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Economy

Two Reasons Why the Housing Market Won’t Crash

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You may have heard chatter recently about the economy and talk about a possible recession. It’s no surprise that kind of noise gets some people worried about a housing market crash. Maybe you’re one of them. But here’s the good news – there’s no need to panic. The housing market is not set up for a crash right now.

Real estate journalist Michele Lerner says:

“A housing market crash happens when home values plummet due to a lack of demand for homes or an oversupply.”

With that definition in mind, here are two reasons why this just isn’t on the horizon.

1. Demand for Homes Is Higher than Supply

One of the biggest reasons the housing market crashed back in 2008 was an oversupply of homes. Today, though, it’s a very different story.

It’s a general rule of thumb that a market where supply and demand are balanced has a six-month supply of homes. A higher number means supply outpaces demand, and a lower number means demand outpaces supply. The graph below uses data from NAR to put today’s situation into context:

a graph of a company's supplyThe graph compares housing supply during three different periods of time. The red bar shows there were 13 months of supply before the 2008 crisis, which was far too much. The gray bar shows a balanced market with six months of supply, for context. And the blue bar shows there are only 4.2 months of supply today.

Put simply, there are more people who want to buy homes than there are homes available to buy right now. So, demand is greater than supply. When that happens, home prices stay steady or rise – the opposite of a housing market crash.

It’s important to note that inventory levels differ from market to market. Some areas may be more balanced, while a few could have a slight oversupply, which can impact prices locally. However, most markets continue to experience a shortage of homes.

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

We simply don’t have enough inventory. Will some markets see a price decline? Yes. [But] with the supply not being there, the repeat of a 30 percent price decline is highly, highly unlikely.”

2. Unemployment Is Still Low

When people are unemployed, they’re more likely to have trouble making their mortgage payments and may be forced to sell or face foreclosure. That was a big problem during the 2008 financial crisis. Today, the employment situation is much more stable (see graph below):

a graph of employmentAgain, this graph shows three different periods of time, but this one is the unemployment rate. The red bar represents the 2008 financial crisis when unemployment was very high at 8.3%. The gray bar shows the 75-year average of 5.7%. And the blue bar shows the unemployment rate today, and it’s much lower at just 4.1%.

Right now, people are working, earning an income, and making their mortgage payments. That’s one reason why the wave of foreclosures that happened in 2008 isn’t going to happen again this time. Plus, since so many people are employed right now, many are actually in a position to buy a home, and this demand keeps upward pressure on prices.

Today’s Housing Market Is Stronger than in 2008

While it’s understandable to be concerned when you hear talk of a recession and economic uncertainty, but know this: the housing market is in a much better place than it was in 2008. According to Rick Sharga, Founder and CEO at CJ Patrick Company:

“Literally everything is different about today’s housing market dynamics than the conditions that led to the housing crisis.”

Demand for homes still outpaces supply, and unemployment remains low. And these are two key factors that will help prevent the housing market from crashing any time soon.

Bottom Line

The housing market is in a much better place than it was in 2008, but it’s important to remember that real estate is very local.

So, it’s always a good idea to stay informed about your specific market. If you have any questions or want to discuss how these factors are playing out in your area, reach out to a local real estate agent.

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Economy

Is It Time To Put Your House Back on the Market?

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If you took your house off the market in late 2024, you’re not the only one. Newsweek reports that data from CoreLogic and the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) says nearly 73,000 homes were pulled from the market in December alone – that’s more than any other December going all the way back to 2017 (see graph below):

a graph of blue bars with numbersWhether it was because offers weren’t coming in, the timing around the holidays felt overwhelming, or they wanted to see if the market would improve in the new year – a lot of other homeowners decided to press pause, too.

But now, with spring fast approaching, it’s time to reassess. The market is already picking up, and waiting any longer to jump back in may only mean you’d face more competition from other sellers down the road.

Why Now Could Be the Right Time 

Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains that some of those sellers may have pulled their listings late last year with the goal of trying again this spring: 

“Another reason for a step back could be that sellers wanted to wait and see how spring home buying season goes, and if mortgage rates fall, which would bring more home buyers and competition back in the market.”

That’s because spring is when buyer demand is typically at its highest point for the year. More people start their home search once the weather warms up. They’re eager to close on a home so they can move in during the summer. So, it’s a great window for sellers. It means more buyers.

And while mortgage rates haven’t fallen dramatically, they have come down some in recent weeks. Early signs already show buyers are becoming more active as a result. Since January, demand has picked up – and that should continue as spring draws even closer.

What To Do Differently This Time

Start by checking the status of your listing agreement. Because even if you pulled your listing, you may still be under contract. And until your listing expires, your agent or brokerage is your best resource on what else you could try to get it sold. Realtor.com offers this advice:

“If you aren’t sure of the status of your listing, whether active, expired, or withdrawn, take a look at your listing agreement and talk to your real estate agent.”

If your contract is still active, now’s the perfect time to reconnect with your agent to explore strategies to get your home sold this time around. If your contract has since expired and you’re considering other options, reach out to a trusted real estate professional who can help you figure out where to go from here.

Either way, take some time to reflect on your last experience. What held you back from getting it sold before? And what can you do to improve your chances this time around? 

Be sure to include your current agent in this thought process. They’ll give you an objective point of view and some advice based on what may have gone wrong last time, like: 

  • Your Pricing Strategy: Did buyers overlook your house because it was priced too high? Your real estate agent can help you analyze the latest sales in your area to make sure you’re hitting the right number. Believe it or not, you could actually be leaving money on the table by not pricing competitively. When it’s priced appropriately for the market, your opportunities for multiple offers and buyer competition increase.
  • Your Marketing Approach: Was your home staged to look its best? Did you use a skilled photographer for your listing photos? Small tweaks can make a big difference in how buyers see your house. Something as simple as taking new photos now that it’s spring can help your house show better than it did in the winter listing.
  • Offering Concessions: Were you willing to offer incentives to buyers? As the supply of homes for sale grows, more sellers are entertaining the idea of concessions or incentives to get the deal done. If you weren’t open to those conversations, that may have been a factor, too.
  • Showings and Flexibility: Did you have limits on when buyers could see the home? If your house is accessible and available, you’ll likely get more offers.  

Bottom Line

If your house didn’t sell last year, spring may be your second chance. With buyer activity rising, it’s the perfect time to talk to an agent about coming back into the market with a fresh strategy. 

What do you want to do differently this time around? Talk to your agent to go over your options and make a plan.

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Economy

Investors Are Not Buying Up All the Homes

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a screenshot of a social media ad

Some Highlights

  • There’s a misconception Wall Street is buying all the homes on the market. But data proves that isn’t true.​
  • Experts agree the share of homes bought by investors is declining – and most are smaller investors, like your neighbor who owns a second home, not Wall Street.
  • No matter what you’ve heard, the majority of homes are still being purchased by everyday homebuyers like you – not big investors. Connect with an agent if you have questions.​

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Agent Value

What’s Behind Today’s Mortgage Rate Volatility?

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If you’ve been keeping an eye on mortgage rates lately, you might feel like you’re on a roller coaster ride. One day rates are up; the next they dip down a bit. So, what’s driving this constant change? Let’s dive into just a few of the major reasons why we’re seeing so much volatility, and what it means for you.

The Market’s Reaction to the Election

A significant factor causing fluctuations in mortgage rates is the general reaction to the political landscape. Election seasons often bring uncertainty to financial markets, and this one is no different. Markets tend to respond not only to who won, but also to the economic policies they are expected to implement. And when it comes to what’s been happening with mortgage rates over the past couple of weeks, as the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) says:

“. . . the primary reason interest rates have been on the rise pertains to the uncertainty surrounding the presidential election. Although the election is now complete, there continue to be growing concerns over budget deficits.”

In the short term, this anticipation has caused a slight uptick in mortgage rates as the markets adjust and react. Additionally, factors like international tensions, supply chain disruptions, and trade policies can drive investor sentiment, causing them to seek safer assets like bonds, which can indirectly impact mortgage rates. Essentially, the more global or domestic uncertainty, the greater the chance that mortgage rates may shift.

The Economy and the Federal Reserve

Inflation and unemployment are two other big drivers of mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) has been working to bring inflation under control, and has been closely monitoring the economy as they do. And as long as inflation continues to moderate and the job market shows signs of maximum employment, the Fed will continue its plans to cut the Federal Funds Rate.

Although the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, their decisions do have an impact, and typically a cut leads to a mortgage rates response. And in their November 6-7th meeting, the Fed had the data they needed to make another cut to the Federal Funds Rate. And while that decision was expected and much of the mortgage rate movement happened prior to that meeting, there was a slight dip in rates.

What To Expect in the Coming Months

As we look ahead, mortgage rates will respond to changes in the Fed’s policies and other economic indicators. The markets will likely remain in a wait-and-see mode, reacting to each new development. And, with the transition of a new administration comes an element of unpredictability. A recent article from The Mortgage Reports explains:

“Today’s economic indicators come with mixed pressures on mortgage rates and we’re likely to be in for a good amount of volatility as markets adjust and respond to the election . . .”

The best way to navigate this landscape is to have a team of real estate experts by your side. Professionals will help you understand what’s happening and can provide you with the guidance you need to make informed housing market decisions along the way.

Bottom Line

The takeaway? Today’s mortgage rate volatility is going to continue to be driven by economic factors and political changes.

Now is the time to lean on experienced professionals. A trusted real estate agent and mortgage lender can help you navigate through it. And with the right guidance, you can make informed decisions.

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The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, Landshark Mark, LLC and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.