Connect with us

Economy

Two Reasons Why the Housing Market Won’t Crash

Published

on

You may have heard chatter recently about the economy and talk about a possible recession. It’s no surprise that kind of noise gets some people worried about a housing market crash. Maybe you’re one of them. But here’s the good news – there’s no need to panic. The housing market is not set up for a crash right now.

Real estate journalist Michele Lerner says:

“A housing market crash happens when home values plummet due to a lack of demand for homes or an oversupply.”

With that definition in mind, here are two reasons why this just isn’t on the horizon.

1. Demand for Homes Is Higher than Supply

One of the biggest reasons the housing market crashed back in 2008 was an oversupply of homes. Today, though, it’s a very different story.

It’s a general rule of thumb that a market where supply and demand are balanced has a six-month supply of homes. A higher number means supply outpaces demand, and a lower number means demand outpaces supply. The graph below uses data from NAR to put today’s situation into context:

a graph of a company's supplyThe graph compares housing supply during three different periods of time. The red bar shows there were 13 months of supply before the 2008 crisis, which was far too much. The gray bar shows a balanced market with six months of supply, for context. And the blue bar shows there are only 4.2 months of supply today.

Put simply, there are more people who want to buy homes than there are homes available to buy right now. So, demand is greater than supply. When that happens, home prices stay steady or rise – the opposite of a housing market crash.

It’s important to note that inventory levels differ from market to market. Some areas may be more balanced, while a few could have a slight oversupply, which can impact prices locally. However, most markets continue to experience a shortage of homes.

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

We simply don’t have enough inventory. Will some markets see a price decline? Yes. [But] with the supply not being there, the repeat of a 30 percent price decline is highly, highly unlikely.”

2. Unemployment Is Still Low

When people are unemployed, they’re more likely to have trouble making their mortgage payments and may be forced to sell or face foreclosure. That was a big problem during the 2008 financial crisis. Today, the employment situation is much more stable (see graph below):

a graph of employmentAgain, this graph shows three different periods of time, but this one is the unemployment rate. The red bar represents the 2008 financial crisis when unemployment was very high at 8.3%. The gray bar shows the 75-year average of 5.7%. And the blue bar shows the unemployment rate today, and it’s much lower at just 4.1%.

Right now, people are working, earning an income, and making their mortgage payments. That’s one reason why the wave of foreclosures that happened in 2008 isn’t going to happen again this time. Plus, since so many people are employed right now, many are actually in a position to buy a home, and this demand keeps upward pressure on prices.

Today’s Housing Market Is Stronger than in 2008

While it’s understandable to be concerned when you hear talk of a recession and economic uncertainty, but know this: the housing market is in a much better place than it was in 2008. According to Rick Sharga, Founder and CEO at CJ Patrick Company:

“Literally everything is different about today’s housing market dynamics than the conditions that led to the housing crisis.”

Demand for homes still outpaces supply, and unemployment remains low. And these are two key factors that will help prevent the housing market from crashing any time soon.

Bottom Line

The housing market is in a much better place than it was in 2008, but it’s important to remember that real estate is very local.

So, it’s always a good idea to stay informed about your specific market. If you have any questions or want to discuss how these factors are playing out in your area, reach out to a local real estate agent.

Continue Reading
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Economy

Why Buying Real Estate Is Still the Best Long-Term Investment

Published

on

Lately, it feels like every headline about the housing market comes with a side of doubt. Are prices going up or down? Are we headed for a crash? Will rates ever come down? And all the media noise may leave you wondering: does it really make sense to buy a home right now?

But here’s one thing that doesn’t get enough airtime. Real estate has always been about the long game. And when you look at the big picture, not just the latest clickbait headlines, it’s easy to see why so many people say it’s still the best investment you can make – even now.

According to the just-released annual report from Gallup, real estate has been voted the best long-term investment for the 12th year in a row. That’s over a decade of beating out stocks, gold, and bonds as America’s top pick.

a graph of different colored squaresAnd this isn’t new. Real estate usually claims the #1 title. But here’s what’s really interesting. This year’s results came in just after a rocky April for the stock and bond markets. It shows that, even as other investments had wild swings, real estate has held its ground. That’s likely because it gains value in a steadier, more predictable way. As Gallup explains:

“Amid volatility in the stock and bond markets in April, Americans’ preference for stocks as the best long-term investment has declined. Gold has gained in appeal, while real estate remains the top choice for the 12th consecutive year.”

That says a lot. Even though things may feel a bit uncertain in today’s economy, real estate can still be a powerful investment.

Yes, home values are rising at a more moderate pace right now. And sure, in some markets, prices may be flat in the year ahead or even dip a little – but that’s just the short-term view. Don’t let that cloud the bigger picture.

Real estate has a long track record of gaining value over time. That’s the kind of growth you can count on, especially if you plan to live in that home for a long time.

That’s part of why Americans continue to buy-in to homeownership – even when the headlines may sound a little uncertain. As Sam Williamson, Senior Economist at First American, says:

“A home is more than just a place to live—it’s often a family’s most valuable financial asset and a cornerstone to building long-term wealth.”

Bottom Line

Real estate isn’t about overnight wins. It’s about long-term gains. So, don’t let the uncertainty in a shifting market make you think it’s a bad time to buy. 

If you’re feeling unsure, just remember: Americans have consistently said real estate is the best long-term investment you can make. And if you want more information about why so many people think homeownership is worth it, reach out to a local real estate agent.

Continue Reading

Economy

Real Estate Is Voted the Best Long-Term Investment 12 Years in a Row

Published

on

a screenshot of a cell phone

Some Highlights

  • In a recent poll from Gallup, real estate has once again been voted the best long-term investment. And it’s claimed that top spot for 12 straight years now.
  • That’s because homeownership is one of the top ways to build your wealth, even with home price growth moderating and ongoing economic uncertainty.
  • If you’ve been trying to decide if it makes sense to buy a home today, connect with an agent to talk about the programs that can help you become a homeowner.

Continue Reading

Economy

Stocks May Be Volatile, but Home Values Aren’t

Published

on

With all the uncertainty in the economy, the stock market has been bouncing around more than usual. And if you’ve been watching your 401(k) or investments lately, chances are you’ve felt that pit in your stomach. One day it’s up. The next day, it’s not. And that may make you feel a little worried about your finances.

But here’s the thing you need to remember if you’re a homeowner. According to Investopedia:

Traditionally, stocks have been far more volatile than real estate. That’s not to say that real estate prices aren’t ever volatile—the years around the 2007 to 2008 financial crisis are just one memorable example—but stocks are more prone to large value swings.”

While your stocks or 401(k) might see a lot of highs and lows, home values are much less volatile.

A Drop in the Stock Market Doesn’t Mean a Crash in Home Prices

Take a look at the graph below. It shows what happened to home prices (the blue bars) during past stock market swings (the orange bars):

Even when the stock market falls more substantially, home prices don’t always come down with it.

Big home price drops like 2008 are the exception, not the rule. But everyone remembers that one. That stock market crash was caused by loose lending practices, subprime mortgages, and an oversupply of homes – a scenario that doesn’t exist today. That’s what made it so different.

In many cases before and after that time, home values actually went up while the stock market went down, showing that real estate is generally much more stable.

This graph shows how stock prices go up and down (the orange line), sometimes by more than 30% in a year. In contrast, home prices (the blue line) change more slowly (see graph below):

a graph of a price chartBasically, stock values jump around a lot more than home prices do. You can be way up one day and way down the next. Real estate, on the other hand, isn’t usually something that experiences such dramatic swings.

That’s why real estate can feel more stable and less risky than the stock market.

So, if you’re worried after the recent ups and downs in your stock portfolio, rest assured, your home isn’t likely to experience the same volatility.

And that’s why homeownership is generally viewed as a preferred long-term investment. Even if things feel uncertain right now, homeowners win in the long run.

Bottom Line

A lot of people are feeling nervous about their finances right now. But there’s one reason for you to feel more secure – your investment in something that’s stood the test of time: real estate.

Continue Reading

Subscribe for Weekly

Real Estate Insights

Advertisement

Trending

Copyright © 2020-2025 Landshark Mark, LLC. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, Landshark Mark, LLC and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.