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For Buyers

The 2020 Real Estate Projections That May Surprise You

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This will be an interesting year for residential real estate. With a presidential election taking place this fall and talk of a possible recession occurring before the end of the year, predicting what will happen in the 2020 U.S. housing market can be challenging. As a result, taking a look at the combined projections from the most trusted entities in the industry when it comes to mortgage rateshome sales, and home prices is incredibly valuable – and they may surprise you.

Mortgage Rates

Projections from the experts at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac all forecast mortgage rates remaining stable throughout 2020:

30 Year Mortgage Rate* Projected to Remain Stable Throughout 2020 (chart)

have right now.

Here are the average mortgage interest rates over the last several decades:

  • 1970s: 8.86%
  • 1980s: 12.70%
  • 1990s: 8.12%
  • 2000s: 6.29%

Home Sales

Three of the four expert groups noted above also predict an increase in home sales in 2020, and the fourth sees the transaction number remaining stable:

Home Sales Projected to Grow in 2020 (chart)

With mortgage rates remaining near all-time lows, demand should not be a challenge. The lack of available inventory, however, may moderate the increase in sales.

Home Prices

Below are the projections from six different expert entities that look closely at home values: CoreLogicFannie Mae, Ivy Zelman’s “Z Report”, the National Association of Realtors (NAR), Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

Home Values Projected to Continue Appreciating Through 2020 (chart)

Each group has home values continuing to improve through 2020, with four of them seeing price appreciation increasing at a greater pace than it did in 2019.

Is a Recession Possible?

In early 2019, a large percentage of economists began predicting a recession may occur in 2020. In addition, a recent survey of potential home purchasers showed that over 50% agreed it would occur this year. The economy, however, remained strong in the fourth quarter, and that has caused many to rethink the possibility.

For example, Goldman Sachs, in their 2020 U.S. Outlook, explained:

“Markets sounded the recession alarm this year, and the average forecaster now sees a 33% chance of recession over the next year. In contrast, our new recession model suggests just a 20% probability. Despite the record age of the expansion, the usual late-cycle problems—inflationary overheating and financial imbalances—do not look threatening.”

Bottom Line

Mortgage rates are projected to remain under 4%, causing sales to increase in 2020. With growing demand and a limited supply of inventory, prices will continue to appreciate, while the threat of an impending recession seems to be softening. It looks like 2020 may be a solid year for the real estate market.

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For Buyers

More Options Are Popping Up This Spring

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Did you try to buy a home last year, but you ended up pressing pause?

Maybe you couldn’t find a home that really fit your needs. Or maybe the ones you liked just weren’t affordable. According to a recent survey from NerdWallet, those were the top two reasons buyers gave up on their search in 2025.

But this Spring, there’s one trend that could help fix both of those frustration points: more homes are hitting the market.

The Number of Fresh Listings Is Almost 2x Higher Than a Few Months Ago

Data from Realtor.com shows there are nearly 2x as many new listings hitting the market today as there were just 3 months ago. Those are homes the seller just put up for sale (see graph below):

a graph of a bar chartThat’s a significant rise. And while we usually see an uptick as we head into the busiest time of the year, this increase was bigger than normal. Jake Krimmel, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

New listings jumped 21.2% from February to 439,000, a larger-than-typical seasonal surge . . . March typically sees the biggest month-over-month jump in new listings of the entire buying season, averaging an 18% increase since 2017; this year it exceeded 20%.”

That means more sellers are jumping back into the market, and that’s giving buyers more fresh options to choose from. So, if you’d felt like you’d seen everything out there and still nothing was quite right, this may be your moment.

With that many “just listed” homes, one of them could be exactly what you’ve been searching for.

Where You Have More Options

And this trend is happening across most of the country, so you should have more options pretty much whereever you are.

Earlier this year, the Northeast had fewer new listings because winter storms delayed sellers from putting their homes on the market. But now, that region is catching up fast.

In March, new listings jumped across nearly every state, especially in the Northeast, helping drive a strong national rebound.

What Rising Inventory Means for You

Right now, there are almost a million homes for sale nationwide. That’s up over 8% compared to last year.

With that many homes on the market, there’s a much better chance something will fit what you’re looking for, especially with so many fresh options being added right now. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, explains:

“One of the most encouraging signals heading into the spring home-buying season is the improvement in for-sale inventory levels compared with last year. . . More homes on the market give buyers greater choice and, combined with improved buying power, expand the range of homes they can realistically consider.

In other words, your search may feel very different this year.

Bottom Line

More fresh listings are hitting the market right now, and that’s creating real opportunity.

If you put your search on hold last year, this Spring may be the time to jump back in. Connect with a local real estate agent to see what’s newly available in your area.

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Equity

Rent or Buy? The Real Tradeoff Most People Don’t Talk About

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You’ve probably asked yourself lately: Is it even worth trying to buy a home right now? It’s a question a lot of people are asking.

With today’s home prices and mortgage rates, renting can feel like the easier path. In some cases, it might even seem like the only realistic option right now. And if that’s where you are, there’s nothing wrong with that.

But if you’re weighing the decision, there’s one part of the conversation that doesn’t get talked about enough.

It’s what each choice does for your future.

What Renting Really Gets You (And What It Doesn’t)

Depending on your situation, renting does have some advantages:

  • Lower upfront costs.
  • Less responsibility.
  • More flexibility to move when you want.

But even with those benefits, a Bank of America survey found 70% of aspiring homeowners worry about what long-term renting means for their future. And that concern comes down to one thing: you’re not building anything for your future. As Yahoo Finance explains:

“Paying rent doesn’t build equity. You get a place to live, but no ownership stake, no price appreciation, and no asset to leverage for future borrowing or investment.”

So, while renting may feel easier, the flexibility you get comes at a cost.

How Homeownership Builds Your Wealth Over Time

On the other hand, owning a home is one of the most consistent ways people build wealth over time. Why? When you’re a homeowner, you gain something called equity. That’s the difference between what your home is worth and what you owe.

That equity grows with every monthly payment you make. It also gets a boost as home values go up through the years – and it adds up quicker than you may think.

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says the average homeowner’s net worth is 43X greater than that of a renter:

a graph of a number of peopleThe dollars in the visual don’t lie. On average, here’s how net worth compares:

  • Homeowners: $430k
  • Renters: $10k

And it’s not because homeowners make wildly different decisions day to day. It’s because over time, one path builds something, and the other doesn’t.

So sure, buying comes with some upfront costs and more responsibility. But it’s basically a savings account you can live in.

The Gap Is Growing Over Time

And here’s something else interesting. That net worth gap between renters and homeowners has been widening over time, not shrinking.

If you look back at the reports on net worth through the years, you can see the gap is growing as homeowners gain wealth and renters stay stuck in the rental trap (see graph below):

a graph of green and blue barsEven in 2025, when home prices were moderating, homeowners still gained even more ground. And that tells you something important:

When you can afford it and you’re ready for the responsibility, history shows buying is usually worth it in the long run. Because either way, you’re paying for someone’s mortgage and building someone’s net worth.

When you rent, it’s your landlord’s mortgage – not yours. But when you buy? Your monthly payments help build equity.

The question is: whose do you want to pay? Yours or theirs?

So, Should You Buy a Home Now?

The short answer is, it depends on your situation.

While the long-term benefits of buying are clear, that doesn’t mean the timing is right for everyone right now. And that’s okay. You should only buy a home once you’re ready and the numbers work for you.

But whether you’re looking to buy now or planning for the future, the first step is the same. You should have a quick conversation with a local real estate agent about your goals, timeline, and budget.

They can help you run the numbers and see what’s realistic. You may find buying is closer than you thought. And if not, you’ll at least know exactly what it will take to get there.

Because the sooner you have a plan, the sooner you can decide when it makes sense, instead of wondering if it ever will.

Bottom Line

Renting may feel more do-able today. But over time, it could cost you.

If you want to ditch renting and start building something for your future, it starts with a simple conversation. Connect with a real estate agent to talk about your specific goals, and explore your options – so you’re ready when the time is right for you.

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Buying Tips

Getting a Tax Refund? Here’s How It Can Help You Buy a Home

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If you’re getting a tax refund this year, here’s something worth thinking about. That money could actually help you get closer to buying a home.

It may not be something you’ve factored into your plan yet, but it can give your savings a nice boost right when you need it most. And whether your refund is a few thousand dollars or more, there are some smart ways to put that money to work as you get ready to buy.

Your Refund May Be Even Bigger This Year

Let’s start with the good news. People are getting even more money back in their refunds than they did last year. The visual below uses data from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to show the average individual’s refund is 11.1% higher this year:

a screenshot of a computerOf course, your exact refund will vary. But any extra money you get is a good thing, especially when affordability is still tight. 

How You Can Use Your Tax Refund

So, how can you put that money to work? Here are a few smart ways to use your refund when buying a home, according to Freddie Mac:

  • Put it toward your down payment. Data shows saving for a down payment is one of the biggest hurdles for first-time homebuyers. Using your refund can help you build that up faster. And the good news? You may not need to put as much down as you think.
  • Use it for your closing costs. Closing costs usually range from about 2% to 5% of the home’s purchase price. Using your refund here can make things feel a lot more manageable on closing day.
  • Lower your mortgage rate. You may have the option to buy down your mortgage rate. That means paying a little more upfront to get a lower monthly payment. If you’re looking for ways to make the numbers work a little better, this is something that could be worth asking about.

You Don’t Have To Figure This Out Alone

If you have a tax refund coming, it’s a great time to take another look at your homebuying savings. Maybe you’re almost at your goal and you can buy sooner than you expected.

A trusted real estate agent and lender can help you map out what you need, what your options are, and how to make the most of what you already have, including your tax refund.

Bottom Line

If buying a home is on your radar this year, don’t overlook your tax refund. It could be the extra push that helps you go from almost there to actually ready.

Want to see how far your savings could take you right now? Talk with a local real estate agent and build a plan that fits your situation.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.