If you’ve been following real estate news lately, you’ve probably seen headlines saying home prices are flat. And at first glance, that sounds simple enough. But here’s the thing. The reality isn’t quite that straightforward.

In most places, prices aren’t flat at all.

What the Data Really Shows

While we’ve definitely seen prices moderate from the rapid and unsustainable climb in 2020-2022, how much they’ve changed is going to be different everywhere.

If you look at data from ResiClub and Zillow for the 50 largest metros, this becomes very clear. The real story is split right down the middle. Half of the metros are still seeing prices inch higher. The other half? Prices are coming down slightly (see graph below).

The big takeaway here is “flat” doesn’t mean prices are holding steady everywhere. What the numbers actually show is how much price trends are going to vary depending on where you are.

One factor that’s driving the divide? Inventory. The Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) of Harvard University explains:

“ . . . price trends are beginning to diverge in markets across the country. Prices are declining in a growing number of markets where inventories have soared while they continue to climb in markets where for-sale inventories remain tight.”

When you average those very different trends together, you get a number that looks like it’s flat. But it doesn’t give you the real story and it’s not what most markets are feeling today. You deserve more than that.

And just in case you’re really focusing on the declines, remember those are primarily places where prices rose too much, too fast just a few years ago. Prices went up roughly 50% nationally over the past 5 years, and even more than that in some of the markets that are experiencing a bigger correction today. So, a modest drop in some local pockets still puts most of those homeowners ahead when it comes to the overall value of their home. And based on the fundamentals of today’s housing market, experts are not projecting a national decline going forward.

So, what’s actually important for you to know?

If You’re Buying…

You need to know what’s happening in your area because that’s going to influence everything from how quickly you need to make an offer to how much negotiating power you’ll have once you do.

• In a market where prices are still inching up, waiting around could mean paying more down the line.
• In a market where they’re easing, you may be able to ask for things like repairs or closing cost help to sweeten the deal.

The bottom line? Knowing your local trend puts you in the driver’s seat. 

If You’re Selling…

You’ll want to be aware of local trends, so you’ll know how to price your house and how much you can expect to negotiate.

• In a market where prices are still rising, you may not need to make many compromises to get your home sold.
• But if you’re in a market where prices are coming down, setting the right price from the start and being willing to negotiate becomes much more important.

The big action item for homeowners? Sellers need to have an agent’s local perspective if they want to avoid making the wrong call on pricing – and homes that are priced right are definitely selling.

The Real Story Is Local

The national averages can point to broad trends, and that’s helpful context. But sometimes you’re going to need a local point of view because what’s happening in your zip code could look different. As Anthony Smith, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, article puts it:

“While national prices continued to climb, local market conditions have become increasingly fragmented…This regional divide is expected to continue influencing price dynamics and sales activity as the fall season gets underway.”

That’s why the smartest move, whether you’re buying or selling, is to lean on a local agent who’s an expert on your market.

They’ll have the data and the experience to tell you whether prices in your area are holding steady, moving up, or softening a bit – and how that could impact your move.

Bottom Line

Headlines calling home prices flat may be grabbing attention, but they’re not giving you the full picture.

Has anyone taken the time to walk you through what’s happening in your market?

If you want the real story about what prices are doing in your area, connect with a local agent.

A recent survey from Bank of America asked would-be homebuyers what would help them feel better about making a move, and it’s no surprise the answers have a clear theme. They want affordability to improve, specifically prices and rates (see below):

Here’s the good news. While the broader economy may still feel uncertain, there are signs the housing market is showing some changes in both of those areas. Let’s break it down so you know what you’re working with.

Prices Are Moderating

Over the past few years, home prices climbed fast, sometimes so fast it left many buyers feeling shut out. But today, that pace has slowed down. For comparison, from 2020 to 2021, prices rose by 20% in a 12-month period. Now? Nationally, experts are projecting single-digit increases this year – a much more normal pace.

That’s a sharp contrast to the rapid growth we saw just a few short years ago. Just remember, price trends are going to vary by area. In some markets, prices will continue to rise while others will experience slight declines.

Prices aren’t crashing, but they are moderating. For buyers, the slowdown makes buying a home a bit less intimidating. It’s easier to plan your budget when home values are moving at a much slower pace.

Mortgage Rates Are Easing

At the same time, rates have come down from their recent highs. And that’s taken some pressure off would-be homebuyers. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says:

“Slower price growth coupled with a slight drop in mortgage rates will improve affordability and create a window for some buyers to get into the market.”

Even a small drop in mortgage rates can mean a big difference in what you pay each month in your future mortgage payment. Just remember, while rates have come down a bit lately, they’re going to experience some volatility. So don’t get too caught up in the ups and downs.

The overall trend in the year ahead is that rates are expected to stay in the low to mid-6s – which is a lot better than where they were just a few short months ago. They may even drop further, depending on where the economy goes from here.

Why This Matters

Confidence in the economy may be low, but the housing market is showing signs of adjustment. Prices are moderating, and rates have come down from their highs.

For you, that may not solve affordability challenges altogether, but it does mean conditions look a little different than they did earlier this year. And those shifts could help you re-engage as we move into next year.

Bottom Line

Both of the top concerns for buyers are seeing some movement. Prices are moderating. Rates are easing. And both trends could stick around going into 2026.

If you’re considering a move, connect with a local real estate agent to walk you through what’s happening in your area – and what it means for your plans.

There’s a new divide in housing right now. In some states, buyers are gaining ground. In others, sellers still have the upper hand. It all depends on where you live. Curious what’s happening in your state?

These 3 maps show how the split is playing out across the country. In each one:

• Darker Shades of Blue = Buyer friendly
• Lighter Shades of Blue = Seller strong

Inventory Sets the Stage

While the number of homes for sale has improved pretty much across the board, how much growth we’ve seen can look dramatically different based on where you live. And that impacts who has the leverage today.

This map uses data from Realtor.com to break it down:

• The darker shades of blue show where inventory has risen more than in other areas of the country. Buyers here have more to choose from and should have an easier time finding a home and leveraging their negotiating power.
• The lighter shades of blue are where inventory is still low. Sellers are more likely to sell quickly and make fewer concessions.

Prices Follow Inventory

The second map tracks how home prices are shifting by state. Just like above, you can see the divide taking shape. Many of the same areas are darker blue. That’s because there’s such a close tie between inventory and prices. When inventory rises, prices moderate.

• The darker shades of blue are where prices are actually coming down slightly or flattening. Because, with more homes for sale, sellers may have to cut their price or throw in concessions to get a deal done. And that benefits budget-conscious buyers.
• The lighter shades of blue show areas where prices are still climbing because inventory is low. Sellers may still see buyers competing for homes, and that pushes prices higher.

Time on Market Tells the Same Story

Finally, here’s how quickly homes are selling state by state. See the colors? For the most part, they follow the same general pattern with a lot of the darker blues being in the lower half of the country. And here’s why.

Generally speaking, as inventory grows, homes don’t sell as quickly. That’s why some of the same areas that have more inventory, see homes take more time to sell. 

• The darker blues show where homes are staying on the market longer. That gives buyers more time and options, and signals sellers may need to adjust their expectations.
• The lighter blues are where homes are still moving quickly. Sellers there may feel more confident, and buyers may need to act fast.

This explains why some sellers in these darker blue states are feeling frustrated when their listings linger, while others in tighter markets (like the lighter blue states) are still seeing their homes sell quickly.

Why an Agent’s Local Expertise Is the Key To Unlocking Today’s Market

Basically, the housing market is experiencing a divide. And conditions are going to vary a lot based on where you live, where you’re moving, and if you’re buying or selling. While the state-level information helps, what really matters is what’s happening in your town and your neighborhood. And only a local agent truly has the information you need.

Bottom Line

Want to know what conditions look like in your neighborhood?

If you want to understand which side of the market you’re on, connect with a local agent. They’ll walk you through the numbers and what they mean for your next move.