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For Buyers

The 2020 Real Estate Projections That May Surprise You

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This will be an interesting year for residential real estate. With a presidential election taking place this fall and talk of a possible recession occurring before the end of the year, predicting what will happen in the 2020 U.S. housing market can be challenging. As a result, taking a look at the combined projections from the most trusted entities in the industry when it comes to mortgage rateshome sales, and home prices is incredibly valuable – and they may surprise you.

Mortgage Rates

Projections from the experts at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac all forecast mortgage rates remaining stable throughout 2020:

30 Year Mortgage Rate* Projected to Remain Stable Throughout 2020 (chart)

have right now.

Here are the average mortgage interest rates over the last several decades:

  • 1970s: 8.86%
  • 1980s: 12.70%
  • 1990s: 8.12%
  • 2000s: 6.29%

Home Sales

Three of the four expert groups noted above also predict an increase in home sales in 2020, and the fourth sees the transaction number remaining stable:

Home Sales Projected to Grow in 2020 (chart)

With mortgage rates remaining near all-time lows, demand should not be a challenge. The lack of available inventory, however, may moderate the increase in sales.

Home Prices

Below are the projections from six different expert entities that look closely at home values: CoreLogicFannie Mae, Ivy Zelman’s “Z Report”, the National Association of Realtors (NAR), Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

Home Values Projected to Continue Appreciating Through 2020 (chart)

Each group has home values continuing to improve through 2020, with four of them seeing price appreciation increasing at a greater pace than it did in 2019.

Is a Recession Possible?

In early 2019, a large percentage of economists began predicting a recession may occur in 2020. In addition, a recent survey of potential home purchasers showed that over 50% agreed it would occur this year. The economy, however, remained strong in the fourth quarter, and that has caused many to rethink the possibility.

For example, Goldman Sachs, in their 2020 U.S. Outlook, explained:

“Markets sounded the recession alarm this year, and the average forecaster now sees a 33% chance of recession over the next year. In contrast, our new recession model suggests just a 20% probability. Despite the record age of the expansion, the usual late-cycle problems—inflationary overheating and financial imbalances—do not look threatening.”

Bottom Line

Mortgage rates are projected to remain under 4%, causing sales to increase in 2020. With growing demand and a limited supply of inventory, prices will continue to appreciate, while the threat of an impending recession seems to be softening. It looks like 2020 may be a solid year for the real estate market.

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Affordability

Lower Asking Prices Are a Win for Today’s Buyers

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If affordability has been the biggest thing standing between you and a home, there’s a little good news. 

Asking prices have started to come down.

The typical seller listed their house for a median of $429,500 in May. That’s 2.4% lower than a year ago, according to Realtor.com. On its own, that won’t transform what you can afford, but in today’s market every little bit helps and it signals a broader shift taking place.

Buyers Are Finally Catching a Break

Check out this data from Realtor.com and you can see this is the first May in years where buyers have caught any sort of break price-wise.

Each May from 2022-2025, things held pretty steady. But this year? You can see that more noticeable shift in your favor (see graph below):

a graph of sales in different colors

While the dip from $440,000 to $429,500 isn’t a big one, it gives you more breathing room. And that’s not a small thing when affordability has been this tough.

Now, lower asking prices don’t mean every home is suddenly within your range. But they do show buyers are gaining a little ground.

And in today’s market, a little ground can go a long way. 

What That Means for the Housing Market

And just in case this crossed your mind, this is good news for your move, not bad news for the market as a whole.

The subtle dip from last May to this one shows prices are easing, but they’re not dropping off a cliff. What this is actually a sign of is that the market’s rebalancing now that the number of homes for sale has grown.

Buyers have a bit more power again, and sellers know they can’t name just any price and expect their house to sell. They either meet the market where it is, or face a price cut later. And in general, sellers would rather avoid a price cut. As the New York Post explains:

Rather than swinging for the fences with pandemic-era price tags, sellers are increasingly coming to terms with a new reality. The share of listings featuring price cuts actually fell to 17.5% in May, suggesting homeowners are doing their homework before putting up a “For Sale” sign instead of chasing unrealistic numbers and cutting later.

This signals a broader change in the market.

Seller expectations have been skewed a little high since the pandemic buying frenzy – you’ve probably felt that firsthand. But now, things are starting to normalize. It could mean less back-and-forth to land on a fair number. And homes should be priced a bit more realistically from the start.

Bottom Line

If affordability has been your top concern, the recent dip in prices is an opening. Connect with a local real estate agent to see what that looks like in your area.

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Affordability

Could Moving a Bit Further Out Change Everything About Your Budget?

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Whether you’re dreaming about buying your first home or wondering if it’s time to move on from the one you’re in, affordability is probably weighing on your mind. Home prices are still high in many markets, and even though things have improved a bit over the past year, making the numbers work can still feel like a stretch.

But the people finding ways to move right now usually have one thing in common. They didn’t wait for affordability to come to them. They went looking for it.

According to PODS, 61% of people across all generations say affordability is the biggest factor when deciding where to move. And it’s led a growing number of people to do one thing – broaden their search to include more affordable areas they hadn’t seriously considered before. As PODS, put it:

“. . . moving is increasingly driven by affordability, connection, and quality of life. As economic pressures persist, Americans are taking a more intentional, values-driven approach to where they choose to live.”

It’s Not Just the Home Price – It’s the Whole Cost of Living

Here’s where it gets really interesting. When people talk about moving for affordability, they’re not just talking about finding a cheaper house. They’re thinking about the full picture. What does it actually cost to live somewhere?

WalletHub looked at exactly this, measuring housing costs as a share of median monthly household income across every state (see map below).

Take a look at where you live on that map. The lighter the blue, the more affordable it generally is to live there. The darker the blue? Just the opposite.

a map of the united states

If your state is showing up on the darker blue end of the scale, the cost of living may be putting a real pinch on your wallet, and it may be worth exploring what a lighter-blue area could mean for your finances.

Because if you’re less financially stretched, imagine how that could change things. Less stress. Less worry. More freedom and peace of mind.

You Don’t Have To Move to Another State To Find a Better Deal

But finding more affordable homeownership doesn’t have to mean a cross-country move. It doesn’t even have to mean leaving your state, your family, or your favorite coffee shop behind.

Every market has more affordable pockets that most buyers never think to explore – neighborhoods, towns, and communities where home prices are lower, property taxes are more manageable, and the overall cost of living just works better.

A great local real estate agent knows exactly where those places are.

And if you work remotely, or have any flexibility in where you’re based, your options open up even further. Remote work has already changed the way millions of people think about where to live, and that trend isn’t going away.

When location stops being tied to a daily commute, a more affordable area that’s a bit farther out suddenly becomes a very real option.

Bottom Line

Affordability is a real challenge, but it’s not an unsolvable one. The key is being open to places you might not have considered before. A local real estate agent can help you find them.

Ready to find out which areas have the best affordability right now? Reach out today.

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Affordability

What Rising Inflation Means for Your Move

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Data shows inflation is moving in the wrong direction. But before the headlines send anyone into a panic, here’s what’s actually going on, why it matters for the housing market, and what it means if you’re thinking about buying or selling.

Inflation Went Up – Here’s What That Actually Means

The government tracks inflation in a variety of ways. One is something called PCE – the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. It measures how much more (or less) people are paying for goods and services compared to a year ago. And just based on your own expenses, you can probably guess which way that’s trending.

That’s the one everyone is talking about right now. Check out the yellow line to see how that’s spiked since February (see graph below). A big driver of this jump is the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has pushed gas and energy prices significantly higher.

a graph with blue and yellow lines

Now, you may have noticed there’s a second line. The blue line shows core PCE. That’s the same measure, but with gas and energy prices stripped out. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) actually watches this number most closely because energy prices swing around a lot and can be misleading.

And here’s the somewhat encouraging part.

Core PCE is rising, but not nearly as fast as the overall number. That suggests a good chunk of the inflation spike we’re seeing right now is tied directly to what’s happening overseas. So, when that situation settles down, inflation may settle a bit, too.

Why This Matters for Mortgage Rates

Here’s the housing connection. When inflation is high, the Fed tends to keep the Federal Funds Rate elevated or even raise it to try to taper spending and cool inflation back down. And while it’s not a one-for-one relationship, that Federal Funds Rate can have an impact on your mortgage rate when you buy. 

Right now, based on the information we have, there’s roughly a 50/50 chance the Fed actually raises the Federal Funds Rate before the end of 2026, according to CME FedWatch (see graph below):

a graph of blue squares

While it’s too soon to say where this goes for certain and if we’re headed for a rate hike, it does mean mortgage rates are probably not coming down as soon as most people were hoping.

If you’ve been waiting for rates to drop significantly before making a move, this report is a reminder that “higher for longer” is still very much on the table. It really all depends on where the economy goes from here. According to Bankrate:

“Oil prices and bond yields have dropped a bit . . . but they’re still way up compared to the start of spring. Until there’s a resolution to the war, look for both inflation and mortgage rates to stay high.

But This Is Not 2008 – Not Even Close

Just remember, a tough economy does not equal a housing crash. The conditions today are very different from what led to the 2008 collapse. Here’s why:

  • Inventory is still relatively low. There’s no flood of homes hitting the market.

  • Most homeowners today have strong equity in their homes.

  • Lending standards are far stricter than they were before 2008.

  • Today’s challenge is affordability, not a wave of distressed underwater sellers.

Uncomfortable and unhealthy are not the same thing. The market feels hard right now, but “hard” and “crashing” are very different.

You Still Have Options. Here’s What To Do.

High rates don’t mean homeownership is out of reach. It just means the path looks a little different. There are real strategies that can help, depending on your situation:

  • Ask your lender about different loan options. Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) or rate buydowns may help lower your monthly payment in the short term.

  • Explore first-time buyer programs, down payment assistance, or seller concessions that could help offset costs.

  • Stay in close touch with a trusted agent and lender. When rates shift, and they will, you’ll want to be ready to move fast.

The right strategy, tailored to your goals, matters a lot more than waiting for the perfect moment that may never come.

Bottom Line

Inflation is still above where the Fed wants it, and that means mortgage rates are likely to stay elevated for a while. But for people who need to move, strategy matters far more than trying to perfectly time the market.

Wondering what this means for your specific situation? Connect with a local agent or lender.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.