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Economy

How the Economy Impacts Mortgage Rates

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As someone who’s thinking about buying or selling a home, you’re probably paying close attention to mortgage rates – and wondering what’s ahead.

One thing that can affect mortgage rates is the Federal Funds Rate, which influences how much it costs banks to borrow money from each other. While the Federal Reserve (the Fed) doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, they do control the Federal Funds Rate.

The relationship between the two is why people have been watching closely to see when the Fed might lower the Federal Funds Rate. Whenever they do, that’ll put downward pressure on mortgage rates. The Fed meets next week, and three of the most important metrics they’ll look at as they make their decision are:

  1. The Rate of Inflation
  2. How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding
  3. The Unemployment Rate

Here’s the latest data on all three.

1. The Rate of Inflation

You’ve probably heard a lot about inflation over the past year or two – and you’ve likely felt it whenever you’ve gone to buy just about anything. That’s because high inflation means prices have been going up quickly.

The Fed has stated its goal is to get the rate of inflation back down to 2%. Right now, it’s still higher than that, but moving in the right direction (see graph below):

2. How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding

The Fed is also watching how many new jobs are created each month. They want to see job growth slow down consistently before taking any action on the Federal Funds Rate. If fewer jobs are created, it means the economy is still strong but cooling a bit – which is their goal. That appears to be exactly what’s happening now. Inman says:

“. . . the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers added fewer jobs in April and May than previously thought and that hiring by private companies was sluggish in June.”

So, while employers are still adding jobs, they’re not adding as many as before. That’s an indicator the economy is slowing down after being overheated for quite some time. This is an encouraging trend for the Fed to see.

3. The Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate is the percentage of people who want to work but can’t find jobs. So, a low rate means a lot of Americans are employed. That’s a good thing for many people.

But it can also lead to higher inflation because more people working means more spending – which drives up prices. Right now, the unemployment rate is low, but it’s been rising slowly over the past few months (see graph below):

No Caption ReceivedIt may seem harsh, but a consistently rising unemployment rate is something the Fed needs to see before deciding to cut the Federal Funds Rate. That’s because a higher unemployment rate would mean reduced spending, and that would help get inflation back under control.

What Does This Mean Moving Forward?

While mortgage rates are going to continue to be volatile in the days and months ahead, these are signs the economy is headed in the direction the Fed wants to see. But even with that, it’s unlikely they’ll cut the Federal Funds Rate when they meet next week. Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, recently said:

“We want to be more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% before we start the process of reducing or loosening policy.”

Basically, we’re seeing the first signs now, but they need more data and more time to feel confident that this is a consistent trend. Assuming that direction continues, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, experts say there’s a projected 96.1% chance the Fed will lower the Federal Funds Rate at their September meeting.

Remember, the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates. It’s just that whenever they decide to cut the Federal Funds Rate, mortgage rates should respond.

Of course, the timing of when the Fed takes action could change because of new economic reports, world events, and other factors. That’s why it’s usually not a good idea to try to time the market.

Bottom Line

Recent economic data may signal that hope is on the horizon for mortgage rates. Count on a local real estate agent you can trust to keep you up to date on the latest trends and what they mean for you.

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Economy

Is It Time To Put Your House Back on the Market?

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If you took your house off the market in late 2024, you’re not the only one. Newsweek reports that data from CoreLogic and the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) says nearly 73,000 homes were pulled from the market in December alone – that’s more than any other December going all the way back to 2017 (see graph below):

a graph of blue bars with numbersWhether it was because offers weren’t coming in, the timing around the holidays felt overwhelming, or they wanted to see if the market would improve in the new year – a lot of other homeowners decided to press pause, too.

But now, with spring fast approaching, it’s time to reassess. The market is already picking up, and waiting any longer to jump back in may only mean you’d face more competition from other sellers down the road.

Why Now Could Be the Right Time 

Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains that some of those sellers may have pulled their listings late last year with the goal of trying again this spring: 

“Another reason for a step back could be that sellers wanted to wait and see how spring home buying season goes, and if mortgage rates fall, which would bring more home buyers and competition back in the market.”

That’s because spring is when buyer demand is typically at its highest point for the year. More people start their home search once the weather warms up. They’re eager to close on a home so they can move in during the summer. So, it’s a great window for sellers. It means more buyers.

And while mortgage rates haven’t fallen dramatically, they have come down some in recent weeks. Early signs already show buyers are becoming more active as a result. Since January, demand has picked up – and that should continue as spring draws even closer.

What To Do Differently This Time

Start by checking the status of your listing agreement. Because even if you pulled your listing, you may still be under contract. And until your listing expires, your agent or brokerage is your best resource on what else you could try to get it sold. Realtor.com offers this advice:

“If you aren’t sure of the status of your listing, whether active, expired, or withdrawn, take a look at your listing agreement and talk to your real estate agent.”

If your contract is still active, now’s the perfect time to reconnect with your agent to explore strategies to get your home sold this time around. If your contract has since expired and you’re considering other options, reach out to a trusted real estate professional who can help you figure out where to go from here.

Either way, take some time to reflect on your last experience. What held you back from getting it sold before? And what can you do to improve your chances this time around? 

Be sure to include your current agent in this thought process. They’ll give you an objective point of view and some advice based on what may have gone wrong last time, like: 

  • Your Pricing Strategy: Did buyers overlook your house because it was priced too high? Your real estate agent can help you analyze the latest sales in your area to make sure you’re hitting the right number. Believe it or not, you could actually be leaving money on the table by not pricing competitively. When it’s priced appropriately for the market, your opportunities for multiple offers and buyer competition increase.
  • Your Marketing Approach: Was your home staged to look its best? Did you use a skilled photographer for your listing photos? Small tweaks can make a big difference in how buyers see your house. Something as simple as taking new photos now that it’s spring can help your house show better than it did in the winter listing.
  • Offering Concessions: Were you willing to offer incentives to buyers? As the supply of homes for sale grows, more sellers are entertaining the idea of concessions or incentives to get the deal done. If you weren’t open to those conversations, that may have been a factor, too.
  • Showings and Flexibility: Did you have limits on when buyers could see the home? If your house is accessible and available, you’ll likely get more offers.  

Bottom Line

If your house didn’t sell last year, spring may be your second chance. With buyer activity rising, it’s the perfect time to talk to an agent about coming back into the market with a fresh strategy. 

What do you want to do differently this time around? Talk to your agent to go over your options and make a plan.

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Economy

Investors Are Not Buying Up All the Homes

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a screenshot of a social media ad

Some Highlights

  • There’s a misconception Wall Street is buying all the homes on the market. But data proves that isn’t true.​
  • Experts agree the share of homes bought by investors is declining – and most are smaller investors, like your neighbor who owns a second home, not Wall Street.
  • No matter what you’ve heard, the majority of homes are still being purchased by everyday homebuyers like you – not big investors. Connect with an agent if you have questions.​

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Agent Value

What’s Behind Today’s Mortgage Rate Volatility?

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If you’ve been keeping an eye on mortgage rates lately, you might feel like you’re on a roller coaster ride. One day rates are up; the next they dip down a bit. So, what’s driving this constant change? Let’s dive into just a few of the major reasons why we’re seeing so much volatility, and what it means for you.

The Market’s Reaction to the Election

A significant factor causing fluctuations in mortgage rates is the general reaction to the political landscape. Election seasons often bring uncertainty to financial markets, and this one is no different. Markets tend to respond not only to who won, but also to the economic policies they are expected to implement. And when it comes to what’s been happening with mortgage rates over the past couple of weeks, as the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) says:

“. . . the primary reason interest rates have been on the rise pertains to the uncertainty surrounding the presidential election. Although the election is now complete, there continue to be growing concerns over budget deficits.”

In the short term, this anticipation has caused a slight uptick in mortgage rates as the markets adjust and react. Additionally, factors like international tensions, supply chain disruptions, and trade policies can drive investor sentiment, causing them to seek safer assets like bonds, which can indirectly impact mortgage rates. Essentially, the more global or domestic uncertainty, the greater the chance that mortgage rates may shift.

The Economy and the Federal Reserve

Inflation and unemployment are two other big drivers of mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) has been working to bring inflation under control, and has been closely monitoring the economy as they do. And as long as inflation continues to moderate and the job market shows signs of maximum employment, the Fed will continue its plans to cut the Federal Funds Rate.

Although the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, their decisions do have an impact, and typically a cut leads to a mortgage rates response. And in their November 6-7th meeting, the Fed had the data they needed to make another cut to the Federal Funds Rate. And while that decision was expected and much of the mortgage rate movement happened prior to that meeting, there was a slight dip in rates.

What To Expect in the Coming Months

As we look ahead, mortgage rates will respond to changes in the Fed’s policies and other economic indicators. The markets will likely remain in a wait-and-see mode, reacting to each new development. And, with the transition of a new administration comes an element of unpredictability. A recent article from The Mortgage Reports explains:

“Today’s economic indicators come with mixed pressures on mortgage rates and we’re likely to be in for a good amount of volatility as markets adjust and respond to the election . . .”

The best way to navigate this landscape is to have a team of real estate experts by your side. Professionals will help you understand what’s happening and can provide you with the guidance you need to make informed housing market decisions along the way.

Bottom Line

The takeaway? Today’s mortgage rate volatility is going to continue to be driven by economic factors and political changes.

Now is the time to lean on experienced professionals. A trusted real estate agent and mortgage lender can help you navigate through it. And with the right guidance, you can make informed decisions.

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The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.