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Will This Economic Crisis Have a V, U, or L-Shaped Recovery?

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Many American businesses have been put on hold as the country deals with the worst pandemic in over one hundred years. As the states are deciding on the best strategy to slowly and safely reopen, the big question is: how long will it take the economy to fully recover?

Let’s look at the possibilities. Here are the three types of recoveries that follow most economic slowdowns (the definitions are from the financial glossary at Market Business News):

  • V-shaped recovery: an economic period in which the economy experiences a sharp decline. However, it is also a brief period of decline. There is a clear bottom (called a trough by economists) which does not last long. Then there is a strong recovery.
  • U-shaped recovery: when the decline is more gradual, i.e., less severe. The recovery that follows starts off moderately and then picks up speed. The recovery could last 12-24 months.
  • L-shaped recovery: a steep economic decline followed by a long period with no growth. When an economy is in an L-shaped recovery, getting back to where it was before the decline will take years.

What type of recovery will we see this time?

No one can answer this question with one hundred percent certainty. However, most top financial services firms are calling for a V-shaped recovery. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo Securities, and JP Morgan have all recently come out with projections that call for GDP to take a deep dive in the first half of the year but have a strong comeback in the second half.Will This Economic Crisis Have a V, U, or L-Shaped Recovery? | Simplifying The Market

Is there any research on recovery following a pandemic?

There have been two extensive studies done that look at how an economy has recovered from a pandemic in the past. Here are the conclusions they reached:

1. John Burns Consulting:

“Historical analysis showed us that pandemics are usually V-shaped (sharp recessions that recover quickly enough to provide little damage to home prices), and some very cutting-edge search engine analysis by our Information Management team showed the current slowdown is playing out similarly thus far.”

2. Harvard Business Review:

“It’s worth looking back at history to place the potential impact path of Covid-19 empirically. In fact, V-shapes monopolize the empirical landscape of prior shocks, including epidemics such as SARS, the 1968 H3N2 (“Hong Kong”) flu, 1958 H2N2 (“Asian”) flu, and 1918 Spanish flu.”

The research says we should experience a V-shaped recovery.

Does everyone agree it will be a ‘V’?

No. Some are concerned that, even when businesses are fully operational, the American public may be reluctant to jump right back in.

As Market Business News explains:

“In a typical V-shaped recovery, there is a huge shift in economic activity after the downturn and the trough. Growing consumer demand and spending drive the massive shift in economic activity.”

If consumer demand and spending do not come back as quickly as most expect it will, we may be heading for a U-shaped recovery.

In a message last Thursday, Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, agrees with other analysts who are expecting a resurgence in the economy later this year:

“We’re forecasting real economic growth of 30% for the U.S. in the 4th quarter of this year and 6.1% in 2021.”

His projection, however, calls for a U-shaped recovery based on concerns that consumers may not rush back in:

“After the steep plunge and bottoming out, a ‘U-shaped’ recovery should begin as consumer confidence slowly returns.”

Bottom Line

The research indicates the recovery will be V-shaped, and most analysts agree. However, no one knows for sure how quickly Americans will get back to “normal” life. We will have to wait and see as the situation unfolds.

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Buying Tips

The Return to Urban Living — Why More People Are Moving Back to Cities

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After years of suburban and rural migration during the pandemic, cities have been making a comeback in the past couple of years. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the percentage of people moving to cities has risen to 16%. While that may not sound like a big number to you, it is the highest level in a decade – and that’s a big deal (see graph below):

And data from BrightMLS seems to confirm this trend. In a recent survey, 1 in 5 (20.6%) people looking to buy say they want to live in the city.

So, what’s behind this ongoing shift back to urban living? Let’s break down the top three reasons why people are trading quiet suburbs for bustling cityscapes. You may find out you want to sell your house with a big yard and move to an urban oasis, too.

1. Vibrant Culture

Cities have always been hubs of culture, entertainment, and community. They’re packed with energy and there are always endless things to do. During the pandemic, a lot of that excitement was put on pause. But the last couple of years? Cities are buzzing again.

There’s nothing quite like being able to walk to your favorite coffee shop, pop into a local gallery, see a live concert or show, or grab a last-minute dinner at a great spot down the street. It’s a lifestyle that’s easy to love — and one a lot of people want today.

2. Being Close to Work

Remote work is still a thing, but most companies are moving to hybrid schedules or even bringing employees back to the office. That makes living closer to work way more convenient. Whether it’s cutting down a long commute or having more chances to network in person, being close to the office is a big plus — especially for industries that thrive on face-to-face connections.

3. Easy Access To Everything You Need or Want

One of the best things about living in a city? The convenience. Public transportation, top-notch healthcare, and so much more are all within easy reach. For a lot of people, having everything nearby just makes life easier — and it’s a big reason they’re drawn to urban living.

What To Do If You Want To Move To the City

Let’s say you moved to a suburban area during the pandemic and you’re missing the excitement of living right off city streets. You’re probably thinking: how can I afford to move back into the heart of things with how mortgage rates and home prices are? Here’s how other people are doing it.

According to data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), home values have gone up by 57.4% in the last 5 years alone. And that means your house is probably going to sell for more than you bought it for.

If you already own a home in the suburbs, you may be able to sell that house and use the equity you get back to fuel your move. Sure, you may have to compromise and be happy with a smaller, urban space – but if it’s the lifestyle you’re craving – that trade-off is going to be worth it. To find out what’s possible and what it costs to live in an urban area, lean on a local real estate professional.

Bottom Line

The urban renaissance is real. Whether it’s the vibrant culture, being close to work, or having easy access to everything you need, cities are once again calling — and people are answering.

What’s your favorite thing about life in the city?

Connect with an agent to find a home you love where all the hustle and bustle makes life a bit more exciting.

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First-Time Buyers

Why You’ll Love Owning a Home

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a screenshot of a cellphone

Some Highlights

  • Owning a home comes with many benefits, both non-financial and financial.
  • From the sense of accomplishment and freedom of expression, to growing your net worth, it’s easy to fall in love with homeownership.
  • What’s the top reason you’d love to own a home? Connect with an agent to come up with a plan that makes it possible.

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Buying Tips

Breaking Into the Market: Smart Moves for First-Time Buyers

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If you’re like a lot of aspiring homebuyers, there’s a major hurdle standing in your way — the cost of living. From groceries to gas, eggs, and just about everything else, prices have gone up. And that rings true for home prices, too.

But even when everything feels expensive, there are still ways to make homeownership more than an item on your wish list. You may just need to think about where you plan to buy a bit differently.

Think of Your First Home as a Stepping Stone 

One of the biggest misconceptions among buyers is that their first home has to be their forever home – or that it has to check all the boxes of what they want right out of the gate. In reality, it’s just a starting point.

Once you own a home, you start to build equity, which grows over time as home prices rise. Down the road, if you want to move — whether to a larger space, a better location, or both — the equity you’ve gained can help you do just that.

So rather than waiting until you can afford your dream home in your ideal neighborhood, consider starting with something that works for now.

Expand Your Search To Find More Affordable Options 

If high home prices in your favorite area are holding you back, it’s time to cast a wider net. By keeping an open mind and being flexible with location, you may be surprised at what’s possible within your budget. Many buyers find success by looking in surrounding areas – and some even choose to move out of state.

According to a report from Realtor.com, these are some of the best markets for first-time homebuyers this year (see chart below):

Of course, moving to a different state isn’t for everyone – and isn’t a necessity. The right agent can help you find more cost-effective options wherever you are.

If you want to stay local, looking just outside your preferred neighborhood could help you find something you can afford that’s still pretty close to your favorite restaurants, shops, and activities. Sometimes, moving as little as 10 minutes away makes a big difference.

And the best way to see what’s available is to work with a real estate agent who understands the local market and can help you identify hidden gems nearby. An agent can point you to communities you may not have considered that have lower price tags now and are steadily gaining value and appeal. That way you can buy your first home and be set up to gain equity through the years.

Bottom Line

Today’s cost of living is a challenge for many homebuyers. But by exploring different areas and working with a knowledgeable agent, you can take that first step toward owning a home — and building equity for your future. 

How far outside of your area would you look to make homeownership happen? Connect with a local agent to chat through your options. 

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The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.