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For Buyers

Real Estate: It’s Still a Lack of Supply, Not a Lack of Demand

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One of the major questions real estate experts are asking today is whether prospective homebuyers still believe purchasing a home makes sense. Some claim rapidly rising home prices are impacting demand and, by extension, leading to the recent slowdown in sales activity.

However, demand isn’t the real issue. Instead, it’s the lack of supply (homes available for sale). An article from the Wall Street Journal shows this is true for new home construction:

Home builders have sold more homes than they can build. Now they are limiting their sales in an effort to catch up.”

The article quotes David Auld, CEO of D.R. Horton Inc. (the largest homebuilder by volume in the United States since 2002), explaining how they don’t have enough homes for the number of buyers coming into their models:

“Through our history, to have somebody walk into our models and to tell them, ‘We don’t have a house for you to buy today’, is something that is foreign to us.”

Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for realtor.com, also explains that, in the existing home sale market, the slowdown in sales was a supply challenge, not a lack of demand. Responding to a recent uptick in listings coming to market, she notes:

“. . . if these changing inventory dynamics continue, we could see a wave of real estate activity heading into the latter part of the year.”

Again, the buyers are there. We just need houses to sell to them.

If the slowdown in sales was the result of demand waning, we would start to see home prices beginning to moderate – but this isn’t the case. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist for First American, explains:

“There’s a lot of conversation around rising prices and falling quantity in the housing market, and there’s this concept, or this idea, that it’s a demand-side problem . . . . But, if demand were falling dramatically, we would actually see less price pressure, less home price growth.”

Instead, we’re seeing price appreciation accelerate throughout this year, as evidenced by the year-over-year percentage increases reported by CoreLogic:

  • January: 10%
  • February: 10.4%
  • March: 11.3%
  • April: 13%
  • May: 15.4%
  • June: 17.2%

(July numbers are not yet available)

There’s a shortage of listings, not buyers, and there are three very good reasons for purchasers to still be interested in buying a home this year.

1. Affordability isn’t the challenge some are claiming it to be.

Though home prices have risen dramatically over the last 18 months, mortgage rates remain near historic lows. Because of these near-record rates, monthly mortgage payments are affordable for most buyers.

While homes are less affordable than they were last year, when we adjust for inflation, we can see they’re also more affordable than they were in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and much of the 2000s.

2. Owning is a better long-term decision than renting.

A recent study shows renting a home takes up a higher percentage of a household’s income than owning one. According to the analysis, here’s the percentage of income homebuyers and renters should expect to pay now versus at the end of the year.Real Estate: It’s Still a Lack of Supply, Not a Lack of Demand | Simplifying The MarketWhile the principal and interest of a monthly mortgage payment remain the same over the lifetime of the loan, rents increase almost every year.

3. Owners build their wealth. Renters build their landlord’s wealth.

Whether you’re a homeowner or an investor, real estate builds wealth through growing equity year-over-year. If you own, your household is gaining the benefit of that wealth accumulation. Fleming says:

The major financial advantage of homeownership is the accumulation of equity in the form of house price appreciation . . . . We have to take into account the fact that the shelter that you’re owning is an equity-generating or wealth-generating asset.”

Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, elaborates in a recent article:

“. . . once the home is purchased, appreciation helps build equity in the home, and becomes a benefit rather than a cost. When accounting for the appreciation benefit in our rent versus own analysis, it was cheaper to own in every one of the top 50 markets, including the two most expensive rental markets, San Francisco and San Jose, Calif.”

Today, that equity buildup is substantial. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports:

“The median sales price of single-family existing homes rose in 99% of measured metro areas in the second quarter of 2021 compared to one year ago, with double-digit price gains in 94% of markets.”

In 94% of markets, there was a greater than 10% increase in median price. That means if you bought a $400,000 home in one of those markets, your net worth increased by at least $40,000. If you rented, the landlord was the recipient of the wealth increase.

Bottom Line

For many reasons, housing demand is still extremely strong. What we need is more supply (house listings) to meet that demand.

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For Buyers

Inventory Is Making a Comeback in 2026

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After a long stretch where buyers were competing for too few homes, inventory has made a comeback over the past year. And depending on where you live, that’s opening up your options in a meaningful way. 

According to Realtor.com, the number of homes available for sale in January was the highest it’s been since 2020. Here’s why that’s such a big deal. Getting back to pre-pandemic levels signals a slow and steady return to what’s typical:

a graph with numbers and a blue backgroundNow, it’s worth noting, nationally we’re not there yet – and having more inventory improving won’t suddenly “fix” the market. But the growth we’ve seen lately still changes how competitive the market feels.

  • When there are more homes for sale, buyers gain time, options, and leverage.
  • When there aren’t, the pressure ramps up quickly.

In the years since 2020, there weren’t enough homes for sale, and that made the market feel different. Rushed. Stressful. Intimidating.

But now it’s finally getting better.

A Growing Portion of the Country Is Getting Back to Normal

Depending on where you live, inventory growth is going to vary. Some places are bouncing back faster than others. According to Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub, in January 2025, just a little over one year ago, only 41 of the 200 largest metros were back to normal inventory-wise. 

But around the end of year, almost half (90) of the largest 200 metro areas were back at or above typical levels. That’s a big improvement in roughly a year. And it’s not done yet. 

Inventory Is Expected To Keep Growing 

Looking ahead, forecasts suggest the number of homes for sale could rise another 10% this year, which means even more markets should join the list of places where supply has rebounded.

Here’s a graph that shows what an extra 10% would do for the market this year. You can see that projected growth (shown in the dotted line) hits inventory levels seen in 2017-2019 by roughly this fall (the gray lines). That means we may reach normal by end of year, nationally:

a graph of different colored lines

And that changes your home search in a good way. As Hannah Jones, Senior Economic Research Analyst at Realtor.com, puts it:

“. . . housing market conditions are gradually rebalancing after several years of extreme seller advantage. Buyers are beginning to see more options and modest negotiating power as inventory improves . . .

In other words, the market is starting to work with buyers again — not against them.

Bottom Line

Inventory isn’t fully back to normal everywhere. But it’s moving in the right direction. And, in some areas, it’s already there.

If you’ve been waiting for a moment when you have options and a little breathing room, this is the strongest setup buyers have seen in a long time.

If you want to know what’s happening in your local market, talk to an agent.

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Buying Tips

Top 3 Reasons To Buy a Home Before Spring

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If you’re planning to buy a home this year, you may be focused on the spring market. And hoping that when spring does hit, you’ll see:

  • Mortgage rates drop a little more.
  • More homes hit the market.

But here’s what most buyers don’t realize. Buying just a few weeks earlier could mean paying less, dealing with less stress, and feeling less rushed.

Here are three reasons why accelerating your timeline over the next few weeks could actually be a better play.

1. Holding Out for Lower Rates May Pay Off 

A lot of buyers are hoping mortgage rates will fall even further. But that’s not the best strategy. Here’s why. Experts are pretty aligned on this: rates are expected to stay roughly where they are.

Forecasts throughout the industry all point to the same thing: rates are projected to be in the low-6% range this year (see graph below)

a graph of a graph showing the rate of a mortgageThat’s not a bad thing, especially if you consider how much rates have already come down. Over the past 12 months, they’ve dropped roughly a full percentage point. And for many buyers, that means affordability has already improved more than they may realize. 

So why wait a few more weeks just for more buyers to jump in and act as your competition? You already have a window right now. As Chen Zhao, Head of Economics Research at Redfin, explains:

“House hunters should know that this may be near the lowest mortgage rates fall for the foreseeable future.”

2. Spring Means More Competition + More Stress

Speaking of competition, the spring market is popular for a reason, but with popularity comes pressure. With more buyers active at that time of year, you’ll have to move faster once you find a home you like. And no one likes feeling rushed.

But buy now and you have more time to browse. Fewer people are looking, so homes sit longer.

You can see this play out in the data from Realtor.com (see graph below). In winter months, it takes an average of about 70 days for a home to sell. In spring? That drops to about 50 days. That’s a 20-day swing – and that pace is going to be more stressful.

Homes sell faster in the spring, and slower in the winter. And that can be a worthwhile perk for buyers who want to get ahead before their decisions start to feel rushed.

3. Prices Tend To Rise When Competition Heats Up

And here’s something most buyers forget to factor in. Prices usually respond to demand. So, when demand is higher, prices are too. Bankrate explains:

“Spring and early summer are the busiest and most competitive time of year for the real estate market . . . home prices tend to be steeper to reflect the increased demand.” 

In fact, data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows that in 2025, buyers who purchased in the beginning of the year saved roughly $30,000–$35,000 compared to those who bought when prices peaked in the spring or early summer.

a graph with a green lineAnd let’s be honest, for a lot of buyers today, every little bit of savings helps. That’s why buying just a few weeks earlier, before prices ramp up, will be better for you and your wallet.

Bottom Line

Buying a few weeks before spring isn’t about rushing. It’s about choosing to be ahead of the curve and knowing you want more leverage, less stress, and meaningful savings.

If you’re ready and able to buy now and want to get the ball rolling, connect with a local agent.

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Affordability

It’s Getting More Affordable To Buy a Home

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There’s finally a little good news for anyone who’s been priced out or sitting on the sidelines.

Buying a home is getting more affordable.

Monthly payments have started to come down, and the squeeze buyers have been feeling for the past few years is slowly loosening. Now, that doesn’t mean everyone can suddenly afford a home, but with how tough the market’s been, the improvement we’re seeing matters.

Affordability Is Finally Moving in the Right Direction

One of the best ways to see this shift is by looking at how much of a household’s income it takes to buy a home.

According to Zillow, housing is typically considered affordable when it takes 30% or less of your monthly income to cover your expenses. That includes your mortgage payment, taxes, insurance, and basic maintenance.

For the past few years, the math was well above that threshold, and it made buying a home unachievable for many. But now, we’re slowly moving back toward a balance. Zillow research shows it’s taking less of a typical household’s income to buy a home than it did just a few years ago (see graph below):

a graph with green line and white textNow, we’re not all the way back to Zillow’s threshold of 30% of your income or less, so affordability is still tight. But things are trending in the right direction.

Why Affordability Is Improving

So, what’s driving the change? A lot of the focus lately has been on mortgage rates and how much they’ve come down over the course of the past year. But that’s not the only factor working in favor of buyers right now. Here are three trends benefiting buyers today: 

1. Mortgage rates have eased. Rates are near their lowest level in more than three years, which helps lower monthly payments (see graph below):

a graph of a low interest rate

2. Home price growth has cooled. Prices aren’t falling nationally, but they’re growing much more slowly than they were a few years ago. That means buyers today aren’t facing the same sharp jumps in purchase prices, which helps keep monthly payments more manageable – and buying more predictable. 

3. Wages are growing faster than home prices. This one matters a lot. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explains:

When income growth exceeds house price growth, house-buying power improves—even if mortgage rates don’t decline meaningfully.”

None of this makes buying cheap, but it does explain why the math is starting to work a little better for buyers than it did even a just a year ago. Put simply, the forces that hurt affordability over the past few years are finally easing. Fleming again explains it well:

Affordability remains challenging, but for the first time in several years, the underlying forces are finally aligned toward gradual improvement. Mortgage rates may drift down only slowly, but income growth exceeding house price appreciation will provide a boost to house-buying power — even in a higher-rate world. Affordability won’t snap back overnight, but like a ship finally catching a steady tailwind, it’s now sailing in the right direction.

These three factors combined are why economists expect affordability to keep improving in 2026.

Where Homes Are Becoming Affordable First

But how much is affordability really going to improve? In some places, noticeably. Zillow says some markets are expected to fall back under their affordability threshold (30% of your income or less) by the end of the year:

a graph of the average homeowners

But that doesn’t mean you have to be in one of these markets or wait until year-end to buy. Other places are already seeing big improvements in affordability. So, talk to a local agent about what’s happening in your market. You may find you’re able to buy after all.

Bottom Line

For the first time in quite a whole, affordability is easing. That’s a meaningful shift.

And because this improvement isn’t happening everywhere at the same speed, understanding what’s changing locally is what really makes a difference. If you want to see how these trends show up in your area, talk with a local real estate agent.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.