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5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time

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With all of the volatility in the stock market and uncertainty about the Coronavirus (COVID-19), some are concerned we may be headed for another housing crash like the one we experienced from 2006-2008. The feeling is understandable. Ali Wolf, Director of Economic Research at the real estate consulting firm Meyers Research, addressed this point in a recent interview:

“With people having PTSD from the last time, they’re still afraid of buying at the wrong time.”

There are many reasons, however, indicating this real estate market is nothing like 2008. Here are five visuals to show the dramatic differences.

1. Mortgage standards are nothing like they were back then.

During the housing bubble, it was difficult NOT to get a mortgage. Today, it is tough to qualify. The Mortgage Bankers’ Association releases a Mortgage Credit Availability Index which is “a summary measure which indicates the availability of mortgage credit at a point in time.” The higher the index, the easier it is to get a mortgage. As shown below, during the housing bubble, the index skyrocketed. Currently, the index shows how getting a mortgage is even more difficult than it was before the bubble.5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | Simplifying The Market

2. Prices are not soaring out of control.

Below is a graph showing annual house appreciation over the past six years, compared to the six years leading up to the height of the housing bubble. Though price appreciation has been quite strong recently, it is nowhere near the rise in prices that preceded the crash.5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | Simplifying The MarketThere’s a stark difference between these two periods of time. Normal appreciation is 3.6%, so while current appreciation is higher than the historic norm, it’s certainly not accelerating beyond control as it did in the early 2000s.

3. We don’t have a surplus of homes on the market. We have a shortage.

The months’ supply of inventory needed to sustain a normal real estate market is approximately six months. Anything more than that is an overabundance and will causes prices to depreciate. Anything less than that is a shortage and will lead to continued appreciation. As the next graph shows, there were too many homes for sale in 2007, and that caused prices to tumble. Today, there’s a shortage of inventory which is causing an acceleration in home values.5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | Simplifying The Market

4. Houses became too expensive to buy.

The affordability formula has three components: the price of the home, the wages earned by the purchaser, and the mortgage rate available at the time. Fourteen years ago, prices were high, wages were low, and mortgage rates were over 6%. Today, prices are still high. Wages, however, have increased and the mortgage rate is about 3.5%. That means the average family pays less of their monthly income toward their mortgage payment than they did back then. Here’s a graph showing that difference:5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | Simplifying The Market

5. People are equity rich, not tapped out.

In the run-up to the housing bubble, homeowners were using their homes as a personal ATM machine. Many immediately withdrew their equity once it built up, and they learned their lesson in the process. Prices have risen nicely over the last few years, leading to over fifty percent of homes in the country having greater than 50% equity. But owners have not been tapping into it like the last time. Here is a table comparing the equity withdrawal over the last three years compared to 2005, 2006, and 2007. Homeowners have cashed out over $500 billion dollars less than before:5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | Simplifying The MarketDuring the crash, home values began to fall, and sellers found themselves in a negative equity situation (where the amount of the mortgage they owned was greater than the value of their home). Some decided to walk away from their homes, and that led to a rash of distressed property listings (foreclosures and short sales), which sold at huge discounts, thus lowering the value of other homes in the area. That can’t happen today.

Bottom Line

If you’re concerned we’re making the same mistakes that led to the housing crash, take a look at the charts and graphs above to help alleviate your fears.

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Buying Tips

The Latest on the Luxury Home Market

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Luxury living is about more than just stunning views and cutting-edge smart home technology—it’s about elevating your lifestyle. And if you’re in the market for a million-dollar home, now is an excellent time to explore the thriving luxury market. Here’s why.

The Number of Luxury Homes Is Growing

The top of the market, or luxury homes, can mean different things depending on where you live. But in general, these are homes that are in the top 5% price range in any area. According to a recent report from Redfin, the average value of those homes has risen to over one million dollars:

“The median sale price for U.S. luxury homes, defined as the top 5% of listings, rose 9% year-over-year to a record $1.18 million during the second quarter.”

That same report goes on to show the percentage of homes valued at a million dollars or more has risen to an all-time high (see graph below):

No Caption ReceivedThat means, if this is your desired price range, you have options to choose from, each with different features and styles.

Whether you’re looking for the latest designs, like modern kitchens with high-end appliances, exclusive amenities, or enhanced privacy and security, the market that fits this lifestyle is growing.

Your Luxury Home Is an Investment

In addition, a luxury home could help you build significant long-term wealth. As the Redfin quote mentioned earlier says, luxury home prices are rising. That may be the reason there are a lot of people investing in luxury real estate right now. According to the August Luxury Market Report:

“By the end of July, the overall growth in the volume of sales in 2024 stood at 14.82% for single-family homes and 11.35% for attached homes compared to the same period in 2023.”

Bottom Line

With more million-dollar homes on the market and prices going up, you have luxury options to choose from and a chance to build significant long-term wealth. Want to see the best homes in your area? Get in touch with a local real estate agent today.

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Buying Tips

Could a 55+ Community Be Right for You?

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If you’re thinking about downsizing, you may be hearing about 55+ communities and wondering if they’d be a good fit for you. Here’s some information that could help you make your decision.

What Is a 55+ Community?

It’s important to note that these communities aren’t just for people who need extra support – they can be pretty vibrant, too. Many people who are downsizing opt for this type of home because they’re looking to be surrounded by people in a similar season of life. U.S. News explains:

“The terms ‘55-plus community,’ ‘active adult community,’ ‘lifestyle communities’ and ‘planned communities’ refer to a setting that caters to the needs and preferences of adults over the age of 55. These communities are designed for seniors who are able to care for themselves but may be looking to downsize to a community with others their same age and with similar interests.”

Why It’s Worth Considering This Type of Home

If that sounds like something that may interest you, here’s one thing to consider. You may find you’ve got a growing list of options if you look at this type of community. According to 55places.com, the number of listings tailored for homebuyers in this age group has increased by over 50% compared to last year.

And a bigger pool of options could make your move much less stressful because it’s easier to find something that’s specifically designed to meet your needs.

Other Benefits of 55+ Communities

On top of that, there are other benefits to seeking out this type of home. An article from 55places.com, highlights just a few:

  • Lower-Maintenance Living: Tired of mowing the lawn or pulling weeds? Many of these communities take care of this for you. So, you can spend more time doing fun things, and less time on maintenance.
  • On-Site Amenities: Some feature lifestyle amenities like a clubhouse, fitness center, and more, so it’s easy to stay active. Plus, others offer media rooms, libraries, spas, arts and craft studios, and more.
  • Like-Minded Neighbors: Additionally, these types of homes usually offer clubs, outings, meet-ups, and more to foster a close-knit community.
  • Accessible Floor Plans: Not to mention, many have first-floor living options, ample storage spaces, and modern floor plans so you can have a home tailored to this phase in your life.

Bottom Line

If this sounds appealing to you, reach out to a local real estate agent. They’ll be able to walk you through what’s available in your area and the unique amenities for each community. You may find a 55+ home is exactly what you’ve been searching for.

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For Buyers

Are We Heading into a Balanced Market?

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If you’ve been keeping an eye on the housing market over the past couple of years, you know sellers have had the upper hand. But is that going to shift now that inventory is growing? Here’s a breakdown of what you need to know.

What Is a Balanced Market?

A balanced market is generally defined as a market with about a five-to-seven-month supply of homes available for sale. In this type of market, neither buyers nor sellers have a clear advantage. Prices tend to stabilize, and there’s a healthier number of homes to choose from. And after many years when sellers had all the leverage, a more balanced market would be a welcome sight for people looking to move. The question is – is that really where the market is headed?

After starting the year with a three-month supply of homes nationally, inventory has increased to four months. That may not sound like a lot, but it means the market is getting closer to balanced – even though it’s not quite there yet. It’s important to note this increase in inventory is not leading to an oversupply that would cause a crash. Even with the growth lately, there’s still nowhere near enough supply for that to happen.

The graph below uses data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to give you an idea of where inventory has been in the past, and where it’s at today:

No Caption ReceivedFor now, this is still seller’s market territory – it’s just not as frenzied of a seller’s market as it’s been over the past few years. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:

“The faster housing supply increases, the more affordability improves and the strength of a seller’s market wanes.”

What This Means for You and Your Move

Here’s how this shift impacts you and the market conditions you’ll face when you move. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains:

“Homes are sitting on the market a bit longer, and sellers are receiving fewer offers. More buyers are insisting on home inspections and appraisals, and inventory is definitively rising on a national basis.”

The graphs below use the latest data from NAR and Realtor.com to help show examples of these changes:

Homes Are Sitting on the Market Longer: Since more homes are on the market, they’re not selling quite as fast. For buyers, this means you may have more time to find the right home. For sellers, it’s important to price your house right if you want it to sell. If you don’t, buyers might choose better-priced options.

Sellers Are Receiving Fewer Offers: As a seller, you might need to be more flexible and willing to compromise on price or terms to close the deal. For buyers, you could start to face less intense competition since you have more options to choose from.

Fewer Buyers Are Waiving Inspections: As a buyer, you have more negotiation power now. And that’s why fewer buyers are waiving inspections. For sellers, this means you need to be ready to negotiate and address repair requests to keep the sale moving forward.

How a Real Estate Agent Can Help

But this is just the national picture. The type of market you’re in is going to vary a lot based on how much inventory is available. So, lean on a local real estate agent for insight into how your area stacks up.

Whether you’re buying or selling, understanding how the market is changing gives you a big advantage. Your agent has the latest data and local insights, so you know exactly what’s happening and how to navigate it.

Bottom Line

The real estate market is always changing, and it’s important to stay informed. Whether you’re buying or selling, understanding this shift toward a balanced market can help. If you have any questions or need expert advice, don’t hesitate to reach out to a local real estate agent.

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The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.