This will be an interesting year for residential real estate. With a presidential election taking place this fall and talk of a possible recession occurring before the end of the year, predicting what will happen in the 2020 U.S. housing market can be challenging. As a result, taking a look at the combined projections from the most trusted entities in the industry when it comes to mortgage rates, home sales, and home prices is incredibly valuable – and they may surprise you.
Mortgage Rates
Projections from the experts at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac all forecast mortgage rates remaining stable throughout 2020:
have right now.
Here are the average mortgage interest rates over the last several decades:
1970s: 8.86%
1980s: 12.70%
1990s: 8.12%
2000s: 6.29%
Home Sales
Three of the four expert groups noted above also predict an increase in home sales in 2020, and the fourth sees the transaction number remaining stable:
With mortgage rates remaining near all-time lows, demand should not be a challenge. The lack of available inventory, however, may moderate the increase in sales.
Home Prices
Below are the projections from six different expert entities that look closely at home values: CoreLogic, Fannie Mae, Ivy Zelman’s “Z Report”, the National Association of Realtors (NAR), Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
Each group has home values continuing to improve through 2020, with four of them seeing price appreciation increasing at a greater pace than it did in 2019.
Is a Recession Possible?
In early 2019, a large percentage of economists began predicting a recession may occur in 2020. In addition, a recent survey of potential home purchasers showed that over 50% agreed it would occur this year. The economy, however, remained strong in the fourth quarter, and that has caused many to rethink the possibility.
“Markets sounded the recession alarm this year, and the average forecaster now sees a 33% chance of recession over the next year. In contrast, our new recession model suggests just a 20% probability. Despite the record age of the expansion, the usual late-cycle problems—inflationary overheating and financial imbalances—do not look threatening.”
Bottom Line
Mortgage rates are projected to remain under 4%, causing sales to increase in 2020. With growing demand and a limited supply of inventory, prices will continue to appreciate, while the threat of an impending recession seems to be softening. It looks like 2020 may be a solid year for the real estate market.
If a move is on your radar for 2026, there’s a lot more working in your favor than there has been in a while.
After a stretch where many people felt stuck, 2026 is shaping up to be a year with more balance, more options, and more clarity for people who want to make a move. Not because the market is suddenly “easy,” but because several key conditions are shifting.
Here’s what the experts are saying you have to look forward to.
Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com:
“After a challenging period for buyers, sellers and renters, 2026 should offer a welcome, if modest, step toward a healthier housing market.”
“Top economists have one word to sum up the housing market for 2026: opportunity. Lower mortgage rates and a rising supply of homes are expected to open up the housing market . . . something the real estate industry and potential home buyers and sellers have been waiting for, following three years of stagnation.”
“. . . for the first time in several years, the underlying forces are finally aligned toward gradual improvement. Mortgage rates may drift down only slowly, but income growth exceeding house price appreciation will provide a boost to house-buying power — even in a higher-rate world. Affordability won’t snap back overnight, but like a ship finally catching a steady tailwind, it’s now sailing in the right direction.”
“Buyers are benefiting from more inventory and improved affordability, while sellers are seeing price stability and more consistent demand. Each group should have a bit more breathing room in 2026.”
Why Local Insight Matters More Than Ever
Just remember, while the national outlook is improving, conditions will still be different based on where you live. Some markets will move faster than others. Some will see stronger price growth. Others will remain flat. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, explains:
“Market performance will hinge on local economic conditions, making 2026 one of the most geographically divided markets we’ve seen in years.”
That’s why understanding what’s happening in your specific area is key. The national trends set the stage, but local dynamics determine how they play out for you. And that’s why you need an agent.
Bottom Line
If you want more information on what these trends mean for your local market and which trends you’ll want to take advantage of, reach out to a trusted real estate agent.
There’s a lot of conversation about home prices, mortgage rates, and affordability right now – and those things are important. But if you’re thinking about buying a home, it’s worth remembering something the headlines rarely talk about: people don’t buy homes just for financial reasons. They buy them for their lives.
Because while homeownership can absolutely be a smart long-term financial move, it also comes with some emotional benefits spreadsheets just can’t capture. Maybe that’s why a 2025 survey from Fannie Maenotes:
“Consumers were twice as likely to mention lifestyle benefits (67%)—like security, customization, and outdoor space—than financial benefits (34%) when explaining why their homes have become more important in recent years.”
Here are a few reminders of what owning a home gives you that renting never will.
1. A Milestone You Get To Be Proud Of
Buying a home is a big deal. First home, fifth home – it doesn’t matter. It’s a moment you’ll remember. And when you finally get those keys and walk through the door, that feeling of “I did this” hits different. It’s not just a purchase. It’s an accomplishment.
2. A Place That Feels Like Your Reset Button
Life is busy. Having a place that’s truly yours where you can shut the door, take a breath, and settle into your own routine is something renters rarely talk about until they finally experience it. Home becomes the place you go to recharge, not just the place your mail is delivered.
3. Space That Fits the Way You Actually Live
Need a quiet corner for work calls? A backyard big enough for the dog that thinks it’s a person? A shorter drive to see the people who are most important to you? When you own, you get to choose a space that fits your life now and where it’s heading – and it just feels right.
4. Freedom To Make It 100% Yours
Want to paint the kitchen navy? Go for it. Thinking about a wall of floating shelves or a bold wallpaper moment? Do it. Need space for a home gym or a reading nook? Make it happen. Homeownership gives you the freedom to shape your space instead of asking for permission to change it.
Bottom Line
Buying a home isn’t only about dollars and data points – it’s about building a life you love.
So, if you’re thinking about a move in 2026, keep the emotional side in the conversation too. And when you’re ready to explore your options, reach out to a trusted local agent who can guide you through the process with clarity and confidence.
You may not want to put your homebuying plans into hibernation mode this winter. While a lot of people assume spring is the ideal time to buy a house, new data shows January may actually be the best time of year for budget-conscious buyers.
Kind of surprising, right? Here’s why January deserves a serious look.
1. Prices Tend To Be Lower This Time of Year
Lending Tree says January is the least expensive month to buy a home. And there’s something to that. January has historically offered one of the lowest price-per-square-foot points of the entire year. But the spring? That’s when demand (and prices) usually peak. And that’s not speculation – it’s a well-known trend based on years of market data.
So, how much less are we talking? Here’s a look at the numbers. According to the last full year of data, for the typical 1,500 square foot house, buyers who closed on their home in January paid around $23,000 less compared to those who bought in May. And that general trend typically holds true each year (see chart below):
Now, your number is going to depend on the price, size, and type of the home you’re buying. But the trend is clear. For today’s buyers, it’s meaningful savings, especially when affordability is still tight for so many households.
2. Fewer Buyers and More Motivated Sellers
And why do buyers typically save in the winter? It’s simple. Winter is one of the slowest times in the housing market each year. Both buyers and sellers tend to pull back, thinking it’s better to wait until spring. And that means:
You face less competition
You’re less likely to get into a multiple offer scenario
Sellers are more willing to negotiate (since there aren’t as many buyers)
With fewer buyers in the market, you can take your time browsing.
But winter doesn’t just thin out the pool of buyers, it also reveals which sellers truly need to sell. Because fewer people are house hunting during the colder months, sellers who really need to move tend to be more open to negotiating. As Realtor.com explains:
“Less competition means fewer bidding wars and more power to negotiate the extras that add up: closing cost credits, home warranties, even repair concessions. . . these concessions can end up knocking thousands of dollars off the price of a home.”
This can include everything from price cuts to covering closing costs, adjusting timelines, and more. It doesn’t mean you’ll automatically get discounts on every home. But it does mean you’re more likely to be taken seriously and given room to negotiate.
Should You Wait for Spring?
Here’s the real takeaway. When you remove the pressure and frenzy that comes with the busy spring season, it becomes much easier to get the home you want at a price that fits your budget.
But if you wait until spring, more buyers will be in the market. So, waiting could actually mean you spend more and you’d have to deal with more stress.
Now, only you can decide the right timing for your life, but don’t assume you should wait for warmer weather before you move.
Buying in January gives you: less competition, potentially lower prices, and more motivated sellers. And those are three perks you’re not going to see if you wait until spring.
Bottom Line
If you’ve been thinking about taking the next step, this season might give you more opportunity than you think.
Curious what buying in January could look like for you? Talk to a local agent who can help you take a closer look at your numbers and the homes that are available in your area.
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