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Will Surging Unemployment Crush Home Sales?

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Ten million Americans lost their jobs over the last two weeks. The next announced unemployment rate on May 8th is expected to be in the double digits. Because the health crisis brought the economy to a screeching halt, many are feeling a personal financial crisis. James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, explained that the government is trying to find ways to assist those who have lost their jobs and the companies which were forced to close (think: your neighborhood restaurant). In a recent interview he said:

“This is a planned, organized partial shutdown of the U.S. economy in the second quarter. The overall goal is to keep everyone, households and businesses, whole.”

That’s promising, but we’re still uncertain as to when the recently unemployed will be able to return to work.

Another concern: how badly will the U.S. economy be damaged if people can’t buy homes?

A new concern is whether the high number of unemployed Americans will cause the residential real estate market to crash, putting a greater strain on the economy and leading to even more job losses. The housing industry is a major piece of the overall economy in this country.

Chris Herbert, Managing Director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, in a post titled Responding to the Covid-19 Pandemic, addressed the toll this crisis will have on our nation, explaining:

“Housing is a foundational element of every person’s well-being. And with nearly a fifth of US gross domestic product rooted in housing-related expenditures, it is also critical to the well-being of our broader economy.”

How has the unemployment rate affected home sales in the past?

It’s logical to think there would be a direct correlation between the unemployment rate and home sales: as the unemployment rate went up, home sales would go down, and when the unemployment rate went down, home sales would go up.

However, research reviewing the last thirty years doesn’t show that direct relationship, as noted in the graph below. The blue and grey bars represent home sales, while the yellow line is the unemployment rate. Take a look at numbers 1 through 4:Will Surging Unemployment Crush Home Sales? | Simplifying The Market

  1. The unemployment rate was rising between 1992-1993, yet home sales increased.
  2. The unemployment rate was rising between 2001-2003, and home sales increased.
  3. The unemployment rate was rising between 2007-2010, and home sales significantly decreased.
  4. The unemployment rate was falling continuously between 2015-2019, and home sales remained relatively flat.

The impact of the unemployment rate on home sales doesn’t seem to be as strong as we may have thought.

Isn’t this time different?

Yes. There is no doubt the country hasn’t seen job losses this quickly in almost one hundred years. How bad could it get? Goldman Sachs projects the unemployment rate to be 15% in the third quarter of 2020, flattening to single digits by the fourth quarter of this year, and then just over 6% percent by the fourth quarter of 2021. Not ideal for the housing industry, but manageable.

How does this compare to the other financial crises?

Some believe this is going to be reminiscent of The Great Depression. From the standpoint of unemployment rates alone (the only thing this article addresses), it does not compare. Here are the unemployment rates during the Great Depression, the Great Recession, and the projected rates moving forward:Will Surging Unemployment Crush Home Sales? | Simplifying The Market

Bottom Line

We’ve given you the facts as we know them. The housing market will have challenges this year. However, with the help being given to those who have lost their jobs and the fact that we’re looking at a quick recovery for the economy after we address the health problem, the housing industry should be fine in the long term. Stay safe.

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Buying Tips

The Return to Urban Living — Why More People Are Moving Back to Cities

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After years of suburban and rural migration during the pandemic, cities have been making a comeback in the past couple of years. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the percentage of people moving to cities has risen to 16%. While that may not sound like a big number to you, it is the highest level in a decade – and that’s a big deal (see graph below):

And data from BrightMLS seems to confirm this trend. In a recent survey, 1 in 5 (20.6%) people looking to buy say they want to live in the city.

So, what’s behind this ongoing shift back to urban living? Let’s break down the top three reasons why people are trading quiet suburbs for bustling cityscapes. You may find out you want to sell your house with a big yard and move to an urban oasis, too.

1. Vibrant Culture

Cities have always been hubs of culture, entertainment, and community. They’re packed with energy and there are always endless things to do. During the pandemic, a lot of that excitement was put on pause. But the last couple of years? Cities are buzzing again.

There’s nothing quite like being able to walk to your favorite coffee shop, pop into a local gallery, see a live concert or show, or grab a last-minute dinner at a great spot down the street. It’s a lifestyle that’s easy to love — and one a lot of people want today.

2. Being Close to Work

Remote work is still a thing, but most companies are moving to hybrid schedules or even bringing employees back to the office. That makes living closer to work way more convenient. Whether it’s cutting down a long commute or having more chances to network in person, being close to the office is a big plus — especially for industries that thrive on face-to-face connections.

3. Easy Access To Everything You Need or Want

One of the best things about living in a city? The convenience. Public transportation, top-notch healthcare, and so much more are all within easy reach. For a lot of people, having everything nearby just makes life easier — and it’s a big reason they’re drawn to urban living.

What To Do If You Want To Move To the City

Let’s say you moved to a suburban area during the pandemic and you’re missing the excitement of living right off city streets. You’re probably thinking: how can I afford to move back into the heart of things with how mortgage rates and home prices are? Here’s how other people are doing it.

According to data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), home values have gone up by 57.4% in the last 5 years alone. And that means your house is probably going to sell for more than you bought it for.

If you already own a home in the suburbs, you may be able to sell that house and use the equity you get back to fuel your move. Sure, you may have to compromise and be happy with a smaller, urban space – but if it’s the lifestyle you’re craving – that trade-off is going to be worth it. To find out what’s possible and what it costs to live in an urban area, lean on a local real estate professional.

Bottom Line

The urban renaissance is real. Whether it’s the vibrant culture, being close to work, or having easy access to everything you need, cities are once again calling — and people are answering.

What’s your favorite thing about life in the city?

Connect with an agent to find a home you love where all the hustle and bustle makes life a bit more exciting.

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First-Time Buyers

Why You’ll Love Owning a Home

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a screenshot of a cellphone

Some Highlights

  • Owning a home comes with many benefits, both non-financial and financial.
  • From the sense of accomplishment and freedom of expression, to growing your net worth, it’s easy to fall in love with homeownership.
  • What’s the top reason you’d love to own a home? Connect with an agent to come up with a plan that makes it possible.

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Buying Tips

Breaking Into the Market: Smart Moves for First-Time Buyers

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If you’re like a lot of aspiring homebuyers, there’s a major hurdle standing in your way — the cost of living. From groceries to gas, eggs, and just about everything else, prices have gone up. And that rings true for home prices, too.

But even when everything feels expensive, there are still ways to make homeownership more than an item on your wish list. You may just need to think about where you plan to buy a bit differently.

Think of Your First Home as a Stepping Stone 

One of the biggest misconceptions among buyers is that their first home has to be their forever home – or that it has to check all the boxes of what they want right out of the gate. In reality, it’s just a starting point.

Once you own a home, you start to build equity, which grows over time as home prices rise. Down the road, if you want to move — whether to a larger space, a better location, or both — the equity you’ve gained can help you do just that.

So rather than waiting until you can afford your dream home in your ideal neighborhood, consider starting with something that works for now.

Expand Your Search To Find More Affordable Options 

If high home prices in your favorite area are holding you back, it’s time to cast a wider net. By keeping an open mind and being flexible with location, you may be surprised at what’s possible within your budget. Many buyers find success by looking in surrounding areas – and some even choose to move out of state.

According to a report from Realtor.com, these are some of the best markets for first-time homebuyers this year (see chart below):

Of course, moving to a different state isn’t for everyone – and isn’t a necessity. The right agent can help you find more cost-effective options wherever you are.

If you want to stay local, looking just outside your preferred neighborhood could help you find something you can afford that’s still pretty close to your favorite restaurants, shops, and activities. Sometimes, moving as little as 10 minutes away makes a big difference.

And the best way to see what’s available is to work with a real estate agent who understands the local market and can help you identify hidden gems nearby. An agent can point you to communities you may not have considered that have lower price tags now and are steadily gaining value and appeal. That way you can buy your first home and be set up to gain equity through the years.

Bottom Line

Today’s cost of living is a challenge for many homebuyers. But by exploring different areas and working with a knowledgeable agent, you can take that first step toward owning a home — and building equity for your future. 

How far outside of your area would you look to make homeownership happen? Connect with a local agent to chat through your options. 

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Let's Talk Real Estate. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.