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5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time

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With all of the volatility in the stock market and uncertainty about the Coronavirus (COVID-19), some are concerned we may be headed for another housing crash like the one we experienced from 2006-2008. The feeling is understandable. Ali Wolf, Director of Economic Research at the real estate consulting firm Meyers Research, addressed this point in a recent interview:

“With people having PTSD from the last time, they’re still afraid of buying at the wrong time.”

There are many reasons, however, indicating this real estate market is nothing like 2008. Here are five visuals to show the dramatic differences.

1. Mortgage standards are nothing like they were back then.

During the housing bubble, it was difficult NOT to get a mortgage. Today, it is tough to qualify. The Mortgage Bankers’ Association releases a Mortgage Credit Availability Index which is “a summary measure which indicates the availability of mortgage credit at a point in time.” The higher the index, the easier it is to get a mortgage. As shown below, during the housing bubble, the index skyrocketed. Currently, the index shows how getting a mortgage is even more difficult than it was before the bubble.5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | Simplifying The Market

2. Prices are not soaring out of control.

Below is a graph showing annual house appreciation over the past six years, compared to the six years leading up to the height of the housing bubble. Though price appreciation has been quite strong recently, it is nowhere near the rise in prices that preceded the crash.5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | Simplifying The MarketThere’s a stark difference between these two periods of time. Normal appreciation is 3.6%, so while current appreciation is higher than the historic norm, it’s certainly not accelerating beyond control as it did in the early 2000s.

3. We don’t have a surplus of homes on the market. We have a shortage.

The months’ supply of inventory needed to sustain a normal real estate market is approximately six months. Anything more than that is an overabundance and will causes prices to depreciate. Anything less than that is a shortage and will lead to continued appreciation. As the next graph shows, there were too many homes for sale in 2007, and that caused prices to tumble. Today, there’s a shortage of inventory which is causing an acceleration in home values.5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | Simplifying The Market

4. Houses became too expensive to buy.

The affordability formula has three components: the price of the home, the wages earned by the purchaser, and the mortgage rate available at the time. Fourteen years ago, prices were high, wages were low, and mortgage rates were over 6%. Today, prices are still high. Wages, however, have increased and the mortgage rate is about 3.5%. That means the average family pays less of their monthly income toward their mortgage payment than they did back then. Here’s a graph showing that difference:5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | Simplifying The Market

5. People are equity rich, not tapped out.

In the run-up to the housing bubble, homeowners were using their homes as a personal ATM machine. Many immediately withdrew their equity once it built up, and they learned their lesson in the process. Prices have risen nicely over the last few years, leading to over fifty percent of homes in the country having greater than 50% equity. But owners have not been tapping into it like the last time. Here is a table comparing the equity withdrawal over the last three years compared to 2005, 2006, and 2007. Homeowners have cashed out over $500 billion dollars less than before:5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | Simplifying The MarketDuring the crash, home values began to fall, and sellers found themselves in a negative equity situation (where the amount of the mortgage they owned was greater than the value of their home). Some decided to walk away from their homes, and that led to a rash of distressed property listings (foreclosures and short sales), which sold at huge discounts, thus lowering the value of other homes in the area. That can’t happen today.

Bottom Line

If you’re concerned we’re making the same mistakes that led to the housing crash, take a look at the charts and graphs above to help alleviate your fears.

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Buying Tips

The Biggest Perks of Buying a Home This Winter

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Waiting for perfect market conditions often means missing out. Because what you may not realize is, if you’re ready and able to buy, this time of year could actually give you an edge. Here’s why. As the weather cools down, the housing market can too – and that works in your favor.

You Likely Won’t Feel as Rushed

Homes tend to take a little longer to sell during this time of year. Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows the average time a house sits on the market jumps up during the winter months (see the green bars in the graph below):

a graph of blue and green barsThis is partly because fewer buyers are active at this time of year – and that decrease in buyer competition means the houses that are on the market aren’t going to be snatched up as quickly. So, if you decide to buy a home in the next couple of months, you’ll likely have more time to consider your options and negotiate a deal without feeling as pressured.

Sellers May Be More Willing To Negotiate

And since homes generally take longer to sell during the winter, sellers are often more motivated to close a deal. That can work in your favor, too. According to NAR:

“Less competition can lead to better deals. While homes are not selling as fast as during the summer, sellers may be more willing to negotiate.

Whether it’s compromising on price, covering closing costs or repairs, or including extras like appliances, you have more room to ask for what you need.

Homes Are Less Expensive in the Winter

With less competition from other buyers and sellers who are more willing to negotiate, you may see slightly lower prices too. In fact, according to NAR, homes are typically about 5% less expensive now compared to when prices normally peak in the summer.

That might not seem like a huge difference, but on a $400,000 home, it could mean savings of $20,000 on the purchase price.

You can see this expected seasonal shift in home prices taking place this year. Take a look at the graph below showing the median sales price of existing homes (homes that were previously owned) over the past 12 months. You’ll notice in the green bars that prices were lower in the winter months last year, and it seems like that’s going to happen again this year. That gives you the chance to make your budget go further:a graph of a number of people

Bottom Line

Buying a home during the winter means less competition, motivated sellers, and potentially lower prices, too. Work with a local real estate agent to find the right one at the right price for you.

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Buying Tips

What Homebuyers Need To Know About Credit Scores

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Some Highlights

  • Data shows 7 out of 10 prospective homebuyers don’t know the minimum credit score required by lenders or that it varies by lender and loan type.
  • According to Experian, the range is anywhere from 500 to 700 for the minimum credit score. That means you don’t need perfect credit to buy a home. 
  • Your credit score is important – but that doesn’t mean it needs to be perfect. Work with a lender to learn more about home loan options that may work for you.

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Buying Tips

The Top 2 Reasons To Look at Newly Built Homes

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When planning a move, a newly built home might not be the first thing that comes to mind. But with more brand-new homes on the market and builders focusing on smaller, more affordable options, this type of home may just be the key to crossing the homebuying finish line.

Here’s why a new build is worth considering – and how an agent can help you find one that meets your needs and your budget.

1. More Newly Built Homes Are Available Right Now

First, let’s break down the types of homes on the market. A newly built home is a house that was just built or is under construction. On the other hand, an existing home is one a homeowner has already lived in.

Right now, the number of existing homes for sale is still low. And, if you’re struggling to find something you like because there aren’t that many existing homes for sale, opening up your search to include brand-new homes could really expand your options. That’s because there are more newly built homes available right now than in a typical year (see graph below):

a graph of blue lines and white textFrom 1983 to 2019, newly built homes made up only 13% of the total inventory of homes for sale. Today, that number has climbed to 28.8%, according to the most recent data.

And as Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), notes:

“Even though existing home sales have been stuck at low levels, newly constructed home sales look to mark one of its best annual performance in 15 years . . . The new home inventory has been consistently rising with homebuilders getting active and making up around 1/3 of total inventory.” 

While the uptick in new home construction is encouraging, rest assured that builders aren’t overdoing it, they’re just making up for over a decade of underbuilding. There are still way more buyers than there are homes on the market. But the good news for you is this increase in newly built homes means more options for your search.

2. Newly Built Homes Are Becoming Less Expensive

Still skeptical if a new build is right for you or if they’re even in your budget? The average cost of newly built homes has actually come down from a year ago.

Why is that? Builders know affordability is top of mind for homebuyers right now. So they’re focusing their efforts on building smaller homes they can offer at lower price points and are more likely to sell. As Realtor.com says:

“Builders are increasingly bringing smaller, more affordable homes to the market, so buyers may find more newly-built homes that fit their budget.” 

Something to keep in mind: buying a newly built home isn’t the same as buying an existing one. Builder contracts have different fine print. So be sure to partner with a local agent who knows the market, builder reputations, and what to look for in those contracts.

Bottom Line

Depending on your needs and budget, a new build might be the opportunity you’ve been waiting for to bring your homebuying vision to life. If you’re interested in a brand-new home, connect with an agent so you can check out what builders in your area are up to.

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The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.