For Buyers
Will Surging Unemployment Crush Home Sales?
Ten million Americans lost their jobs over the last two weeks. The next announced unemployment rate on May 8th is expected to be in the double digits. Because the health crisis brought the economy to a screeching halt, many are feeling a personal financial crisis. James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, explained that the government is trying to find ways to assist those who have lost their jobs and the companies which were forced to close (think: your neighborhood restaurant). In a recent interview he said:
“This is a planned, organized partial shutdown of the U.S. economy in the second quarter. The overall goal is to keep everyone, households and businesses, whole.”
That’s promising, but we’re still uncertain as to when the recently unemployed will be able to return to work.
Another concern: how badly will the U.S. economy be damaged if people can’t buy homes?
A new concern is whether the high number of unemployed Americans will cause the residential real estate market to crash, putting a greater strain on the economy and leading to even more job losses. The housing industry is a major piece of the overall economy in this country.
Chris Herbert, Managing Director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, in a post titled Responding to the Covid-19 Pandemic, addressed the toll this crisis will have on our nation, explaining:
“Housing is a foundational element of every person’s well-being. And with nearly a fifth of US gross domestic product rooted in housing-related expenditures, it is also critical to the well-being of our broader economy.”
How has the unemployment rate affected home sales in the past?
It’s logical to think there would be a direct correlation between the unemployment rate and home sales: as the unemployment rate went up, home sales would go down, and when the unemployment rate went down, home sales would go up.
However, research reviewing the last thirty years doesn’t show that direct relationship, as noted in the graph below. The blue and grey bars represent home sales, while the yellow line is the unemployment rate. Take a look at numbers 1 through 4:
- The unemployment rate was rising between 1992-1993, yet home sales increased.
- The unemployment rate was rising between 2001-2003, and home sales increased.
- The unemployment rate was rising between 2007-2010, and home sales significantly decreased.
- The unemployment rate was falling continuously between 2015-2019, and home sales remained relatively flat.
The impact of the unemployment rate on home sales doesn’t seem to be as strong as we may have thought.
Isn’t this time different?
Yes. There is no doubt the country hasn’t seen job losses this quickly in almost one hundred years. How bad could it get? Goldman Sachs projects the unemployment rate to be 15% in the third quarter of 2020, flattening to single digits by the fourth quarter of this year, and then just over 6% percent by the fourth quarter of 2021. Not ideal for the housing industry, but manageable.
How does this compare to the other financial crises?
Some believe this is going to be reminiscent of The Great Depression. From the standpoint of unemployment rates alone (the only thing this article addresses), it does not compare. Here are the unemployment rates during the Great Depression, the Great Recession, and the projected rates moving forward:
Bottom Line
We’ve given you the facts as we know them. The housing market will have challenges this year. However, with the help being given to those who have lost their jobs and the fact that we’re looking at a quick recovery for the economy after we address the health problem, the housing industry should be fine in the long term. Stay safe.
Are you wondering if you’re on track to retire someday?
According to Intuit, 69% of people say today’s financial environment makes it tough to plan for the future, and 68% aren’t sure they’ll ever be able to retire. That’s why many people are exploring new ways to build stability and long-term income.
And that’s where real estate comes in.
Why Real Estate? Here’s What It Can Do for You
If you’re able to make the numbers work, buying a second home can be a powerful tool for your future retirement. It could help you:
- Build wealth over time: As home prices rise through the years, your second home should grow in value and increase your net worth.
- Generate extra income: Renting the home could bring in some extra income you can add to your existing retirement savings. Just remember, some of the rent coming in will need to be used to pay that mortgage and maintain that house.
- Profit in the future: You may decide to sell the second home down the road and use the profit from that sale to give your retirement funds a boost.
- Diversify your financial assets: Real estate offers a tangible asset that can help reduce your dependence on just stocks or savings, making your overall financial picture more stable.
Most Second Homeowners Aren’t Big Investors
And if you’re thinking: wait, owning multiple homes is only for big investors – data shows that’s not necessarily true. Many homeowners who buy an additional property aren’t the big investors you hear so much about. They’re people like your neighbors.
In fact, data from BatchData and CJ Patrick Company shows 85% of people who own more than one property have just 1 to 5 homes (see graph below):
That means most who own multiple homes are people (not large investors) who’ve bought an extra home to rent out or hold onto for later.
Why Now Might Be the Right Time
And right now, the door may be opening for buyers like you. According to Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com:
“. . . the balance of power in the housing market keeps shifting in favor of homebuyers. . . A confluence of factors—including more homes for sale, rising price cuts, and slower-moving inventory—is giving buyers more leverage than they’ve had in years . . .”
If you live in an area where home prices are expected to rise, buying another property now and selling it later could help fund your future. Or you could rent it out and earn income now.
Start with Just a Few Trusted Pros
If this idea sounds interesting, the most important first step is to connect with a few key people who can guide you through the process:
- A local real estate agent who understands the market
- A lender who specializes in second home or investment loans
Surrounding yourself with the right pros can help you make confident decisions from day one.
Bottom Line
Talk with a local real estate agent about what’s possible. They’d love to help you explore whether owning a second home could bring you more security and peace of mind for the road ahead.
If a second home could help you retire earlier or with more freedom, would you want to take a closer look?
Some Highlights
- Prices, rates, and finding the right home are three of the biggest challenges for buyers today. You may find better luck with all 3 if you look at newly built homes.
- There are more available. Builders are more flexible on prices right now. And people who buy new homes tend to get lower rates in this market thanks to the incentives builders can offer.
- Connect with an agent if you want to see the new builds available in and around your area.
Buying a home is exciting… until you start thinking about the down payment. That’s when the worry can set in.
“I’ll never save enough.”
“I need a small fortune just to get started.”
“I guess I’ll just rent forever.”
Sound familiar? You’re not alone. And you’re definitely not out of luck.
Here’s the thing: a lot of what you’ve heard about down payments just isn’t true. And once you know the facts, you might realize you’re a lot closer to owning a home than you think.
Let’s break it all down and bust some big down payment myths while we’re at it.
Myth 1: “I need to come up with a big down payment.”
This one stops a lot of people in their tracks. A recent poll from Morning Consult and NeighborWorks shows 70% of Americans think they need to put at least 10% down to buy a home. And 11% aren’t sure what’s required at all (see graph below):
The truth? According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the typical down payment for first-time buyers has been between 6% and 9% since 2018. But there’s more to the story. If you qualify for an FHA loan, you may only need to put 3.5% down. And VA loans typically don’t require a down payment at all. So, there are options out there that can really make a difference for some buyers.
Myth 2: “It’ll take forever to save up for a down payment.”
Sure, saving can take time. But it may not have to be as long as you think. In many states, reaching your goal can happen faster than you might expect, especially when you know your budget and have a clear savings plan.
According to a new study, the amount of time varies depending on where you live. The map below shows, on average, how many years it takes to save up for a 10% down payment based on typical home values and income levels in each state (see map below):
But remember, in most cases you won’t even need a down payment as large as 10%. Plus, no matter how much money you end up putting down, it won’t all have to come out of your pocket. Here’s why.
Myth 3: “I have to do it all on my own.”
This is one of the biggest myths of all. The reality is, there are thousands of down payment assistance programs out there, and the same poll from Morning Consult and NeighborWorks shows 39% of people don’t even know about them. That means a lot of potential homebuyers could already be closer to homeownership – they just don’t realize it.
These assistance programs are designed to help people like you who are ready to own a home but just need a little support getting started. As Miki Adams, President at CBC Mortgage Agency, explains:
“With high interest rates and soaring home prices, down payment assistance is more essential than ever.”
Bottom Line
If you’ve been putting off buying a home because the down payment feels like too much to tackle, talk to a local real estate agent. You may not need as much as you think, and there are plenty of resources out there, so you don’t have to do it alone. You just need an expert to point you in the right direction.
If the down payment wasn’t the thing holding you back, would you be ready to start your home search?
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