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For Buyers

5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time

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With all of the volatility in the stock market and uncertainty about the Coronavirus (COVID-19), some are concerned we may be headed for another housing crash like the one we experienced from 2006-2008. The feeling is understandable. Ali Wolf, Director of Economic Research at the real estate consulting firm Meyers Research, addressed this point in a recent interview:

“With people having PTSD from the last time, they’re still afraid of buying at the wrong time.”

There are many reasons, however, indicating this real estate market is nothing like 2008. Here are five visuals to show the dramatic differences.

1. Mortgage standards are nothing like they were back then.

During the housing bubble, it was difficult NOT to get a mortgage. Today, it is tough to qualify. The Mortgage Bankers’ Association releases a Mortgage Credit Availability Index which is “a summary measure which indicates the availability of mortgage credit at a point in time.” The higher the index, the easier it is to get a mortgage. As shown below, during the housing bubble, the index skyrocketed. Currently, the index shows how getting a mortgage is even more difficult than it was before the bubble.5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | Simplifying The Market

2. Prices are not soaring out of control.

Below is a graph showing annual house appreciation over the past six years, compared to the six years leading up to the height of the housing bubble. Though price appreciation has been quite strong recently, it is nowhere near the rise in prices that preceded the crash.5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | Simplifying The MarketThere’s a stark difference between these two periods of time. Normal appreciation is 3.6%, so while current appreciation is higher than the historic norm, it’s certainly not accelerating beyond control as it did in the early 2000s.

3. We don’t have a surplus of homes on the market. We have a shortage.

The months’ supply of inventory needed to sustain a normal real estate market is approximately six months. Anything more than that is an overabundance and will causes prices to depreciate. Anything less than that is a shortage and will lead to continued appreciation. As the next graph shows, there were too many homes for sale in 2007, and that caused prices to tumble. Today, there’s a shortage of inventory which is causing an acceleration in home values.5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | Simplifying The Market

4. Houses became too expensive to buy.

The affordability formula has three components: the price of the home, the wages earned by the purchaser, and the mortgage rate available at the time. Fourteen years ago, prices were high, wages were low, and mortgage rates were over 6%. Today, prices are still high. Wages, however, have increased and the mortgage rate is about 3.5%. That means the average family pays less of their monthly income toward their mortgage payment than they did back then. Here’s a graph showing that difference:5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | Simplifying The Market

5. People are equity rich, not tapped out.

In the run-up to the housing bubble, homeowners were using their homes as a personal ATM machine. Many immediately withdrew their equity once it built up, and they learned their lesson in the process. Prices have risen nicely over the last few years, leading to over fifty percent of homes in the country having greater than 50% equity. But owners have not been tapping into it like the last time. Here is a table comparing the equity withdrawal over the last three years compared to 2005, 2006, and 2007. Homeowners have cashed out over $500 billion dollars less than before:5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | Simplifying The MarketDuring the crash, home values began to fall, and sellers found themselves in a negative equity situation (where the amount of the mortgage they owned was greater than the value of their home). Some decided to walk away from their homes, and that led to a rash of distressed property listings (foreclosures and short sales), which sold at huge discounts, thus lowering the value of other homes in the area. That can’t happen today.

Bottom Line

If you’re concerned we’re making the same mistakes that led to the housing crash, take a look at the charts and graphs above to help alleviate your fears.

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For Buyers

Inventory Is Making a Comeback in 2026

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After a long stretch where buyers were competing for too few homes, inventory has made a comeback over the past year. And depending on where you live, that’s opening up your options in a meaningful way. 

According to Realtor.com, the number of homes available for sale in January was the highest it’s been since 2020. Here’s why that’s such a big deal. Getting back to pre-pandemic levels signals a slow and steady return to what’s typical:

a graph with numbers and a blue backgroundNow, it’s worth noting, nationally we’re not there yet – and having more inventory improving won’t suddenly “fix” the market. But the growth we’ve seen lately still changes how competitive the market feels.

  • When there are more homes for sale, buyers gain time, options, and leverage.
  • When there aren’t, the pressure ramps up quickly.

In the years since 2020, there weren’t enough homes for sale, and that made the market feel different. Rushed. Stressful. Intimidating.

But now it’s finally getting better.

A Growing Portion of the Country Is Getting Back to Normal

Depending on where you live, inventory growth is going to vary. Some places are bouncing back faster than others. According to Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub, in January 2025, just a little over one year ago, only 41 of the 200 largest metros were back to normal inventory-wise. 

But around the end of year, almost half (90) of the largest 200 metro areas were back at or above typical levels. That’s a big improvement in roughly a year. And it’s not done yet. 

Inventory Is Expected To Keep Growing 

Looking ahead, forecasts suggest the number of homes for sale could rise another 10% this year, which means even more markets should join the list of places where supply has rebounded.

Here’s a graph that shows what an extra 10% would do for the market this year. You can see that projected growth (shown in the dotted line) hits inventory levels seen in 2017-2019 by roughly this fall (the gray lines). That means we may reach normal by end of year, nationally:

a graph of different colored lines

And that changes your home search in a good way. As Hannah Jones, Senior Economic Research Analyst at Realtor.com, puts it:

“. . . housing market conditions are gradually rebalancing after several years of extreme seller advantage. Buyers are beginning to see more options and modest negotiating power as inventory improves . . .

In other words, the market is starting to work with buyers again — not against them.

Bottom Line

Inventory isn’t fully back to normal everywhere. But it’s moving in the right direction. And, in some areas, it’s already there.

If you’ve been waiting for a moment when you have options and a little breathing room, this is the strongest setup buyers have seen in a long time.

If you want to know what’s happening in your local market, talk to an agent.

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Buying Tips

Top 3 Reasons To Buy a Home Before Spring

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If you’re planning to buy a home this year, you may be focused on the spring market. And hoping that when spring does hit, you’ll see:

  • Mortgage rates drop a little more.
  • More homes hit the market.

But here’s what most buyers don’t realize. Buying just a few weeks earlier could mean paying less, dealing with less stress, and feeling less rushed.

Here are three reasons why accelerating your timeline over the next few weeks could actually be a better play.

1. Holding Out for Lower Rates May Pay Off 

A lot of buyers are hoping mortgage rates will fall even further. But that’s not the best strategy. Here’s why. Experts are pretty aligned on this: rates are expected to stay roughly where they are.

Forecasts throughout the industry all point to the same thing: rates are projected to be in the low-6% range this year (see graph below)

a graph of a graph showing the rate of a mortgageThat’s not a bad thing, especially if you consider how much rates have already come down. Over the past 12 months, they’ve dropped roughly a full percentage point. And for many buyers, that means affordability has already improved more than they may realize. 

So why wait a few more weeks just for more buyers to jump in and act as your competition? You already have a window right now. As Chen Zhao, Head of Economics Research at Redfin, explains:

“House hunters should know that this may be near the lowest mortgage rates fall for the foreseeable future.”

2. Spring Means More Competition + More Stress

Speaking of competition, the spring market is popular for a reason, but with popularity comes pressure. With more buyers active at that time of year, you’ll have to move faster once you find a home you like. And no one likes feeling rushed.

But buy now and you have more time to browse. Fewer people are looking, so homes sit longer.

You can see this play out in the data from Realtor.com (see graph below). In winter months, it takes an average of about 70 days for a home to sell. In spring? That drops to about 50 days. That’s a 20-day swing – and that pace is going to be more stressful.

Homes sell faster in the spring, and slower in the winter. And that can be a worthwhile perk for buyers who want to get ahead before their decisions start to feel rushed.

3. Prices Tend To Rise When Competition Heats Up

And here’s something most buyers forget to factor in. Prices usually respond to demand. So, when demand is higher, prices are too. Bankrate explains:

“Spring and early summer are the busiest and most competitive time of year for the real estate market . . . home prices tend to be steeper to reflect the increased demand.” 

In fact, data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows that in 2025, buyers who purchased in the beginning of the year saved roughly $30,000–$35,000 compared to those who bought when prices peaked in the spring or early summer.

a graph with a green lineAnd let’s be honest, for a lot of buyers today, every little bit of savings helps. That’s why buying just a few weeks earlier, before prices ramp up, will be better for you and your wallet.

Bottom Line

Buying a few weeks before spring isn’t about rushing. It’s about choosing to be ahead of the curve and knowing you want more leverage, less stress, and meaningful savings.

If you’re ready and able to buy now and want to get the ball rolling, connect with a local agent.

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Affordability

It’s Getting More Affordable To Buy a Home

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There’s finally a little good news for anyone who’s been priced out or sitting on the sidelines.

Buying a home is getting more affordable.

Monthly payments have started to come down, and the squeeze buyers have been feeling for the past few years is slowly loosening. Now, that doesn’t mean everyone can suddenly afford a home, but with how tough the market’s been, the improvement we’re seeing matters.

Affordability Is Finally Moving in the Right Direction

One of the best ways to see this shift is by looking at how much of a household’s income it takes to buy a home.

According to Zillow, housing is typically considered affordable when it takes 30% or less of your monthly income to cover your expenses. That includes your mortgage payment, taxes, insurance, and basic maintenance.

For the past few years, the math was well above that threshold, and it made buying a home unachievable for many. But now, we’re slowly moving back toward a balance. Zillow research shows it’s taking less of a typical household’s income to buy a home than it did just a few years ago (see graph below):

a graph with green line and white textNow, we’re not all the way back to Zillow’s threshold of 30% of your income or less, so affordability is still tight. But things are trending in the right direction.

Why Affordability Is Improving

So, what’s driving the change? A lot of the focus lately has been on mortgage rates and how much they’ve come down over the course of the past year. But that’s not the only factor working in favor of buyers right now. Here are three trends benefiting buyers today: 

1. Mortgage rates have eased. Rates are near their lowest level in more than three years, which helps lower monthly payments (see graph below):

a graph of a low interest rate

2. Home price growth has cooled. Prices aren’t falling nationally, but they’re growing much more slowly than they were a few years ago. That means buyers today aren’t facing the same sharp jumps in purchase prices, which helps keep monthly payments more manageable – and buying more predictable. 

3. Wages are growing faster than home prices. This one matters a lot. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explains:

When income growth exceeds house price growth, house-buying power improves—even if mortgage rates don’t decline meaningfully.”

None of this makes buying cheap, but it does explain why the math is starting to work a little better for buyers than it did even a just a year ago. Put simply, the forces that hurt affordability over the past few years are finally easing. Fleming again explains it well:

Affordability remains challenging, but for the first time in several years, the underlying forces are finally aligned toward gradual improvement. Mortgage rates may drift down only slowly, but income growth exceeding house price appreciation will provide a boost to house-buying power — even in a higher-rate world. Affordability won’t snap back overnight, but like a ship finally catching a steady tailwind, it’s now sailing in the right direction.

These three factors combined are why economists expect affordability to keep improving in 2026.

Where Homes Are Becoming Affordable First

But how much is affordability really going to improve? In some places, noticeably. Zillow says some markets are expected to fall back under their affordability threshold (30% of your income or less) by the end of the year:

a graph of the average homeowners

But that doesn’t mean you have to be in one of these markets or wait until year-end to buy. Other places are already seeing big improvements in affordability. So, talk to a local agent about what’s happening in your market. You may find you’re able to buy after all.

Bottom Line

For the first time in quite a whole, affordability is easing. That’s a meaningful shift.

And because this improvement isn’t happening everywhere at the same speed, understanding what’s changing locally is what really makes a difference. If you want to see how these trends show up in your area, talk with a local real estate agent.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.