For Buyers
Will This Economic Crisis Have a V, U, or L-Shaped Recovery?
Many American businesses have been put on hold as the country deals with the worst pandemic in over one hundred years. As the states are deciding on the best strategy to slowly and safely reopen, the big question is: how long will it take the economy to fully recover?
Let’s look at the possibilities. Here are the three types of recoveries that follow most economic slowdowns (the definitions are from the financial glossary at Market Business News):
- V-shaped recovery: an economic period in which the economy experiences a sharp decline. However, it is also a brief period of decline. There is a clear bottom (called a trough by economists) which does not last long. Then there is a strong recovery.
- U-shaped recovery: when the decline is more gradual, i.e., less severe. The recovery that follows starts off moderately and then picks up speed. The recovery could last 12-24 months.
- L-shaped recovery: a steep economic decline followed by a long period with no growth. When an economy is in an L-shaped recovery, getting back to where it was before the decline will take years.
What type of recovery will we see this time?
No one can answer this question with one hundred percent certainty. However, most top financial services firms are calling for a V-shaped recovery. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo Securities, and JP Morgan have all recently come out with projections that call for GDP to take a deep dive in the first half of the year but have a strong comeback in the second half.
Is there any research on recovery following a pandemic?
There have been two extensive studies done that look at how an economy has recovered from a pandemic in the past. Here are the conclusions they reached:
1. John Burns Consulting:
“Historical analysis showed us that pandemics are usually V-shaped (sharp recessions that recover quickly enough to provide little damage to home prices), and some very cutting-edge search engine analysis by our Information Management team showed the current slowdown is playing out similarly thus far.”
2. Harvard Business Review:
“It’s worth looking back at history to place the potential impact path of Covid-19 empirically. In fact, V-shapes monopolize the empirical landscape of prior shocks, including epidemics such as SARS, the 1968 H3N2 (“Hong Kong”) flu, 1958 H2N2 (“Asian”) flu, and 1918 Spanish flu.”
The research says we should experience a V-shaped recovery.
Does everyone agree it will be a ‘V’?
No. Some are concerned that, even when businesses are fully operational, the American public may be reluctant to jump right back in.
As Market Business News explains:
“In a typical V-shaped recovery, there is a huge shift in economic activity after the downturn and the trough. Growing consumer demand and spending drive the massive shift in economic activity.”
If consumer demand and spending do not come back as quickly as most expect it will, we may be heading for a U-shaped recovery.
In a message last Thursday, Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, agrees with other analysts who are expecting a resurgence in the economy later this year:
“We’re forecasting real economic growth of 30% for the U.S. in the 4th quarter of this year and 6.1% in 2021.”
His projection, however, calls for a U-shaped recovery based on concerns that consumers may not rush back in:
“After the steep plunge and bottoming out, a ‘U-shaped’ recovery should begin as consumer confidence slowly returns.”
Bottom Line
The research indicates the recovery will be V-shaped, and most analysts agree. However, no one knows for sure how quickly Americans will get back to “normal” life. We will have to wait and see as the situation unfolds.
Are you wondering if you’re on track to retire someday?
According to Intuit, 69% of people say today’s financial environment makes it tough to plan for the future, and 68% aren’t sure they’ll ever be able to retire. That’s why many people are exploring new ways to build stability and long-term income.
And that’s where real estate comes in.
Why Real Estate? Here’s What It Can Do for You
If you’re able to make the numbers work, buying a second home can be a powerful tool for your future retirement. It could help you:
- Build wealth over time: As home prices rise through the years, your second home should grow in value and increase your net worth.
- Generate extra income: Renting the home could bring in some extra income you can add to your existing retirement savings. Just remember, some of the rent coming in will need to be used to pay that mortgage and maintain that house.
- Profit in the future: You may decide to sell the second home down the road and use the profit from that sale to give your retirement funds a boost.
- Diversify your financial assets: Real estate offers a tangible asset that can help reduce your dependence on just stocks or savings, making your overall financial picture more stable.
Most Second Homeowners Aren’t Big Investors
And if you’re thinking: wait, owning multiple homes is only for big investors – data shows that’s not necessarily true. Many homeowners who buy an additional property aren’t the big investors you hear so much about. They’re people like your neighbors.
In fact, data from BatchData and CJ Patrick Company shows 85% of people who own more than one property have just 1 to 5 homes (see graph below):
That means most who own multiple homes are people (not large investors) who’ve bought an extra home to rent out or hold onto for later.
Why Now Might Be the Right Time
And right now, the door may be opening for buyers like you. According to Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com:
“. . . the balance of power in the housing market keeps shifting in favor of homebuyers. . . A confluence of factors—including more homes for sale, rising price cuts, and slower-moving inventory—is giving buyers more leverage than they’ve had in years . . .”
If you live in an area where home prices are expected to rise, buying another property now and selling it later could help fund your future. Or you could rent it out and earn income now.
Start with Just a Few Trusted Pros
If this idea sounds interesting, the most important first step is to connect with a few key people who can guide you through the process:
- A local real estate agent who understands the market
- A lender who specializes in second home or investment loans
Surrounding yourself with the right pros can help you make confident decisions from day one.
Bottom Line
Talk with a local real estate agent about what’s possible. They’d love to help you explore whether owning a second home could bring you more security and peace of mind for the road ahead.
If a second home could help you retire earlier or with more freedom, would you want to take a closer look?
Some Highlights
- Prices, rates, and finding the right home are three of the biggest challenges for buyers today. You may find better luck with all 3 if you look at newly built homes.
- There are more available. Builders are more flexible on prices right now. And people who buy new homes tend to get lower rates in this market thanks to the incentives builders can offer.
- Connect with an agent if you want to see the new builds available in and around your area.
Buying a home is exciting… until you start thinking about the down payment. That’s when the worry can set in.
“I’ll never save enough.”
“I need a small fortune just to get started.”
“I guess I’ll just rent forever.”
Sound familiar? You’re not alone. And you’re definitely not out of luck.
Here’s the thing: a lot of what you’ve heard about down payments just isn’t true. And once you know the facts, you might realize you’re a lot closer to owning a home than you think.
Let’s break it all down and bust some big down payment myths while we’re at it.
Myth 1: “I need to come up with a big down payment.”
This one stops a lot of people in their tracks. A recent poll from Morning Consult and NeighborWorks shows 70% of Americans think they need to put at least 10% down to buy a home. And 11% aren’t sure what’s required at all (see graph below):
The truth? According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the typical down payment for first-time buyers has been between 6% and 9% since 2018. But there’s more to the story. If you qualify for an FHA loan, you may only need to put 3.5% down. And VA loans typically don’t require a down payment at all. So, there are options out there that can really make a difference for some buyers.
Myth 2: “It’ll take forever to save up for a down payment.”
Sure, saving can take time. But it may not have to be as long as you think. In many states, reaching your goal can happen faster than you might expect, especially when you know your budget and have a clear savings plan.
According to a new study, the amount of time varies depending on where you live. The map below shows, on average, how many years it takes to save up for a 10% down payment based on typical home values and income levels in each state (see map below):
But remember, in most cases you won’t even need a down payment as large as 10%. Plus, no matter how much money you end up putting down, it won’t all have to come out of your pocket. Here’s why.
Myth 3: “I have to do it all on my own.”
This is one of the biggest myths of all. The reality is, there are thousands of down payment assistance programs out there, and the same poll from Morning Consult and NeighborWorks shows 39% of people don’t even know about them. That means a lot of potential homebuyers could already be closer to homeownership – they just don’t realize it.
These assistance programs are designed to help people like you who are ready to own a home but just need a little support getting started. As Miki Adams, President at CBC Mortgage Agency, explains:
“With high interest rates and soaring home prices, down payment assistance is more essential than ever.”
Bottom Line
If you’ve been putting off buying a home because the down payment feels like too much to tackle, talk to a local real estate agent. You may not need as much as you think, and there are plenty of resources out there, so you don’t have to do it alone. You just need an expert to point you in the right direction.
If the down payment wasn’t the thing holding you back, would you be ready to start your home search?
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