Equity
Why Today’s Mortgage Debt Isn’t a Sign of a Housing Market Crash
One major reason why we’re not heading toward a foreclosure crisis is the high level of equity homeowners have today. Unlike in the last housing bubble, where many homeowners owed more than their homes were worth, today’s homeowners have far more equity than debt.
That’s a big part of the reason why even though mortgage debt is at an all-time high, this isn’t 2008 all over again. As Bill McBride, Housing Analyst for Calculated Risk, explains:
“With the recent house price increases, some people are worried about a new housing bubble – but mortgage debt isn’t a concern . . .”
Today’s homeowners are in a much stronger position than ever before. So, let’s break it down and see why today’s mortgage debt isn’t anything to fear.
More Equity, Less Risk of Foreclosures
According to the St. Louis Fed, total homeowner equity is nearly triple the total mortgage debt today (see graph below):
High equity makes it less likely for homeowners to face foreclosure because they have more options. If someone struggles to make their mortgage payments, they could potentially sell their house and still come out ahead thanks to their built-up equity.
Even if home values were to dip, most homeowners would still have a comfortable cushion of equity. That’s a big contrast to the 2008 crisis, where many homeowners were underwater on their mortgages and had few options to avoid foreclosure.
Delinquency Rates Are Still Near Historic Lows
Another reassuring sign is that, according to the NY Fed, the number of mortgage payments that are more than 90 days late is still near historic lows (see graph below):
This is partly due to a variety of programs designed to help homeowners through temporary hardships. As Marina Walsh, VP of Industry Analysis at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), says:
“. . . servicers are helping at-risk homeowners avoid foreclosures through loan workout options that can mitigate temporary distress.”
So, even if someone falls behind on their payments, there are support systems in place to help them avoid foreclosure.
Low Unemployment Helps Keep the Market Stable
One other important factor is today’s low unemployment rate. More people have stable jobs, which means they’re better able to afford their mortgage payments. As Archana Pradhan, Principal Economist at CoreLogic, explains:
“Low unemployment numbers have helped reduce the overall delinquency rate . . .”
During the last housing crisis, unemployment was much higher, which led to a wave of foreclosures. Today’s unemployment rate is very different (see graph below):
That stability in how many people are employed is one of the reasons the market doesn’t have the same risks as it did the last time.
There’s no need to worry about a wave of distressed sales like the one we saw in 2008. Most homeowners today are employed and have low-interest mortgages they can afford, so they’re able to make their payments. As McBride states:
“The bottom line is there will not be a huge wave of distressed sales as happened following the housing bubble.”
Bottom Line
While mortgage debt is high, rest assured the market isn’t on the brink of another crash. Instead, most homeowners are in a strong position. If you have questions or concerns, connect with a local real estate agent.
Some Highlights
- Over the past 5 years, home prices have risen dramatically. If you own a home, that means your house may be worth a lot more than you think.
- Nationally, prices are up nearly 60% since 2019. And, if selling has been on your mind, you can use that bigger-than-expected return to power your next move.
- If you want to know how much your home is worth in today’s market, reach out to a local agent. The number may surprise you.
Some Highlights
- Are you torn between whether to buy a home now or wait? Consider this.
- Forecasts show prices will climb for at least the next 5 years. If you wait, the price of a home will be higher later on. But, if you buy a $400K now, you could gain roughly $83K in equity as prices rise.
- If you’re able to buy now, this equity is one reason why it’ll be worth it in the long run. Connect with an agent if you’re ready to talk through ways we can make it happen.
Have you ever stopped to think about how much wealth you’ve built up just from being a homeowner? As home values rise, so does your net worth. And, if you’ve been in your house for a few years (or longer), there’s a good chance you’re sitting on a pile of equity — maybe even more than you realize.
What Is Home Equity?
Home equity is the difference between what your house is worth and what you owe on your mortgage. For example, if your house is worth $500,000 and you still owe $200,000 on your home loan, you have $300,000 in equity. It’s essentially the wealth you’ve built through homeownership. Right now, homeowners across the country are seeing record amounts of equity.
According to Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the average homeowner with a mortgage has $319,000 in home equity.
Why Have Homeowners Gained So Much Equity?
The rise in home equity over the years can be credited to two key factors:
1. Significant Home Price Growth
Home prices have climbed dramatically in recent years. In fact, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), over the past five years, home prices nationwide have risen by 57.4% (see map below):
This appreciation means your house is likely worth much more now than when you first bought it.
2. Longer Tenure in Homes
Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows people are staying in their homes for a decade (see graph below):
This increased tenure means homeowners benefit even more from home values growing over time. That’s because the longer someone has lived in their house, the more that home’s value has grown, which directly increases equity.
And if you’re one of those people who’s been in their home for 10 years or more, know this – according to NAR:
“Over the past decade, the typical homeowner has accumulated $201,600 in wealth solely from price appreciation.”
The Benefits of Having Home Equity
What does that mean for you? It means your house might be your biggest financial asset — and it could open up some exciting opportunities for your future. Let’s break it down.
- Moving to Your Next Home
Your equity could help you cover the down payment for your next home. In some cases, it might even mean you can buy your next house all cash.
- Financing Home Improvements
Thinking about upgrading your kitchen, adding a home office, or tackling other projects? Your equity can provide the funds to make those improvements happen, increasing your home’s value and making it more enjoyable to live in too.
- Getting a Business Going
If you’ve been dreaming about starting your own business, your equity could be the kickstart you need. Whether it’s for startup costs, equipment, or marketing, leveraging your home’s value can help bring your entrepreneurial goals to life.
Bottom Line
Whether you’re thinking about selling, upgrading, or simply want to understand your options, your home equity is a powerful resource. If you’re wondering how much equity you’ve built or how you can use it to meet your goals, connect with a local real estate agent to explore the possibilities.
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