This will be an interesting year for residential real estate. With a presidential election taking place this fall and talk of a possible recession occurring before the end of the year, predicting what will happen in the 2020 U.S. housing market can be challenging. As a result, taking a look at the combined projections from the most trusted entities in the industry when it comes to mortgage rates, home sales, and home prices is incredibly valuable – and they may surprise you.
Mortgage Rates
Projections from the experts at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac all forecast mortgage rates remaining stable throughout 2020:
have right now.
Here are the average mortgage interest rates over the last several decades:
1970s: 8.86%
1980s: 12.70%
1990s: 8.12%
2000s: 6.29%
Home Sales
Three of the four expert groups noted above also predict an increase in home sales in 2020, and the fourth sees the transaction number remaining stable:
With mortgage rates remaining near all-time lows, demand should not be a challenge. The lack of available inventory, however, may moderate the increase in sales.
Home Prices
Below are the projections from six different expert entities that look closely at home values: CoreLogic, Fannie Mae, Ivy Zelman’s “Z Report”, the National Association of Realtors (NAR), Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
Each group has home values continuing to improve through 2020, with four of them seeing price appreciation increasing at a greater pace than it did in 2019.
Is a Recession Possible?
In early 2019, a large percentage of economists began predicting a recession may occur in 2020. In addition, a recent survey of potential home purchasers showed that over 50% agreed it would occur this year. The economy, however, remained strong in the fourth quarter, and that has caused many to rethink the possibility.
“Markets sounded the recession alarm this year, and the average forecaster now sees a 33% chance of recession over the next year. In contrast, our new recession model suggests just a 20% probability. Despite the record age of the expansion, the usual late-cycle problems—inflationary overheating and financial imbalances—do not look threatening.”
Bottom Line
Mortgage rates are projected to remain under 4%, causing sales to increase in 2020. With growing demand and a limited supply of inventory, prices will continue to appreciate, while the threat of an impending recession seems to be softening. It looks like 2020 may be a solid year for the real estate market.
Waiting for perfect market conditions often means missing out. Because what you may not realize is, if you’re ready and able to buy, this time of year could actually give you an edge. Here’s why. As the weather cools down, the housing market can too – and that works in your favor.
You Likely Won’t Feel as Rushed
Homes tend to take a little longer to sell during this time of year. Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows the average time a house sits on the market jumps up during the winter months (see the green bars in the graph below):
This is partly because fewer buyers are active at this time of year – and that decrease in buyer competition means the houses that are on the market aren’t going to be snatched up as quickly. So, if you decide to buy a home in the next couple of months, you’ll likely have more time to consider your options and negotiate a deal without feeling as pressured.
Sellers May Be More Willing To Negotiate
And since homes generally take longer to sell during the winter, sellers are often more motivated to close a deal. That can work in your favor, too. According to NAR:
“Less competition can lead to better deals. While homes are not selling as fast as during the summer, sellers may be more willing to negotiate.”
Whether it’s compromising on price, covering closing costs or repairs, or including extras like appliances, you have more room to ask for what you need.
Homes Are Less Expensive in the Winter
With less competition from other buyers and sellers who are more willing to negotiate, you may see slightly lower prices too. In fact, according to NAR, homes are typically about 5% less expensive now compared to when prices normally peak in the summer.
That might not seem like a huge difference, but on a $400,000 home, it could mean savings of $20,000 on the purchase price.
You can see this expected seasonal shift in home prices taking place this year. Take a look at the graph below showing the median sales price of existing homes (homes that were previously owned) over the past 12 months. You’ll notice in the green bars that prices were lower in the winter months last year, and it seems like that’s going to happen again this year. That gives you the chance to make your budget go further:
Bottom Line
Buying a home during the winter means less competition, motivated sellers, and potentially lower prices, too. Work with a local real estate agent to find the right one at the right price for you.
Data shows 7 out of 10 prospective homebuyers don’t know the minimum credit score required by lenders or that it varies by lender and loan type.
According to Experian, the range is anywhere from 500 to 700 for the minimum credit score. That means you don’t need perfect credit to buy a home.
Your credit score is important – but that doesn’t mean it needs to be perfect. Work with a lender to learn more about home loan options that may work for you.
When planning a move, a newly built home might not be the first thing that comes to mind. But with more brand-new homes on the market and builders focusing on smaller, more affordable options, this type of home may just be the key to crossing the homebuying finish line.
Here’s why a new build is worth considering – and how an agent can help you find one that meets your needs and your budget.
1. More Newly Built Homes Are Available Right Now
First, let’s break down the types of homes on the market. A newly built home is a house that was just built or is under construction. On the other hand, an existing home is one a homeowner has already lived in.
Right now, the number of existing homes for sale is still low. And, if you’re struggling to find something you like because there aren’t that many existing homes for sale, opening up your search to include brand-new homes could really expand your options. That’s because there are more newly built homes available right now than in a typical year (see graph below):
From 1983 to 2019, newly built homes made up only 13% of the total inventory of homes for sale. Today, that number has climbed to 28.8%, according to the most recent data.
And as Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), notes:
“Even though existing home sales have been stuck at low levels, newly constructed home sales look to mark one of its best annual performance in 15 years . . . The new home inventory has been consistently rising with homebuilders getting active and making up around 1/3 of total inventory.”
While the uptick in new home construction is encouraging, rest assured that builders aren’t overdoing it, they’re just making up for over a decade of underbuilding. There are still way more buyers than there are homes on the market. But the good news for you is this increase in newly built homes means more options for your search.
2. Newly Built Homes Are Becoming Less Expensive
Still skeptical if a new build is right for you or if they’re even in your budget? The average cost of newly built homes has actually come down from a year ago.
Why is that? Builders know affordability is top of mind for homebuyers right now. So they’re focusing their efforts on building smaller homes they can offer at lower price points and are more likely to sell. As Realtor.comsays:
“Builders are increasingly bringing smaller, more affordable homes to the market, so buyers may find more newly-built homes that fit their budget.”
Something to keep in mind: buying a newly built home isn’t the same as buying an existing one. Builder contracts have different fine print. So be sure to partner with a local agent who knows the market, builder reputations, and what to look for in those contracts.
Bottom Line
Depending on your needs and budget, a new build might be the opportunity you’ve been waiting for to bring your homebuying vision to life. If you’re interested in a brand-new home, connect with an agent so you can check out what builders in your area are up to.
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