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Three Reasons Why This Is Not a Housing Crisis

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In times of uncertainty, one of the best things we can do to ease our fears is to educate ourselves with research, facts, and data. Digging into past experiences by reviewing historical trends and understanding the peaks and valleys of what’s come before us is one of the many ways we can confidently evaluate any situation. With concerns of a global recession on everyone’s minds today, it’s important to take an objective look at what has transpired over the years and how the housing market has successfully weathered these storms.

1. The Market Today Is Vastly Different from 2008

We all remember 2008. This is not 2008. Today’s market conditions are far from the time when housing was a key factor that triggered a recession. From easy-to-access mortgages to skyrocketing home price appreciation, a surplus of inventory, excessive equity-tapping, and more – we’re not where we were 12 years ago. None of those factors are in play today. Rest assured, housing is not a catalyst that could spiral us back to that time or place.

According to Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, if there is a recession:

“It will be different than the Great Recession. Things unraveled pretty quickly, and then the recovery was pretty slow. I would expect this to be milder. There’s no dysfunction in the banking system, we don’t have many households who are overleveraged with their mortgage payments and are potentially in trouble.”

In addition, the Goldman Sachs GDP Forecast released this week indicates that although there is no growth anticipated immediately, gains are forecasted heading into the second half of this year and getting even stronger in early 2021.Three Reasons Why This Is Not a Housing Crisis | Simplifying The MarketBoth of these expert sources indicate this is a momentary event in time, not a collapse of the financial industry. It is a drop that will rebound quickly, a stark difference to the crash of 2008 that failed to get back to a sense of normal for almost four years. Although it poses plenty of near-term financial challenges, a potential recession this year is not a repeat of the long-term housing market crash we remember all too well.

2. A Recession Does Not Equal a Housing Crisis

Next, take a look at the past five recessions in U.S. history. Home values actually appreciated in three of them. It is true that they sank by almost 20% during the last recession, but as we’ve identified above, 2008 presented different circumstances. In the four previous recessions, home values depreciated only once (by less than 2%). In the other three, residential real estate values increased by 3.5%, 6.1%, and 6.6% (see below):Three Reasons Why This Is Not a Housing Crisis | Simplifying The Market

3. We Can Be Confident About What We Know

Concerns about the global impact COVID-19 will have on the economy are real. And they’re scary, as the health and wellness of our friends, families, and loved ones are high on everyone’s emotional radar.

According to Bloomberg,

“Several economists made clear that the extent of the economic wreckage will depend on factors such as how long the virus lasts, whether governments will loosen fiscal policy enough and can markets avoid freezing up.”

That said, we can be confident that, while we don’t know the exact impact the virus will have on the housing market, we do know that housing isn’t the driver.

The reasons we move – marriage, children, job changes, retirement, etc. – are steadfast parts of life. As noted in a recent piece in the New York Times, “Everyone needs someplace to live.” That won’t change.

Bottom Line

Concerns about a recession are real, but housing isn’t the driver. If you have questions about what it means for your family’s homebuying or selling plans, let’s connect to discuss your needs.

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First-Time Buyers

Why Big Investors Aren’t a Challenge for Today’s Homebuyer

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Remember the chatter in the headlines about all the homes big institutional investors were buying? If you were thinking about buying a home yourself, you may have wondered how you’d ever be able to compete with that. Here’s the thing. That’s not the challenge so many people think it is – especially right now.

Let’s break down what’s really going on and why the recent shift in the approach investors are taking could tip the scales in your favor.

Large Investors Are Pulling Back

The truth is institutional investors never represented as big a share of the housing market as people think. And now, they’re backing off even more.

Today, big real estate investors aren’t buying as many homes. In fact, they’re actually selling more than they’re buying.

According to data from Parcl Labs, 6 out of 8 of the largest institutional single-family rental investment companies in America sold more homes than they bought in the second quarter of 2025 (see graph below):

a graph of sales and purchase

And here’s the stat that really puts it in perspective. According to Dominion Financial, for every home being bought by big investors, about 1.75 are being sold.

What’s Causing Big Investors To Change Course?

The reason institutional investors aren’t buying as many homes now compared to recent years is actually pretty simple. It’s because home values aren’t rising as fast as they were a few years ago, but the costs associated with rental maintenance are.

Since most institutional investors buy homes to rent them out, those higher costs eat into their margins. Remember, to investors, homebuying is a business.

But you’re not buying a home just for this year or next. You’re buying a place to build a life, and that’s a long-term play.

Historically, home values tend to rise over time. So, while investors may be sidelined by what’s happening right now, you’re in a different position entirely. You have the chance to buy while competition is lower and benefit from potential long-term price appreciation – something most investors are choosing not to wait for as they focus on shorter-term returns.

What Does All This Mean for You?

According to a recent survey, about 55% of real estate investors have no plans to grow their rental portfolios now or in the near future. With big investors stepping back, that means less competition from deep-pocketed buyers. And since they’re adding to today’s for-sale inventory, it also creates more options for you.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been holding off on buying, now might be the time to take another look. Connect with a local real estate agent so you can get expert guidance on what’s available and what might be a good fit for you.

What kind of home would you be excited to make yours this year?

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Affordability

Multi-Generational Homebuying Hit a Record High – Here’s Why

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Multi-generational living is on the rise. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), 17% of homebuyers purchase a home to share with parents, adult children, or extended family. That’s the highest share ever recorded by NAR (see graph below):

a graph of sales growthAnd what’s behind the increase? Affordability. NAR explains:

“In 2024, a notable 36% of homebuyers cited “cost savings” as the primary reason for purchasing a multigenerational home—a significant increase from just 15% in 2015.”

In the past, caregiving was the leading motivator – especially for those looking to support aging parents. And while that’s still important, affordability is now the #1 motivator. And with current market conditions, that’s not really a surprise.

Pooling Resources Can Help Make Homeownership Possible

With today’s home prices and mortgage rates, it can be hard for people to afford a home on their own. That’s why more families are teaming up and pooling their resources.

By combining incomes and sharing expenses like the mortgage, utility bills, and more, multi-generational living offers a way to overcome financial challenges that might otherwise put homeownership out of reach. As Rick Sharga, Founder and CEO at CJ Patrick Company, explains:

“There are a few ways to improve affordability, at least marginally. . . purchase a property with a family member — there are a growing number of multi-generational households across the country today, and affordability is one of the reasons for this.”

But this strategy doesn’t just help with affordability. It may even allow you to get a larger home than you’d qualify for on your own and that gives everyone a bit more breathing room. As Chris Berk, VP of Mortgage Insights at Veterans United, explains:

“Multigenerational homes are more than a trend: They are a meaningful solution for families looking to care for one another while making the most of their homebuying power.”

And momentum may be growing. Nearly 3 in 10 (28%) of homebuyers say they’re planning to purchase a multi-generational home.

Maybe it’s a solution that would make sense for you too. The best way to find out? Talk to a local real estate agent who can help you decide if this option would work for you.

Bottom Line

If your budget feels tight, buying a multi-generational home could be a smart solution. 

Would you ever consider buying a home with a family member? Why or why not? 

Connect with an agent to talk through your options.

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Economy

Think It’s Better To Wait for a Recession Before You Move? Think Again.

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Fear of a recession is back in the headlines. And if you’re thinking about buying or selling sometime soon, that may leave you wondering if you should reconsider the timing of your move.

A recent survey by John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM) shows 68% of people are delaying plans to buy or sell due to economic uncertainty.

But it may not be for the reason you think. Not everyone is holding off because they’re worried. Some buyers are waiting because they’re hopeful. According to Realtor.com:

In 2025Q1, 3 in 10 (29.8% of) surveyed homebuyers said a recession would make them at least somewhat more likely to purchase a home . . . This reflects a common dynamic where some buyers see a downturn as an opportunity. If the economy enters a recession, the Federal Reserve may respond by lowering interest rates to stimulate activity, potentially putting downward pressure on mortgage rates and easing affordability concerns. As a result, buyers—especially those with limited down payments—might view a recession as a more favorable time to enter the market.”

And there’s some truth to the idea that a recession could bring about lower mortgage rates. History shows mortgage rates usually drop during economic slowdowns. That’s not guaranteed – but it is a common pattern. Looking at data from the last six recessions, you can see mortgage rates fell each time (see graph below): 

a graph of a graph showing the rise of mortgage ratesBut here’s what those buyers may not be considering. Many of those hopeful buyers are assuming something else will happen too – that home prices will drop. And that’s where history tells a different story.

According to data from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), home prices went up in four of the last six recessions (see graph below)

So, while many people think that if a recession hits, home prices will fall like they did in 2008, that was an exception, not the rule. It was the only time the market saw such a steep drop in prices. And it hasn’t happened since, mainly because there’s still a long-standing inventory deficit, even as the number of homes on the market is rising.

Since prices tend to stay on whatever path they’re already on, know this: prices are still holding steady or rising in most metros, although at a much slower pace. So, a big drop isn’t likely. As Robert Frick, Corporate Economist with Navy Federal Credit Union, explains:

“Hopes that an economic slowdown will depress housing prices are wishful thinking at this point . . .”

Bottom Line

If you’ve been waiting for a recession to make your move, it’s important to understand what really happens during one – and what likely won’t. Lower mortgage rates could be on the table. But lower home prices? That’s far less likely.

Don’t wait for a market that may never come. If you’re thinking about buying or selling, connect with an agent to talk through what today’s economy really means for you – and make a smart plan that works in your favor, regardless of what the headlines say.

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The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, Landshark Mark, LLC and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.