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Is January the Best Time To Buy a Home?

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You may not want to put your homebuying plans into hibernation mode this winter. While a lot of people assume spring is the ideal time to buy a house, new data shows January may actually be the best time of year for budget-conscious buyers. 

Kind of surprising, right? Here’s why January deserves a serious look.

1. Prices Tend To Be Lower This Time of Year

Lending Tree says January is the least expensive month to buy a home. And there’s something to that. January has historically offered one of the lowest price-per-square-foot points of the entire year. But the spring? That’s when demand (and prices) usually peak. And that’s not speculation – it’s a well-known trend based on years of market data.

a graph of a number of blue barsSo, how much less are we talking? Here’s a look at the numbers. According to the last full year of data, for the typical 1,500 square foot house, buyers who closed on their home in January paid around $23,000 less compared to those who bought in May. And that general trend typically holds true each year (see chart below):

a blue and white table with white textNow, your number is going to depend on the price, size, and type of the home you’re buying. But the trend is clear. For today’s buyers, it’s meaningful savings, especially when affordability is still tight for so many households.

2. Fewer Buyers and More Motivated Sellers 

And why do buyers typically save in the winter? It’s simple. Winter is one of the slowest times in the housing market each year. Both buyers and sellers tend to pull back, thinking it’s better to wait until spring. And that means:

  • You face less competition
  • You’re less likely to get into a multiple offer scenario
  • Sellers are more willing to negotiate (since there aren’t as many buyers)

With fewer buyers in the market, you can take your time browsing.

But winter doesn’t just thin out the pool of buyers, it also reveals which sellers truly need to sell. Because fewer people are house hunting during the colder months, sellers who really need to move tend to be more open to negotiating. As Realtor.com explains:

“Less competition means fewer bidding wars and more power to negotiate the extras that add up: closing cost credits, home warranties, even repair concessions. . . these concessions can end up knocking thousands of dollars off the price of a home.”

This can include everything from price cuts to covering closing costs, adjusting timelines, and more. It doesn’t mean you’ll automatically get discounts on every home. But it does mean you’re more likely to be taken seriously and given room to negotiate.

Should You Wait for Spring?

Here’s the real takeaway. When you remove the pressure and frenzy that comes with the busy spring season, it becomes much easier to get the home you want at a price that fits your budget.

But if you wait until spring, more buyers will be in the market. So, waiting could actually mean you spend more and you’d have to deal with more stress.

Now, only you can decide the right timing for your life, but don’t assume you should wait for warmer weather before you move.

Buying in January gives you: less competition, potentially lower prices, and more motivated sellers. And those are three perks you’re not going to see if you wait until spring.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been thinking about taking the next step, this season might give you more opportunity than you think.

Curious what buying in January could look like for you? Talk to a local agent who can help you take a closer look at your numbers and the homes that are available in your area.

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Affordability

Affordability Has Improved in All 50 States

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For the past few years, affordability has been what’s stopped a lot of buyers in their tracks. Maybe it stopped you, too.

At some point you probably did the math, looked at the monthly payment, and decided to pause your search and wait for things to get better. But here’s something you may have missed while you’ve been sitting on the sidelines.

Over the last year, housing affordability has improved in all 50 states. Yes, you read that right. It’s gotten better in every single state.

That’s based on new research coming out of First American. And while housing is still fairly expensive compared to historical standards, the pressure buyers felt over the last few years is finally starting to ease.

Some Areas Are Seeing Bigger Improvements

The first thing you need to know is that this isn’t just happening in one region or in a small handful of cities. The trend is happening almost everywhere.

Sure, individual states, cities, and even neighborhoods are going to vary – sometimes by a lot. But overall, more buyers are able to buy again. And in 48 of the top 50 metros, affordability has improved over the past year.

That same research breaks down which cities are seeing the biggest gains:

a house with palm trees and brick drivewayJust in case you’re wondering: why these areas? It’s simple. In many cases, it comes down to the number of homes for sale.

When buyers have more choices, it creates a healthier balance in the market and that can help bring affordability back within reach. With homes up for grabs, it opens the door a bit wider for buyers to negotiate with sellers for credits, price cuts, and more. And it gives you more chances to find a house that works for your needs and budget.

It may make more of a difference than you think.

None of this means affordability challenges have completely disappeared. Buying a home is still a big financial decision. But the trend is moving in a direction many buyers have been waiting for.

As Chen Zhao, Head of Economic Research at Redfin, puts it:

“The housing affordability crisis is showing signs of easing . . . opening the door for more Americans to make the jump to homeownership.”

Bottom Line

If you were holding off on buying, this could be exactly the signal you’ve been waiting so long for. To find out how much affordability’s improved in your area, connect with a local real estate agent.

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Affordability

Should You Wait for Lower Rates?

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Mortgage rates have already dropped into the upper 5s twice this year. But after just a few days, they ticked back up into the low 6% range. If you saw that and thought, “Great. I missed it,” you’re not the only one.

A lot of buyers are treating the 5s like some kind of magic number. As if moving from 6.1% to 5.99% suddenly changes everything. And from a mindset perspective, it does feel different.

But here’s the part most people don’t actually run the math on.

The Payment Difference Isn’t What You Think

Let’s say you’re looking at a $500,000 home loan. At 6.1%, generally speaking, your principal and interest payment is roughly $3,030 per month. At 5.9%, it’s about $2,966 per month.

That’s a difference of only $64 a month.

Not $300.

Not $500.

Sixty dollars.

Let that sink in for just a moment.

a blue and green rectangular box with white textYes, over time that $64 a month can add up. But it’s far from the dramatic swing many buyers imagine when they say they’re “waiting for the 5s.”

The psychological impact of seeing a 5 in front of your rate can feel big. The financial impact? It might be something you don’t even notice when it’s all said and done.

Experts Aren’t Predicting a Big Drop

Another important piece to think about: most housing economists aren’t forecasting a long-term return to 5% territory anytime soon.

While rates will move up and down, likely hitting the high 5s here and there, the broader expectation is for mortgage rates to hover in the low 6% range this year, not stay in the 5’s or decline much more.

a graph with numbers and linesWhile it certainly could happen, the reality is, waiting for a deep drop may not deliver the payoff you’re hoping for, if you’re holding out

The Bigger Question to Ask

Instead of asking, “Did I miss the 5s?” A better question is: “Does today’s payment work for me?” 

If the monthly payment fits comfortably in your budget, and you’ve found a home that meets your needs, the difference between 6.1% and 5.9% likely isn’t the deciding factor. It might be one of them, but it shouldn’t be everything. 

And remember, mortgage rates aren’t permanent. If they drop meaningfully later, refinancing is always an option. But you can’t refinance a home you didn’t buy.

Waiting Might Feel Safe, But It Isn’t Always Strategic

It’s natural to want the best possible rate. Everyone does. But sometimes buyers overestimate how much a rate in the high 5s will change things in today’s market.

Don’t miss the fact that rates have already come down. A year ago, they were in the 7s. Now? They’re hovering in the low 6s. And for a lot of people, that percentage point difference that’s already here is the real game changer.

If you paused your plans when rates were higher, now may be the right time to re-run your numbers. Not because rates are “perfect.” But because the monthly payment math might work better than you think, even with rates in the low 6s. 

Before assuming you’ve missed your moment, take another look at the numbers.

You may find it never disappeared.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for that magic five number for rates, that strategy may not pay off as much as you’d expect.

Connect with an agent or lender so you can double check the math at your price point. You may realize payments are already within your range.

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Affordability

Renting vs. Buying: The Numbers Might Surprise You

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Renting can feel like the easier choice right now. There’s no big down payment. No dealing with surprise repairs. And no long-term commitment.

But then your rent goes up again. And again. And suddenly the thing that seemed flexible starts looking… expensive, especially considering you’re not building any equity. And once that happens, it’s easy to feel a little trapped in the cycle.

That’s because there’s so much chatter today about how buying a home isn’t affordable. But the truth is, the math may work out better than you’d expect based on what’s changed recently.

Buying Is More Affordable Than Renting in Many Areas 

In a lot of places today, owning a home actually costs less each month than renting a 3-bedroom home. And recent data from ATTOM shows that’s true in nearly 58% of counties across the U.S. (see chart below).

And that’s after you factor in things like insurance and typical maintenance costs. 

a blue and grey circle with white textIn other words, even though it may feel like a bit of a shock, the numbers show rent often stretches monthly budgets more than owning does. That’s thanks to slower home price growth, more homes for sale, and monthly mortgage payments starting to ease as rates come down.

Affordability Still Varies by Region

Now, even though nationally the balance has shifted, that doesn’t mean buying is more affordable in every market or for every renter.

While buying is more affordable than renting in nearly 58% of counties nationwide, that share looks different depending on your region (see graph below):

a graph of a market

The biggest improvement is happening in the Midwest and South. But if you’re living in the West, things could still feel tight.

The takeaway? How affordable buying is really depends on where you live. And the only way to know how this plays out where you live is to look at the numbers locally.

So, What’s Still Holding Buyers Back? 

Maybe you’re nodding along so far but thinking, “Okay, but I still can’t afford the upfront costs.” If that’s your reaction, you’re not the only one.

For many renters, the biggest hurdle isn’t the monthly payment alone. It’s the down payment, too.

But you’re not out of options. Here’s the part most people don’t hear enough about: there are thousands of down payment assistance programs available across the country, and many buyers qualify without realizing it.

And the average benefit? Roughly $18,000.

That kind of support can help cover part of your down payment or closing costs, which means you may not need to save nearly as much as you think to get started.

When you combine that with monthly payments that may work better than expected, especially as rates continue to ease and prices cool, buying may feel far more realistic than it looks at first glance.

Bottom Line

The point isn’t that everyone should rush out and buy a home tomorrow.

It’s that renting isn’t always the more affordable option people assume it is – and buying may be more realistic than it feels once you look at the full picture.

If you’re renting and feeling stuck in the “someday” loop, it might be worth a simple conversation with a local real estate agent or lender. Just a chance to see what’s possible and whether it makes sense for you.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.