recession may occur in 2020. In addition, a recent survey of potential home purchasers showed that over 50% agreed it would occur this year. The economy, however, remained strong in the fourth quarter, and that has caused many to rethink the possibility.
“Markets sounded the recession alarm this year, and the average forecaster now sees a 33% chance of recession over the next year. In contrast, our new recession model suggests just a 20% probability. Despite the record age of the expansion, the usual late-cycle problems—inflationary overheating and financial imbalances—do not look threatening.”
Bottom Line
Mortgage rates are projected to remain under 4%, causing sales to increase in 2020. With growing demand and a limited supply of inventory, prices will continue to appreciate, while the threat of an impending recession seems to be softening. It looks like 2020 may be a solid year for the real estate market.
Foreclosure headlines are making noise again – and they’re designed to stir up fear to get you to read them. But what the data shows is actually happening in the market tells a very different story than what you might be led to believe. So, before you jump to conclusions, it’s important to look at the full picture.
Yes, foreclosure starts are up 7% in the first six months of the year. But zooming out shows that’s nowhere near crisis levels. Here’s why.
Filings Are Still Far Below Crash Levels
Even with the recent uptick, overall foreclosure filings are still very low. In the first half of 2025, just 0.13% of homes had filed for foreclosure. That’s less than 1% of homes in this country. In fact, it’s even far less than that at under a quarter of a percent. That’s a very small fraction of all the homes out there. But like with anything else in real estate, the numbers vary by market.
Here’s the map you need to see that shows how foreclosure rates are lower than you might think, and how they differ by local area:
For context, data from ATTOM shows in the first half of 2025, 1 in every 758 homes nationwide had a foreclosure filing. Thats the 0.13% you can see in the map above. But in 2010, back during the crash? Mortgage News Daily says it was 1 in every 45 homes.
Today’s Numbers Don’t Indicate a Market in Trouble
But here’s what everyone remembers…
Leading up to the crash, risky lending practices left homeowners with payments they eventually couldn’t afford. That led to a situation where many homeowners were underwater on their mortgages. When they couldn’t make their payments, they had no choice but to walk away. Foreclosures surged, and the market ultimately crashed.
Today’s housing market is very different. Lending standards are stronger. Homeowners have near record levels of equity. And when someone hits financial trouble, that equity means many people can sell their home rather than face foreclosure. As Rick Sharga, Founder of CJ Patrick Company, explains:
“. . . a significant factor contributing to today’s comparatively low levels of foreclosure activity is that homeowners—including those in foreclosure—possess an unprecedented amount of home equity.”
No one wants to see a homeowner struggle. But if you’re a homeowner facing hardship, talk to your mortgage provider. You may have more options than you think.
Bottom Line
Recent headlines may not tell the whole story, but the data does. Foreclosure activity remains low by historical standards and is not a sign of another crash.
If you’re simply watching the market and want to understand what’s really going on, or how this impacts the value of your home, connect with an agent. They’ll help you separate fact from fear by showing you what the data really says.
If you’re tempted to delay your move in hope that mortgage rates will come down, you may want to rethink that strategy based on the latest forecast.
Experts say mortgage rates are projected to stay in the 6s this year. So don’t expect a big drop.
If you want to talk about what this means for your move, connect with a real estate agent. As forecasts change, having an expert who can keep you updated is essential.
Are you looking for better home prices, or even a lower mortgage rate? You might find both in one place: a newly built home. While many buyers are overlooking new construction, it could be your best opportunity in today’s market. Here’s why.
There are more brand-new homes available right now than there were even just a few months ago. According to the most recent data from the Census and the National Association of Realtors (NAR), roughly 1 in 5 homes for sale right now is new construction. So, if you’re not looking at newly built homes, you’re missing out on a big portion of what’s available.
And with more new homes on the market, builders are motivated to sell their current inventory. As a result, many are taking steps to draw in buyers.
Builders Are Cutting Prices
According to Buddy Hughes, Chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB):
“Almost 40% of home builders reduced sales prices in the last month . . .”
That means builders are being realistic about today’s market and adjusting to what buyers can afford. It’s their way to keep their inventory moving.
So, builders may be more willing to negotiate price than you’d expect – and that means your dollar may go further if you buy a newly built home. Lean on your agent to see what’s available and what incentives builders are offering in and around your area.
Builders Are Offering Lower Mortgage Rates
Here’s something most people don’t know. Right now, buyers of brand-new homes often get better mortgage rates than buyers of existing homes.
That’s because many builders are also offering rate buydowns to make their homes more attractive and keep sales moving. Basically, they’re willing to chip in to lower your rate, so you’re more likely to buy one of their homes.
Data from Realtor.com shows, in 2023 and 2024, buyers of newly built homes got a mortgage rate around half a percent lower compared to those who bought existing homes (see graph below):
That kind of savings adds up and makes a big difference when you’re figuring out your monthly budget.
So, if you haven’t found something you love yet, it’s time to add newly built homes to your search. You may find that what you’ve been looking for is already out there, it’s just in a new home community.
Bottom Line
More choices, the potential to negotiate on the price, and maybe even better mortgage rates make these options a bright spot in today’s housing market.
If you haven’t considered a newly built home yet, what’s holding you back?
Talk to a local real estate agent about what’s available and if a newly built home makes sense for you.
You must be logged in to post a comment Login