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5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time

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With all of the volatility in the stock market and uncertainty about the Coronavirus (COVID-19), some are concerned we may be headed for another housing crash like the one we experienced from 2006-2008. The feeling is understandable. Ali Wolf, Director of Economic Research at the real estate consulting firm Meyers Research, addressed this point in a recent interview:

“With people having PTSD from the last time, they’re still afraid of buying at the wrong time.”

There are many reasons, however, indicating this real estate market is nothing like 2008. Here are five visuals to show the dramatic differences.

1. Mortgage standards are nothing like they were back then.

During the housing bubble, it was difficult NOT to get a mortgage. Today, it is tough to qualify. The Mortgage Bankers’ Association releases a Mortgage Credit Availability Index which is “a summary measure which indicates the availability of mortgage credit at a point in time.” The higher the index, the easier it is to get a mortgage. As shown below, during the housing bubble, the index skyrocketed. Currently, the index shows how getting a mortgage is even more difficult than it was before the bubble.5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | Simplifying The Market

2. Prices are not soaring out of control.

Below is a graph showing annual house appreciation over the past six years, compared to the six years leading up to the height of the housing bubble. Though price appreciation has been quite strong recently, it is nowhere near the rise in prices that preceded the crash.5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | Simplifying The MarketThere’s a stark difference between these two periods of time. Normal appreciation is 3.6%, so while current appreciation is higher than the historic norm, it’s certainly not accelerating beyond control as it did in the early 2000s.

3. We don’t have a surplus of homes on the market. We have a shortage.

The months’ supply of inventory needed to sustain a normal real estate market is approximately six months. Anything more than that is an overabundance and will causes prices to depreciate. Anything less than that is a shortage and will lead to continued appreciation. As the next graph shows, there were too many homes for sale in 2007, and that caused prices to tumble. Today, there’s a shortage of inventory which is causing an acceleration in home values.5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | Simplifying The Market

4. Houses became too expensive to buy.

The affordability formula has three components: the price of the home, the wages earned by the purchaser, and the mortgage rate available at the time. Fourteen years ago, prices were high, wages were low, and mortgage rates were over 6%. Today, prices are still high. Wages, however, have increased and the mortgage rate is about 3.5%. That means the average family pays less of their monthly income toward their mortgage payment than they did back then. Here’s a graph showing that difference:5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | Simplifying The Market

5. People are equity rich, not tapped out.

In the run-up to the housing bubble, homeowners were using their homes as a personal ATM machine. Many immediately withdrew their equity once it built up, and they learned their lesson in the process. Prices have risen nicely over the last few years, leading to over fifty percent of homes in the country having greater than 50% equity. But owners have not been tapping into it like the last time. Here is a table comparing the equity withdrawal over the last three years compared to 2005, 2006, and 2007. Homeowners have cashed out over $500 billion dollars less than before:5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | Simplifying The MarketDuring the crash, home values began to fall, and sellers found themselves in a negative equity situation (where the amount of the mortgage they owned was greater than the value of their home). Some decided to walk away from their homes, and that led to a rash of distressed property listings (foreclosures and short sales), which sold at huge discounts, thus lowering the value of other homes in the area. That can’t happen today.

Bottom Line

If you’re concerned we’re making the same mistakes that led to the housing crash, take a look at the charts and graphs above to help alleviate your fears.

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Affordability

Mortgage Rates Recently Hit a 3-Year Low. Here’s Why That’s Still a Big Deal.

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If you’re one of the thousands of homebuyers waiting for rates to fall, you should know it’s already happening. And they recently crossed an important milestone. Rates officially dipped their toes into the 5s – something that hasn’t happened in about 3 years.

This moment marked a critical threshold. Now, rates are sitting in the low 6% territory. And expert forecasts project they’ll hover near this range throughout the year.

Here’s why that’s so good for you.

Why Current Rates Are Such a Big Deal

A mortgage rate doesn’t just affect the interest you end up paying on your home loan. It shapes your entire buying experience.

When rates were up around 7% just one year ago, a lot of buyers felt priced out. Payments were higher. Budgets felt tighter. Affordability was a bigger challenge. That’s especially true for first-time homebuyers, who felt the biggest pinch.

But according to industry experts, that’s starting to change now that rates are slowly inching down. Let’s break down why.

Right now, borrowing costs are in their lowest range in almost 3 years. And that can change the type of home you can afford.

At 6% or below, you’ll see:

  • Lower monthly payments. The payment on a $400k home loan is down over $300 compared to when rates were around 7%.
  • More buying power, thanks to the extra breathing room in your budget.

In other words, you can now make a stronger offer, purchase in a different location, or buy a home that checks more of your boxes. And that feels like a big shift compared to when rates were at 7%.

This Opens the Door for 550,000 Buyers

To drive home just how much this helps potential homebuyers like you, consider this research from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). It shows that when mortgage rates sit around this level, millions more households can afford a home. When rates are at 6% or below:

  • 5.5 million more households can afford the median-priced home
  • And roughly 550,000 of those people will likely buy a home within 12 to 18 months

That’s not just speculation. That’s pent-up demand finally getting the green light they’ve been waiting for. You’ve got the chance right now to get ahead and buy before more people notice the game has just changed.

Because whether rates stay in the low 6s or dip back down into the upper 5s, the math is already working in your favor. And the difference from a low 6% to a high 5% isn’t as big as you may think. But the difference from 7% to 6%? That is very much a big deal, and it’s a number that’s already working in your favor.

An Important Call Out

Mortgage rates don’t operate in a vacuum. Home prices, local inventory, property taxes, home insurance, and your personal finances still matter.

And a rate in this territory doesn’t mean every home suddenly works for every buyer. That’s why getting pre-approved and running your numbers with a trusted lender is key.

Still, this rate environment puts more buyers in play than we’ve seen in years. So, if buying didn’t work for you before, it’s worth taking another look.

Bottom Line

Mortgage rates dropping to a 3-year low isn’t just a headline.

For many buyers, where rates are now could be the difference between watching from the sidelines and finally getting the keys to their next home.

If you’ve been waiting for a sign to re-run your numbers and see what’s possible now, this is it.

Connect with a lender to take a look at what today’s rates mean for your budget and your options.

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For Buyers

Why Rising Foreclosure Headlines Aren’t a Red Flag for Today’s Housing Market

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If you’ve seen headlines saying foreclosure activity has been climbing for 10 straight months, it’s easy to assume that’s a sign of trouble for the housing market. But when you look at the full picture, a few simple truths become clear:

  • Today’s foreclosure numbers are in line with what’s considered normal
  • High home equity is keeping most homeowners in a strong financial position
  • None of the data points to a big wave of distressed sales that’ll crash the market

Foreclosure Filings Are Up 32%, But That Doesn’t Mean the Market’s in Trouble

If you peel the layers all the way back, what everyone is actually worried about is that we’re headed for a repeat of what happened in 2008. Back then, riskier lending practices and an oversupply of homes for sale brought home prices down and led to a significant increase in foreclosures. A lot of people felt the impact. But this isn’t the same situation.

Yes, ATTOM data shows foreclosure filings are up 32% year-over-year. And that increase is going to sound dramatic. But context matters, and it doesn’t mean we’re headed for another crash. And the numbers prove it. Take a look at where we were during the last crash (the red in the graph below). And where we are now (the blue):

a graph of a graph showing the number of yearsEven with the uptick lately, we are still nowhere near crash levels – far from it. This isn’t a return to crisis levels. What it is, is a return to normal.

The graph below shows foreclosure filings going all the way back to early 2005. The lead up to, and the aftermath of, the crash is there in red. Those are the years when foreclosure filings went above the 1 million mark each year.

Now, look at the right side and scan back to the 2017–2019 range (the last truly normal years for housing). You’ll see we’re actually just starting to fall back in line with what’s typical for the market, even with the increase lately:

a graph of a number of peopleRob Barber, CEO at ATTOM, explains it well:

Foreclosure activity increased in 2025, reflecting a continued normalization of the housing market following several years of historically low levels . . . While filings, starts, and repossessions all rose compared to 2024, foreclosure activity remains well below pre-pandemic norms and a fraction of what we saw during the last housing crisis . . . today’s uptick is being driven more by market recalibration than widespread homeowner distress, with strong equity positions and more disciplined lending continuing to limit risk.”

The word “normalization” in that quote is extra important. While economic and financial pressures are putting a strain on some homeowners, this isn’t a flood of distressed homes. No matter what the headlines may have you believe, this isn’t a large-scale crisis.

Today’s increase isn’t a sign of trouble. It’s a return to normal.

Why This Isn’t a Repeat of 2008

Even though the last housing crash still shapes how a lot of people interpret today’s news, the reality is, this is a different market:

  • Lending standards are stronger
  • Borrowers are more qualified
  • And homeowners have far more equity

And that equity piece is especially important. Over the last five years, home prices have risen significantly. For many people, their house is worth far more than they paid for it. That means most homeowners have a strong financial cushion to fall back on, if needed.

Basically, if someone faces hardship today, they often have the option to sell, and maybe even walk away with money in their pocket, instead of going through foreclosure. That’s a major contrast to 2008, when many homeowners owed more than their home was worth. 

Bottom Line

Foreclosure activity may be rising, but it’s still well within a normal range – and nowhere close to the danger zones of the past. But the headlines are doing more to terrify than clarify. And that’s exactly why having a trusted real estate expert you can call on is so important.

When you hear something in the news or see something on social about housing that worries you, reach out to a local agent. An expert will have the context needed to explain what’s really happening and how it impacts you (if at all). 

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For Buyers

Are Big Investors Really Buying Up All the Homes? Here’s the Truth.

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It’s hard to scroll online lately without seeing some version of this claim:

“Big investors are buying up all the homes.”

And honestly, if you’re a homebuyer who’s lost out on a few offers, that idea probably sounds believable. When homes are expensive and competition is tight, it’s easy to assume giant companies are scooping everything up behind the scenes.

But here’s the thing: what people assume is happening and what the data actually shows aren’t always the same.

Let’s look at what’s really happening with large institutional investors in today’s housing market – because the numbers tell a much different story than the headlines.

The Number Most People Won’t See Online

Let’s start with the most important stat. According to John Burns Research & Consulting (JBREC), large institutional investors – those that own 100 or more homes – made up just 1.2% of all home purchases in Q3 of 2025 (see graph below):

a graph of salesThat’s it. Out of every 100 homes sold, only about 1 went to a large institutional investor.

And here’s an important point that often gets missed: that level of investor activity is very much in line with historical norms. It’s not unusually high, and it’s actually well below the recent peak of 3.1% back in 2022 – which itself was still a small share of the overall market.

So, while it can feel like big investors are everywhere, nationally, they’re a very small part of overall home sales.

Why Investor Activity Gets So Much Attention

There are two main reasons this topic gets so much attention:

  1. Investor activity isn’t spread evenly.Investors are more active in certain markets, which can make competition feel intense for homebuyers in those areas. As Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub, explains:“On a national level, “large investors”—those owning at least 100 single-family homes—only own around 1% of total single-family housing stock. That said, in a handful of regional housing markets, institutional and large single-family landlords have a much larger presence.
  2. Investor is a broad term.Part of what makes the share of purchases bought by investors sound so big is because many headlines lump large Wall Street institutions together with small, local investors (like your neighbor who owns one or two rental homes). But those are very different buyers.In reality, most investors are small, local owners, not massive corporations. And when all investors get grouped together in the headlines as a single stat, it inflates the number and makes it seem like big institutions are dominating the market (even though they’re not).

Yes, big investors exist. Yes, they buy homes. But nationally, they’re responsible for a very small share of total purchases – far smaller than most people assume.

The bigger challenges around affordability have much more to do with supply, demand, and years of underbuilding than with large institutions competing against everyday buyers.

That’s why it’s so important to separate noise from reality, especially if you’re trying to decide if now is the right time to move.

Bottom Line

If you want to talk through what investor activity actually looks like in our local market, and how it impacts your options (or doesn’t), connect with a local real estate agent.

Sometimes a little context makes all the difference.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.