This will be an interesting year for residential real estate. With a presidential election taking place this fall and talk of a possible recession occurring before the end of the year, predicting what will happen in the 2020 U.S. housing market can be challenging. As a result, taking a look at the combined projections from the most trusted entities in the industry when it comes to mortgage rates, home sales, and home prices is incredibly valuable – and they may surprise you.
Mortgage Rates
Projections from the experts at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac all forecast mortgage rates remaining stable throughout 2020:
have right now.
Here are the average mortgage interest rates over the last several decades:
1970s: 8.86%
1980s: 12.70%
1990s: 8.12%
2000s: 6.29%
Home Sales
Three of the four expert groups noted above also predict an increase in home sales in 2020, and the fourth sees the transaction number remaining stable:
With mortgage rates remaining near all-time lows, demand should not be a challenge. The lack of available inventory, however, may moderate the increase in sales.
Home Prices
Below are the projections from six different expert entities that look closely at home values: CoreLogic, Fannie Mae, Ivy Zelman’s “Z Report”, the National Association of Realtors (NAR), Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
Each group has home values continuing to improve through 2020, with four of them seeing price appreciation increasing at a greater pace than it did in 2019.
Is a Recession Possible?
In early 2019, a large percentage of economists began predicting a recession may occur in 2020. In addition, a recent survey of potential home purchasers showed that over 50% agreed it would occur this year. The economy, however, remained strong in the fourth quarter, and that has caused many to rethink the possibility.
“Markets sounded the recession alarm this year, and the average forecaster now sees a 33% chance of recession over the next year. In contrast, our new recession model suggests just a 20% probability. Despite the record age of the expansion, the usual late-cycle problems—inflationary overheating and financial imbalances—do not look threatening.”
Bottom Line
Mortgage rates are projected to remain under 4%, causing sales to increase in 2020. With growing demand and a limited supply of inventory, prices will continue to appreciate, while the threat of an impending recession seems to be softening. It looks like 2020 may be a solid year for the real estate market.
Let’s be real – buying a home right now is tough. You’re scrolling through listings, rushing to open houses, and maybe even losing out to more competitive offers. Somewhere along the way, you might’ve heard the reason it’s so hard to find a home is because big Wall Street investors are swooping in and snatching up everything in sight.
But here’s the thing: that’s mostly a myth. While investors are part of the market, according to Redfin, they’re a relatively small part:
Here’s what that means. Five out of every six homes are being purchased by everyday homebuyers like you – not big investors.
So, before you get discouraged, let’s take a look at what’s really going on. You might be surprised to learn that Wall Street isn’t the competition you may think it is.
Most Investors Are Small Mom-and-Pops
Most investors aren’t the mega corporations you’ve probably heard about. In fact, many are your neighbors. A recent report from CoreLogic shows most investors are small, mom-and-pop types who own fewer than 10 properties. They aren’t massive companies with endless resources. Picture your neighbor who has another home they’re renting out or a vacation getaway.
Only about 1% of the market is owned by large, mega investors with thousands of properties. The majority are still owned by individuals and smaller investors – not the Wall Street giants.
Investor Purchases Are Declining
Not only are most investors small, but overall investor purchases have been on the decline. As the same report from CoreLogicsays:
“Investors made 80,000 purchases in June 2024, compared with 112,000 in June 2023, and a nearly 50% percent drop from the high of 149,000 purchases in June 2021 . . .”
And what does this mean going forward? CoreLogic goes on to point out this downward trend is expected to continue into 2025.
So, if it seems like competition with investors is pushing you out of the market, it might help to know that investor activity is actually slowing down.
Bottom Line
The idea that Wall Street is buying up all the homes is largely a myth. Most investors are small ones, and the share of homes purchased by investors is declining – so you can take this one off your worry list.
If you have questions about the housing market, talk to a local real estate agent. They can explain what’s really happening.
There are more homes on the market right now than there have been in years – and that could be a game changer for you if you’re ready to buy. Let’s look at two reasons why.
You Have More Options To Choose From
An article from Realtor.com helps explain just how much the number of homes for sale has gone up this year:
“There were 29.2% more homes actively for sale on a typical day in October compared with the same time in 2023, marking the twelfth consecutive month of annual inventory growth and the highest count since December 2019.”
And while the number of homes on the market still isn’t quite back to where it was in the years leading up to the pandemic, this is definitely an improvement (see graph below):
With more homes available for sale now, you have more options to choose from. As Hannah Jones, Senior Economic Research Analyst at Realtor.com, explains:
“Though still lower than pre-pandemic, burgeoning home supply means buyers have more options . . .”
That means you have a better chance of finding a house that meets your needs. It also means the buying process doesn’t have to feel quite as rushed, because more options on the market means you’ll likely face less competition from other buyers.
Home Price Growth Is Slowing
When there aren’t many homes for sale, buyers have to compete more fiercely for the ones that are available. That’s what happened a few years ago, and it’s what drove prices up so quickly.
But now, the increasing number of homes on the market is causing home price growth to slow down (see graph below):
In certain markets, the number of available homes has not only bounced back to normal, but has even surpassed pre-pandemic levels. In those areas, home price growth has slowed or stalled completely. As Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub, explains:
“Generally speaking, housing markets where active inventory has returned to pre-pandemic 2019 levels have seen home price growth soften or even decline outright from their 2022 peak.”
Slower or stalled price growth could give you a better chance of finding something within your budget. As Dr. Anju Vajja, Deputy Director at the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), says:
“For the third consecutive month U.S. house prices showed little movement . . . relatively flat house prices may improve housing affordability.”
But remember, inventory levels and home prices are going to vary by market.
So, having a real estate agent who knows the local area can be a big advantage. They can help you understand the trends in your community, which can make a real difference in finding a home that fits your needs and budget.
Bottom Line
More housing options – and the slower home price growth they bring – can help you find and buy a home that works for your lifestyle and budget. So don’t hesitate to reach out to a local real estate agent if you want to talk about the growing number of choices you have right now.
For over 79 years, Veterans Affairs (VA) home loans have helped countless Veterans achieve the dream of homeownership. But according to Veterans United, only 3 in 10 Veterans realize they may be able to buy a home without needing a down payment (see visual below):
That’s why it’s so important for Veterans – and anyone who cares about a Veteran – to be aware of this valuable program. Knowing about the resources available can make the path to homeownership easier and keep life-changing plans from being put on hold. As Veterans United explains:
“The ability to buy with 0% down is the signature advantage of this nearly 80-year-old benefit program. Eligible Veterans can buy as much house as they can afford, all without the need to spend years saving for a down payment.”
The Advantages of VA Home Loans
VA home loans are designed to make homeownership a reality for those who have served our country. These loans come with the following benefits according to the Department of Veterans Affairs:
Options for No Down Payment: One of the biggest perks is that many Veterans can buy a home with no down payment at all, making it simpler to get started on your homebuying journey.
Limited Closing Costs: With VA loans, there are limits on the types of closing costs Veterans have to pay. This helps keep more money in your pocket when you’re ready to finalize the sale.
No Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI): Unlike many other loan types, VA loans don’t require PMI, even with lower down payments. This means lower monthly payments, which adds up to big savings over time.
Your team of expert real estate professionals, including a local agent and a trusted lender, are the best resource to understand all the options and advantages available to help you achieve your homebuying goals.
Bottom Line
Owning a home is a key part of the American Dream, and VA home loans are a powerful benefit for those who’ve served our country. Work with a real estate professional to make sure you have everything you need to make confident decisions in the housing market.
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