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5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time

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With all of the volatility in the stock market and uncertainty about the Coronavirus (COVID-19), some are concerned we may be headed for another housing crash like the one we experienced from 2006-2008. The feeling is understandable. Ali Wolf, Director of Economic Research at the real estate consulting firm Meyers Research, addressed this point in a recent interview:

“With people having PTSD from the last time, they’re still afraid of buying at the wrong time.”

There are many reasons, however, indicating this real estate market is nothing like 2008. Here are five visuals to show the dramatic differences.

1. Mortgage standards are nothing like they were back then.

During the housing bubble, it was difficult NOT to get a mortgage. Today, it is tough to qualify. The Mortgage Bankers’ Association releases a Mortgage Credit Availability Index which is “a summary measure which indicates the availability of mortgage credit at a point in time.” The higher the index, the easier it is to get a mortgage. As shown below, during the housing bubble, the index skyrocketed. Currently, the index shows how getting a mortgage is even more difficult than it was before the bubble.5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | Simplifying The Market

2. Prices are not soaring out of control.

Below is a graph showing annual house appreciation over the past six years, compared to the six years leading up to the height of the housing bubble. Though price appreciation has been quite strong recently, it is nowhere near the rise in prices that preceded the crash.5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | Simplifying The MarketThere’s a stark difference between these two periods of time. Normal appreciation is 3.6%, so while current appreciation is higher than the historic norm, it’s certainly not accelerating beyond control as it did in the early 2000s.

3. We don’t have a surplus of homes on the market. We have a shortage.

The months’ supply of inventory needed to sustain a normal real estate market is approximately six months. Anything more than that is an overabundance and will causes prices to depreciate. Anything less than that is a shortage and will lead to continued appreciation. As the next graph shows, there were too many homes for sale in 2007, and that caused prices to tumble. Today, there’s a shortage of inventory which is causing an acceleration in home values.5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | Simplifying The Market

4. Houses became too expensive to buy.

The affordability formula has three components: the price of the home, the wages earned by the purchaser, and the mortgage rate available at the time. Fourteen years ago, prices were high, wages were low, and mortgage rates were over 6%. Today, prices are still high. Wages, however, have increased and the mortgage rate is about 3.5%. That means the average family pays less of their monthly income toward their mortgage payment than they did back then. Here’s a graph showing that difference:5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | Simplifying The Market

5. People are equity rich, not tapped out.

In the run-up to the housing bubble, homeowners were using their homes as a personal ATM machine. Many immediately withdrew their equity once it built up, and they learned their lesson in the process. Prices have risen nicely over the last few years, leading to over fifty percent of homes in the country having greater than 50% equity. But owners have not been tapping into it like the last time. Here is a table comparing the equity withdrawal over the last three years compared to 2005, 2006, and 2007. Homeowners have cashed out over $500 billion dollars less than before:5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | Simplifying The MarketDuring the crash, home values began to fall, and sellers found themselves in a negative equity situation (where the amount of the mortgage they owned was greater than the value of their home). Some decided to walk away from their homes, and that led to a rash of distressed property listings (foreclosures and short sales), which sold at huge discounts, thus lowering the value of other homes in the area. That can’t happen today.

Bottom Line

If you’re concerned we’re making the same mistakes that led to the housing crash, take a look at the charts and graphs above to help alleviate your fears.

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For Buyers

Expert Forecasts Point to Affordability Improving in 2026

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Wondering what to expect from the housing market in 2026? You’re not the only one. For the past few years, affordability has been the biggest barrier standing between most people and their next move. And a lot of buyers and sellers have been holding their breath waiting for things to get better. The good news? It’s finally happening.

In 2025, affordability was the best it’s been in 3 years. And experts agree the momentum will keep going in 2026. And that’s based on their analysis of the key factors shaping the housing market in the year ahead: mortgage rates, inventory, and home prices.

Lower Mortgage Rates Are Already Here 

Mortgage rates have already come down from their peak. By some counts, they dropped by almost a full percentage point over the course of the last year. And that’s a big deal, even if it doesn’t sound like it. But how low will they go? And should you wait for them to come down more? Here’s your answer. 

Forecasts suggest they’ll stay pretty much where they are now and hover in the low 6% range throughout 2026 (see graph below):

a graph with numbers and linesWhere they go from here really depends on what happens with the economy, the job market, and any changes in monetary policy the Fed makes in the year ahead. The important thing is, they’re already lower than they were just one year ago and that’s ideal if you’re planning a 2026 move.

  • For buyers: A lower rate reduces monthly payments and increases buying power. And, that combo helps more people qualify for homes that previously felt just out of reach.
  • For sellers: It may be time to accept that rates in the 6s are the new normal. And if you need to move, it’s doable, especially with your equity.

Even More Options Are on the Way

In 2025, the number of homes for sale improved by about 15%. As inventory rose, buyers regained things they hadn’t had in years: options, time to consider those options, and negotiating leverage. That helped restore more balance to the housing market.

Not to mention, the inventory gains are a big piece of what’s helped price growth slow down – which in turn improves affordability.

While the inventory gains this year aren’t expected to be as steep, experts at Realtor.com say the supply of homes for sale should grow by another 8.9% this year.

  • For buyers: That means even more choice and more negotiating power.
  • For sellers: Pricing your house right will be essential to draw in buyers.

Home Price Growth Is Slowing to a More Sustainable Pace

With more homes for sale, there isn’t as much upward pressure on prices right now. And we’ve seen that shake out over the past year. Even so, the overwhelming majority of experts say, nationally, prices will continue rising in the year ahead – just at a slower pace. On average, they say prices will rise by 1.6% in 2026 (see graph below):

a graph of increasing pricesAnd that’s reassuring if you’ve been fed content on social media saying prices are going to come crashing down. But here’s what you need to remember most about this. It’s going to vary a lot by area.

So, lean on a local agent for the latest on what’s happening where you are. Some markets will see prices rise more than this. Others may see prices come down slightly. It really all depends on conditions in your local market

But overall, prices will continue to rise at the national level. And that’s good for the market as a whole. As Realtor.com explains:

For homebuyers and sellers, the shift signals a more balanced market—one where price growth steadies, rate relief offers breathing room, and negotiating power tilts subtly toward buyers.”

  • For buyers: Expect more moderate price growth, not the sudden and intense spikes just a few short years ago. That gives you fewer surprises and more predictability, which makes budgeting a whole lot easier.
  • For sellers: This slower price growth restores balance without putting your equity at risk. And that’s a win. 

More Homes Will Sell 

All of this adds up to a better affordability equation in 2026. And that’s exactly why experts are saying we should see more homes sell (and more people buy) this year.

a graph of a graph showing the sales of a companyAs Mischa Fisher, Chief Economist at Zillow, says:

“Buyers are benefiting from more inventory and improved affordability, while sellers are seeing price stability and more consistent demand. Each group should have a bit more breathing room in 2026.”

The bottom line is, more people are finally going to be able to make their move this year. So, the question is: will you be one of them? The market is giving you an opportunity you haven’t had in a while. Maybe it’s time to take advantage of it.

Bottom Line

Affordability won’t change suddenly overnight. But, with several key trends working together, it should slowly and steadily improve in the months ahead.

That’s exactly why, in 2026, you should see a market with more balance, more predictability, and more breathing room than you’ve had in years.

Want more information about the opportunities unlocking in your local market? Connect with a real estate agent today.

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Buying Tips

Why Pre-Approval Should Be Your First Step – Not an Afterthought

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Finding the right home feels exciting – but being pre-approved for your loan is what makes it possible. Whether you’re planning to buy soon or still just thinking about it, getting pre-approved is one of the best moves you can make. Here’s why.

1. What Is Pre-Approval, Really?

Pre-approval is much more than a guess. It means a lender has reviewed your finances (things like your income, assets, credit score, debts, and savings) and told you how much they’re willing to let you borrow for your loan.

It’s basically a reality check for your home search, so you can make sure it aligns with your budget and shop confidently when you’re ready to go.

2. Why It’s a Power Move (Especially Right Now)

The housing market’s been shifting lately with mortgage rates moving, prices moderating, and inventory rising. So, knowing what you’re working with in the current market is a big reason why pre-approval matters. Here’s what it gives you:

  • Clarity: You’ll know what you can afford before you fall in love with a house that’s potentially out of reach.
  • Confidence: Sellers will take your offer seriously when they see you’re pre-approved because you’re not a risky buyer.
  • Control: If rates come down and you want to jump on the moment, you’re already a step ahead with your plan.

As Experian explains:

“. . . you’ll want to make sure you receive your preapproval letter before you start looking at homes so you can submit a strong offer as soon as you find what you want. The process can take anywhere from a day to a few weeks, so if you procrastinate, you may lose out to a competing offer.”

And once you find a home you want to put an offer on, pre-approval has another big perk. It not only makes your offer stronger, it shows sellers you’ve already undergone a credit and financial check. As Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, says:

“Preapproval carries more weight because it means lenders have actually done more than a cursory review of your credit and your finances, but have instead reviewed your pay stubs, tax returns and bank statements. A preapproval means you’ve cleared the hurdles necessary to be approved for a mortgage up to a certain dollar amount.”

Translation: Pre-approval helps you make stronger, more informed decisions – and it helps you avoid missing out on a home or getting stuck on the sidelines when the right one hits the market. Because the reality is, competition might be lower these days, but desirable homes (especially the ones that are priced well) still go quickly.

3. Don’t Wait Until You’re “Ready”

Think of it this way: pre-approval doesn’t mean you’re buying a house tomorrow. It just means you’ll be ready when the time comes. And most pre-approvals are good for 60–90 days and can be refreshed easily if your plans change.

So, here’s a good place to start. Ask yourself this question: “If the perfect home came along today, would you be ready to make an offer?”

If your answer is “not quite,” then pre-approval is your next step.

Bottom Line

Pre-approval doesn’t box you in. It opens doors.

In today’s market, buyers who win aren’t the ones who wait. They’re the ones who plan. So, if you’re even thinking about buying in the next few months, get ahead of the game by connecting with your agent and a trusted lender.

They’ll help you understand what how the process works and walk you through every step along the way, so when the right home pops up, you’re ready.

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Buying Tips

More Buyers Are Planning To Move in 2026. Here’s How To Get Ready.

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Momentum is quietly building in the housing market. New data from NerdWallet shows more Americans are starting to think about buying a home again. Last year, 15% of respondents said they planned to buy a home in the next 12 months. This year, that number rose to 17%.

That 2% increase might not sound like a big jump, but in a market where buyer demand has been cooling for the past few years, it’s a sign things are starting to shift. More people are feeling ready (or at least closer to ready) to take the leap and buy a home in 2026.

And if you’re in that camp and buying a home is on your goal sheet this year, this is your nudge to connect with a local agent and a trusted lender to start laying the groundwork now.

Planning To Move in Early 2026? Start with These 4 Steps

If you’re eager to get the ball rolling right away, here’s what to tackle first:

  1. Get pre-approved. A pre-approval gives you a real understanding of your buying power and what your payment could be at today’s rates. But keep in mind, Experian says most pre-approvals are only good for 30-90 days, so this step makes the most sense as you’re ready to get serious.
  2. Run the numbers. Look closely at all your expenses to come up with your budget. Consider what you’re spending on other bills and what your monthly mortgage payment would be once you buy. That way you go in with open eyes and you don’t stretch too far.
  3. Define your non-negotiables. Once you know the numbers work, figure out your must-haves. This includes your desired location, commute, layout, school district, lifestyle needs, etc. Getting clear on these now makes decisions easier once you start looking at homes.
  4. Choose your agent early. Look at reviews online and talk to multiple agents to find one you trust that you also click with. The right agent does more than show homes. They help you understand pricing, competition, timing, and strategy before you ever write an offer.

Thinking about Buying Later in the Year? This Is Still Your Window To Prepare

Even if buying feels like a late-2026 goal, this moment still matters. The buyers who feel the most confident later are usually the ones who quietly prepared earlier.

That doesn’t mean big financial commitments or major lifestyle changes. It just means setting yourself up so you’re ready when the timing is right. Here are a few low-stress ways to do that:

  1. Work on your credit. While you don’t need to have perfect credit to buy a home, your score can have an impact on your loan terms and even your mortgage rate. So, working to bring up your score has its perks. Paying down debt now and making payments on time can help bring your score up.
  2. Automate your savings. If you have to remember to transfer money into your homebuying savings manually, you may forget to do it. So, you may want to set up automatic transfers to drive consistency and remove the temptation to spend the money elsewhere.
  3. Lean into your side hustles: Do you have a gig you do (or have done before) to net some extra cash? Taking on part-time work, freelance jobs, or picking up a side hustle can help give your savings a boost.
  4. Put any unexpected cash to good use: If you get any sudden windfalls, like a tax refund, bonus, inheritance, or cash gift from family, put it toward your house fund. You’ll thank yourself later.

The common thread here? The right prep work makes a difference.

Bottom Line

If buying a home in 2026 is on your radar, start the conversation now. Not to rush a decision, but to give yourself time and clarity.

Because every move (whether it’s next year or later) is smoother when it starts with a plan. And if you need help coming up with one that works, connect with a trusted agent and lender.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.