Fear of a recession is back in the headlines. And if you’re thinking about buying or selling sometime soon, that may leave you wondering if you should reconsider the timing of your move.

A recent survey by John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM) shows 68% of people are delaying plans to buy or sell due to economic uncertainty.

But it may not be for the reason you think. Not everyone is holding off because they’re worried. Some buyers are waiting because they’re hopeful. According to Realtor.com:

“In 2025Q1, 3 in 10 (29.8% of) surveyed homebuyers said a recession would make them at least somewhat more likely to purchase a home . . . This reflects a common dynamic where some buyers see a downturn as an opportunity. If the economy enters a recession, the Federal Reserve may respond by lowering interest rates to stimulate activity, potentially putting downward pressure on mortgage rates and easing affordability concerns. As a result, buyers—especially those with limited down payments—might view a recession as a more favorable time to enter the market.”

And there’s some truth to the idea that a recession could bring about lower mortgage rates. History shows mortgage rates usually drop during economic slowdowns. That’s not guaranteed – but it is a common pattern. Looking at data from the last six recessions, you can see mortgage rates fell each time (see graph below): 

But here’s what those buyers may not be considering. Many of those hopeful buyers are assuming something else will happen too – that home prices will drop. And that’s where history tells a different story.

According to data from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), home prices went up in four of the last six recessions (see graph below)

So, while many people think that if a recession hits, home prices will fall like they did in 2008, that was an exception, not the rule. It was the only time the market saw such a steep drop in prices. And it hasn’t happened since, mainly because there’s still a long-standing inventory deficit, even as the number of homes on the market is rising.

Since prices tend to stay on whatever path they’re already on, know this: prices are still holding steady or rising in most metros, although at a much slower pace. So, a big drop isn’t likely. As Robert Frick, Corporate Economist with Navy Federal Credit Union, explains:

“Hopes that an economic slowdown will depress housing prices are wishful thinking at this point . . .”

Bottom Line

If you’ve been waiting for a recession to make your move, it’s important to understand what really happens during one – and what likely won’t. Lower mortgage rates could be on the table. But lower home prices? That’s far less likely.

Don’t wait for a market that may never come. If you’re thinking about buying or selling, connect with an agent to talk through what today’s economy really means for you – and make a smart plan that works in your favor, regardless of what the headlines say.

Some Highlights

• In a recent poll from Gallup, real estate has once again been voted the best long-term investment. And it’s claimed that top spot for 12 straight years now.
• That’s because homeownership is one of the top ways to build your wealth, even with home price growth moderating and ongoing economic uncertainty.
• If you’ve been trying to decide if it makes sense to buy a home today, connect with an agent to talk about the programs that can help you become a homeowner.

With all the uncertainty in the economy, the stock market has been bouncing around more than usual. And if you’ve been watching your 401(k) or investments lately, chances are you’ve felt that pit in your stomach. One day it’s up. The next day, it’s not. And that may make you feel a little worried about your finances.

But here’s the thing you need to remember if you’re a homeowner. According to Investopedia:

“Traditionally, stocks have been far more volatile than real estate. That’s not to say that real estate prices aren’t ever volatile—the years around the 2007 to 2008 financial crisis are just one memorable example—but stocks are more prone to large value swings.”

While your stocks or 401(k) might see a lot of highs and lows, home values are much less volatile.

A Drop in the Stock Market Doesn’t Mean a Crash in Home Prices

Take a look at the graph below. It shows what happened to home prices (the blue bars) during past stock market swings (the orange bars):

Even when the stock market falls more substantially, home prices don’t always come down with it.

Big home price drops like 2008 are the exception, not the rule. But everyone remembers that one. That stock market crash was caused by loose lending practices, subprime mortgages, and an oversupply of homes – a scenario that doesn’t exist today. That’s what made it so different.

In many cases before and after that time, home values actually went up while the stock market went down, showing that real estate is generally much more stable.

This graph shows how stock prices go up and down (the orange line), sometimes by more than 30% in a year. In contrast, home prices (the blue line) change more slowly (see graph below):

Basically, stock values jump around a lot more than home prices do. You can be way up one day and way down the next. Real estate, on the other hand, isn’t usually something that experiences such dramatic swings.

That’s why real estate can feel more stable and less risky than the stock market.

So, if you’re worried after the recent ups and downs in your stock portfolio, rest assured, your home isn’t likely to experience the same volatility.

And that’s why homeownership is generally viewed as a preferred long-term investment. Even if things feel uncertain right now, homeowners win in the long run.

Bottom Line

A lot of people are feeling nervous about their finances right now. But there’s one reason for you to feel more secure – your investment in something that’s stood the test of time: real estate.