This will be an interesting year for residential real estate. With a presidential election taking place this fall and talk of a possible recession occurring before the end of the year, predicting what will happen in the 2020 U.S. housing market can be challenging. As a result, taking a look at the combined projections from the most trusted entities in the industry when it comes to mortgage rates, home sales, and home prices is incredibly valuable – and they may surprise you.
Mortgage Rates
Projections from the experts at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac all forecast mortgage rates remaining stable throughout 2020:
have right now.
Here are the average mortgage interest rates over the last several decades:
1970s: 8.86%
1980s: 12.70%
1990s: 8.12%
2000s: 6.29%
Home Sales
Three of the four expert groups noted above also predict an increase in home sales in 2020, and the fourth sees the transaction number remaining stable:
With mortgage rates remaining near all-time lows, demand should not be a challenge. The lack of available inventory, however, may moderate the increase in sales.
Home Prices
Below are the projections from six different expert entities that look closely at home values: CoreLogic, Fannie Mae, Ivy Zelman’s “Z Report”, the National Association of Realtors (NAR), Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
Each group has home values continuing to improve through 2020, with four of them seeing price appreciation increasing at a greater pace than it did in 2019.
Is a Recession Possible?
In early 2019, a large percentage of economists began predicting a recession may occur in 2020. In addition, a recent survey of potential home purchasers showed that over 50% agreed it would occur this year. The economy, however, remained strong in the fourth quarter, and that has caused many to rethink the possibility.
“Markets sounded the recession alarm this year, and the average forecaster now sees a 33% chance of recession over the next year. In contrast, our new recession model suggests just a 20% probability. Despite the record age of the expansion, the usual late-cycle problems—inflationary overheating and financial imbalances—do not look threatening.”
Bottom Line
Mortgage rates are projected to remain under 4%, causing sales to increase in 2020. With growing demand and a limited supply of inventory, prices will continue to appreciate, while the threat of an impending recession seems to be softening. It looks like 2020 may be a solid year for the real estate market.
This could be the year to sell your house – and here’s why. According to a recent NerdWallet survey, 15% of people are planning to buy a home this year. That’s actually a record high for this survey (see graph below):
Here’s why this is such a big deal. The percentage has been hovering between 9-11% since 2020. This recent increase shows buyer demand hasn’t disappeared – if anything, it indicates there’s pent-up demand ready to come back to the market.
That doesn’t mean the floodgates are opening and that there’s going to be a huge wave of buyers like we saw a few years ago. But this does signal there’ll be more activity this year than last.
At least some of the buyers who put their plans on hold over the past few years will jump back in. Whether they’re feeling more confident about moving, they’ve finally saved up enough to buy, or they simply can’t wait any longer – this is the year they’re aiming to take the plunge.
And, according to that same NerdWallet survey, more than half (54%) of those potential buyers have already started looking at homes online.
That’s a good indicator that a number of these buyers will be looking during the peak homebuying season this spring. So, if you find the right agent to make sure your house is prepped, priced, and marketed well, you can get your house in front of them.
Bottom Line
More people are going to move this year and with the right strategy, you can make sure your house is one of the first they look at.
What do you think these buyers will love most about your house?
Connect with an agent to talk it over and make sure it’s front and center in your listing.
Over the past few years, home prices skyrocketed. That’s been frustrating for buyers, leaving many wondering if they’d ever get a shot at owning a home. But here’s some welcome news: that whirlwind pace of home price growth is slowing down.
Home Prices Are Rising at a Healthy Pace
At the national level, home prices are still going up, but at a much more moderate, normal pace. For example, in November, the year-over-year increase in home prices was just 3.8% nationally, according to Case-Shiller. That’s a far cry from the double-digit spikes that occurred in 2021 and 2022 (see graph below):
This more normal home price growth might make buying a home feel more attainable for many buyers. You won’t face the same sticker shock or rapid price jumps that made it hard to plan your purchase just a few years ago.
At the same time, steady growth means the home you buy today will likely appreciate in value over time.
Prices Vary from Market to Market
While the national story is one of moderate price growth, it’s important to remember that all real estate is local. Some markets are seeing stronger growth, while others are cooling off or even seeing slight declines. As Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, notes:
“Regionally, variations persist, as some affordable areas – including smaller metros in the Midwest — remain in high demand and continue to see upward home price pressures.”
Meanwhile, other regions saw slight month-over-month declines in November, according to Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) data (see graph below):
What does this mean for you? It’s crucial to understand what’s happening in your local market. A national average can’t tell the whole story. That’s where working with a local real estate agent can really help. They have the tools and expertise to give you the full picture of what’s happening in your area and how to plan for that in your move.
Bottom Line
Home prices are growing at a more manageable pace, and working with a local real estate agent can help you navigate the ups and downs of your specific market.
How have changing home prices impacted your plans to buy?
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