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Will Surging Unemployment Crush Home Sales?

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Ten million Americans lost their jobs over the last two weeks. The next announced unemployment rate on May 8th is expected to be in the double digits. Because the health crisis brought the economy to a screeching halt, many are feeling a personal financial crisis. James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, explained that the government is trying to find ways to assist those who have lost their jobs and the companies which were forced to close (think: your neighborhood restaurant). In a recent interview he said:

“This is a planned, organized partial shutdown of the U.S. economy in the second quarter. The overall goal is to keep everyone, households and businesses, whole.”

That’s promising, but we’re still uncertain as to when the recently unemployed will be able to return to work.

Another concern: how badly will the U.S. economy be damaged if people can’t buy homes?

A new concern is whether the high number of unemployed Americans will cause the residential real estate market to crash, putting a greater strain on the economy and leading to even more job losses. The housing industry is a major piece of the overall economy in this country.

Chris Herbert, Managing Director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, in a post titled Responding to the Covid-19 Pandemic, addressed the toll this crisis will have on our nation, explaining:

“Housing is a foundational element of every person’s well-being. And with nearly a fifth of US gross domestic product rooted in housing-related expenditures, it is also critical to the well-being of our broader economy.”

How has the unemployment rate affected home sales in the past?

It’s logical to think there would be a direct correlation between the unemployment rate and home sales: as the unemployment rate went up, home sales would go down, and when the unemployment rate went down, home sales would go up.

However, research reviewing the last thirty years doesn’t show that direct relationship, as noted in the graph below. The blue and grey bars represent home sales, while the yellow line is the unemployment rate. Take a look at numbers 1 through 4:Will Surging Unemployment Crush Home Sales? | Simplifying The Market

  1. The unemployment rate was rising between 1992-1993, yet home sales increased.
  2. The unemployment rate was rising between 2001-2003, and home sales increased.
  3. The unemployment rate was rising between 2007-2010, and home sales significantly decreased.
  4. The unemployment rate was falling continuously between 2015-2019, and home sales remained relatively flat.

The impact of the unemployment rate on home sales doesn’t seem to be as strong as we may have thought.

Isn’t this time different?

Yes. There is no doubt the country hasn’t seen job losses this quickly in almost one hundred years. How bad could it get? Goldman Sachs projects the unemployment rate to be 15% in the third quarter of 2020, flattening to single digits by the fourth quarter of this year, and then just over 6% percent by the fourth quarter of 2021. Not ideal for the housing industry, but manageable.

How does this compare to the other financial crises?

Some believe this is going to be reminiscent of The Great Depression. From the standpoint of unemployment rates alone (the only thing this article addresses), it does not compare. Here are the unemployment rates during the Great Depression, the Great Recession, and the projected rates moving forward:Will Surging Unemployment Crush Home Sales? | Simplifying The Market

Bottom Line

We’ve given you the facts as we know them. The housing market will have challenges this year. However, with the help being given to those who have lost their jobs and the fact that we’re looking at a quick recovery for the economy after we address the health problem, the housing industry should be fine in the long term. Stay safe.

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Buying Tips

Thinking About an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage? Here’s What You Need To Know.

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If you’ve been looking for a home lately, you’ve probably felt how tough affordability still is. And that’s exactly why more buyers are opting for adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs.

Here’s what you need to understand about how they work, and whether they make sense for you.

What Is an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage?

Since a lot of people aren’t familiar with this type of loan, let’s start with a definition. This is how Business Insider explains the main difference between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage:

“With a fixed-rate mortgage, your interest rate remains the same for the entire time you have the loan. This keeps your monthly payment the same for years . . . adjustable-rate mortgages work differently. You’ll start off with the same rate for a few years, but after that, your rate can change periodically. This means that if average rates have gone up, your mortgage payment will increase. If they’ve gone down, your payment will decrease.”

Basically, one doesn’t change much over the life of your loan.

And one could change… either by a little, or a lot.

Of course, things like taxes or homeowner’s insurance can still have an impact on a fixed-rate loan, but the baseline of your mortgage payment is fairly steady. But the big difference is that with an ARM, your monthly payment could change over time.

Why Adjustable-Rate Mortgages Are Getting More Attention

So, why do some buyers choose this option? It’s simple. It’s because of the upfront savings. Business Insider explains it like this:

“Because ARM rates are typically lower than fixed mortgage rates, they can help buyers find affordability when rates are high. With a lower ARM rate, you can get a smaller monthly payment or afford more house than you could with a fixed-rate loan.

And right now, according to Mortgage News Daily and the Wall Street Journal, the upfront rate on an ARM is lower than a 30-year fixed mortgage (see graph below):

a graph with green and blue linesIf you’re wondering how that shakes out in real dollars and cents, here’s what Redfin says. According to their research, the typical buyer could save about $150 per month by taking out an ARM instead of a 30-year fixed mortgage.

For some people, that’s enough to make a difference.

More Buyers Are Choosing Adjustable-Rate Mortgages Today

A growing number of buyers are willing to trade the uncertainty later for a lower payment now. Data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) shows the share of buyers choosing ARMs has increased, especially over the last few years (see graph below).

This doesn’t mean ARMs are becoming the go-to option for everyone. It only means some buyers are opting for this type of mortgage, so they can still buy today.

a graph with a line going upAnd if you remember the housing crash, seeing ARMs gain popularity again may raise concerns. But rest easy. Today’s ARMs aren’t the same.

Back then, some buyers were given loans they couldn’t afford once rates adjusted.

Today, lending standards are stricter, and lenders evaluate whether borrowers could still handle the payment if rates rise. So, the return of ARMs doesn’t signal another widespread crash. It just reflects how some buyers are adapting to today’s affordability challenges.

The Trade-Off – What You Need To Consider

If you’re considering an adjustable-rate mortgage yourself, just remember it really all depends on your situation and your risk tolerance.

An ARM may make sense if you plan to move before your rate would adjust or if you expect you’ll make a higher income in the future. But there are trade-offs you need to think through.

For example, once the fixed period ends, your rate can adjust, and your payment could increase, potentially by a meaningful amount depending on where rates are at that time.

And keep in mind, there’s also no guarantee mortgage rates will come down in the future, which means refinancing later isn’t always an option. That’s why it’s important to think through your plan, understand your long-term earning potential, and work closely with a trusted lender before you choose an ARM.

Bottom Line

ARMs are getting more attention again because they can make buying a home more affordable in the short term. But they’re not right for everyone.

The key is understanding how they work, what the risks are, and whether they fit your plan. And that’s why you need to talk to a trusted lender and financial advisor before you make any decisions.

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Buying Tips

Before You Fall in Love with a House, Do This First.

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Be honest. Have you started looking at homes online yet? If you have, it’s already time to get pre-approved. Because here’s what not enough people know.

If buying a home is on your radar – even if it’s more of a someday plan than a right now plan – you don’t want to wait until later on in the process to tackle this step.

No matter what you’ve heard, pre-approval isn’t about commitment. It’s about clarity.

And here are the two big ways pre-approval sets you up for success. 

You Know Your Numbers Up Front 

During the pre-approval process, a lender will walk through your finances and tell you what you can borrow based on your income, debts, credit score, and more. And once you have that number, your search becomes a lot more focused.

With a mortgage pre-approval, you know what you can borrow, so it’s easier to figure out your ideal price point, and what you can actually afford. And that clarity is key.

Because if you just start browsing online and just guess at your price point, you run the risk of falling for a house that’s outside of your price range – or missing out on ones that aren’t.

You want this number to be clearly defined before your search. Here’s why.

You Can Move Quickly When You Find the One

This is how a lot of home searches go today. You scroll through listings just to see what’s out there, and then it happens. You fall in love with something you’ve seen online.

If you’re already pre-approved? You’re probably in great shape.

But if you’re not…

Instead of being able to jump on that house and quickly make an offer, you have to scramble to get a lender, gather the financial documents, and then submit the necessary pre-approval paperwork first. And while you’re waiting to hear back from your lender, someone else who’s more prepared could beat you to the house. As Bankrate explains:

“The best time to get a mortgage preapproval is before you start looking for a home. If you find a home you love but don’t have a preapproval in hand, you likely won’t have time to get preapproved before you need to make an offer . . .”

And that’s avoidable, with the right prep.

Because while you can’t control when the right home shows up, you can be ready for it. Think of it like showing up to the starting line with your shoes tied and your warm-up done – while everyone else is still looking for parking.

It’s not about rushing your timeline. It’s about removing the delay between finding the right home and being able to move on it.

One Thing You Need To Know About Pre-Approvals

Speaking of timing, pre-approvals do have an expiration date. So, be sure to ask your lender how long it’s good for. The Mortgage Reports explains:

Mortgage preapproval letters are typically valid for anywhere from 30 to 90 days. However, a preapproval can be updated and extended if the lender re-checks your information.”

Doing the right prep and knowing this information can make the whole process a lot smoother.

You don’t have to be ready to buy to be ready to buy.

Getting pre-approved doesn’t mean you’re committing to buy right now. It just means you’ve taken a step to understand your numbers. And when a home catches your attention, you’re prepped and good to go.

Bottom Line

Ask yourself this: if your perfect home popped up tomorrow, would you be ready to make a move?

If the answer is no and you want to buy, it may be time to get pre-approved. You don’t feel behind before your search even officially kicks off.

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For Buyers

Don’t Let Home Prices Headlines Fool You

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Spend about 5 minutes online searching for news about the housing market, and odds are you’ll see something pop up about home prices. You may even stumble onto social media influencers saying we’re headed for a crash. Let’s get you the context you need.

The truth is prices are going to vary depending on where you live. But they’re not crashing.

Here’s what you need to know.

The Local Perspective: Home Price Trends by Area

The biggest thing feeding into the confusion online is how different home price trends are by area right now. Take a look at this data from ResiClub and Zillow (see graph below).

About half of the largest metros are seeing prices go up.

The other half are seeing some declines.

a graph of different colored linesUnfortunately, the online chatter only focuses on the markets where prices are down – and that makes it sound like something bigger is happening.

But, as you can see in this graph, that’s only one side of the story. The full picture is different.

The National Perspective: Moderate Price Growth

As a country, when you average it all together to get a true baseline, one thing becomes clear, home prices are still net positive at the national level.

According to the Redfin, national home prices were up about 1% year-over-year in February. So, what we’re seeing right now isn’t a collapse. It’s a market that’s normalizing after a period of unusually fast growth. And that impacts some local markets more than others – particularly those where prices rose too far, too fast during the pandemic. 

A true crash, like what happened in 2008, would mean prices dropping sharply across the entire country. That’s just not what the data shows today. And it’s not where things are going either.

Experts Agree This Isn’t 2008

In fact, Fannie Mae surveyed over 100 housing market experts to ask their opinions on where prices are headed from here. And the experts agree, nationally, prices are expected to keep rising over the next five years

a graph of green rectangular bars with numbersThat rise will be moderate, particularly this year, but the trend is clear. Nationally, prices are forecast to grow every year now through at least 2030 – and that’s normal. Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist, at Redfin explains:

House prices aren’t going to fall on a national scale any time soon—and that’s actually a good thing. It’s normal for house prices to rise gradually over time . . .”

That’s why even in the select areas where prices have dropped slightly this year, the decline is expected to be temporary. According to that same quarterly Fannie Mae survey mentioned above, 85% of the experts say the markets that are seeing mild declines right now will return to positive price growth before the end of 2027.

The main takeaway? This isn’t a crash. And prices aren’t expected to fall nationally. If anything, the few areas experiencing declines are expected to rebound in the next year or so.

Bottom Line

It’s easy to get caught up in headlines that make it sound like something big is about to happen. But don’t be fooled. The housing market isn’t crashing. It’s just shifting.

The key is understanding what’s actually happening in your market, so you can make the right move for you. Connect with a real estate agent if you want the local perspective.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.