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Will This Economic Crisis Have a V, U, or L-Shaped Recovery?

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Many American businesses have been put on hold as the country deals with the worst pandemic in over one hundred years. As the states are deciding on the best strategy to slowly and safely reopen, the big question is: how long will it take the economy to fully recover?

Let’s look at the possibilities. Here are the three types of recoveries that follow most economic slowdowns (the definitions are from the financial glossary at Market Business News):

  • V-shaped recovery: an economic period in which the economy experiences a sharp decline. However, it is also a brief period of decline. There is a clear bottom (called a trough by economists) which does not last long. Then there is a strong recovery.
  • U-shaped recovery: when the decline is more gradual, i.e., less severe. The recovery that follows starts off moderately and then picks up speed. The recovery could last 12-24 months.
  • L-shaped recovery: a steep economic decline followed by a long period with no growth. When an economy is in an L-shaped recovery, getting back to where it was before the decline will take years.

What type of recovery will we see this time?

No one can answer this question with one hundred percent certainty. However, most top financial services firms are calling for a V-shaped recovery. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo Securities, and JP Morgan have all recently come out with projections that call for GDP to take a deep dive in the first half of the year but have a strong comeback in the second half.Will This Economic Crisis Have a V, U, or L-Shaped Recovery? | Simplifying The Market

Is there any research on recovery following a pandemic?

There have been two extensive studies done that look at how an economy has recovered from a pandemic in the past. Here are the conclusions they reached:

1. John Burns Consulting:

“Historical analysis showed us that pandemics are usually V-shaped (sharp recessions that recover quickly enough to provide little damage to home prices), and some very cutting-edge search engine analysis by our Information Management team showed the current slowdown is playing out similarly thus far.”

2. Harvard Business Review:

“It’s worth looking back at history to place the potential impact path of Covid-19 empirically. In fact, V-shapes monopolize the empirical landscape of prior shocks, including epidemics such as SARS, the 1968 H3N2 (“Hong Kong”) flu, 1958 H2N2 (“Asian”) flu, and 1918 Spanish flu.”

The research says we should experience a V-shaped recovery.

Does everyone agree it will be a ‘V’?

No. Some are concerned that, even when businesses are fully operational, the American public may be reluctant to jump right back in.

As Market Business News explains:

“In a typical V-shaped recovery, there is a huge shift in economic activity after the downturn and the trough. Growing consumer demand and spending drive the massive shift in economic activity.”

If consumer demand and spending do not come back as quickly as most expect it will, we may be heading for a U-shaped recovery.

In a message last Thursday, Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, agrees with other analysts who are expecting a resurgence in the economy later this year:

“We’re forecasting real economic growth of 30% for the U.S. in the 4th quarter of this year and 6.1% in 2021.”

His projection, however, calls for a U-shaped recovery based on concerns that consumers may not rush back in:

“After the steep plunge and bottoming out, a ‘U-shaped’ recovery should begin as consumer confidence slowly returns.”

Bottom Line

The research indicates the recovery will be V-shaped, and most analysts agree. However, no one knows for sure how quickly Americans will get back to “normal” life. We will have to wait and see as the situation unfolds.

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Buying Tips

The Biggest Perks of Buying a Home This Winter

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Waiting for perfect market conditions often means missing out. Because what you may not realize is, if you’re ready and able to buy, this time of year could actually give you an edge. Here’s why. As the weather cools down, the housing market can too – and that works in your favor.

You Likely Won’t Feel as Rushed

Homes tend to take a little longer to sell during this time of year. Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows the average time a house sits on the market jumps up during the winter months (see the green bars in the graph below):

a graph of blue and green barsThis is partly because fewer buyers are active at this time of year – and that decrease in buyer competition means the houses that are on the market aren’t going to be snatched up as quickly. So, if you decide to buy a home in the next couple of months, you’ll likely have more time to consider your options and negotiate a deal without feeling as pressured.

Sellers May Be More Willing To Negotiate

And since homes generally take longer to sell during the winter, sellers are often more motivated to close a deal. That can work in your favor, too. According to NAR:

“Less competition can lead to better deals. While homes are not selling as fast as during the summer, sellers may be more willing to negotiate.

Whether it’s compromising on price, covering closing costs or repairs, or including extras like appliances, you have more room to ask for what you need.

Homes Are Less Expensive in the Winter

With less competition from other buyers and sellers who are more willing to negotiate, you may see slightly lower prices too. In fact, according to NAR, homes are typically about 5% less expensive now compared to when prices normally peak in the summer.

That might not seem like a huge difference, but on a $400,000 home, it could mean savings of $20,000 on the purchase price.

You can see this expected seasonal shift in home prices taking place this year. Take a look at the graph below showing the median sales price of existing homes (homes that were previously owned) over the past 12 months. You’ll notice in the green bars that prices were lower in the winter months last year, and it seems like that’s going to happen again this year. That gives you the chance to make your budget go further:a graph of a number of people

Bottom Line

Buying a home during the winter means less competition, motivated sellers, and potentially lower prices, too. Work with a local real estate agent to find the right one at the right price for you.

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Buying Tips

What Homebuyers Need To Know About Credit Scores

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Some Highlights

  • Data shows 7 out of 10 prospective homebuyers don’t know the minimum credit score required by lenders or that it varies by lender and loan type.
  • According to Experian, the range is anywhere from 500 to 700 for the minimum credit score. That means you don’t need perfect credit to buy a home. 
  • Your credit score is important – but that doesn’t mean it needs to be perfect. Work with a lender to learn more about home loan options that may work for you.

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Buying Tips

The Top 2 Reasons To Look at Newly Built Homes

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When planning a move, a newly built home might not be the first thing that comes to mind. But with more brand-new homes on the market and builders focusing on smaller, more affordable options, this type of home may just be the key to crossing the homebuying finish line.

Here’s why a new build is worth considering – and how an agent can help you find one that meets your needs and your budget.

1. More Newly Built Homes Are Available Right Now

First, let’s break down the types of homes on the market. A newly built home is a house that was just built or is under construction. On the other hand, an existing home is one a homeowner has already lived in.

Right now, the number of existing homes for sale is still low. And, if you’re struggling to find something you like because there aren’t that many existing homes for sale, opening up your search to include brand-new homes could really expand your options. That’s because there are more newly built homes available right now than in a typical year (see graph below):

a graph of blue lines and white textFrom 1983 to 2019, newly built homes made up only 13% of the total inventory of homes for sale. Today, that number has climbed to 28.8%, according to the most recent data.

And as Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), notes:

“Even though existing home sales have been stuck at low levels, newly constructed home sales look to mark one of its best annual performance in 15 years . . . The new home inventory has been consistently rising with homebuilders getting active and making up around 1/3 of total inventory.” 

While the uptick in new home construction is encouraging, rest assured that builders aren’t overdoing it, they’re just making up for over a decade of underbuilding. There are still way more buyers than there are homes on the market. But the good news for you is this increase in newly built homes means more options for your search.

2. Newly Built Homes Are Becoming Less Expensive

Still skeptical if a new build is right for you or if they’re even in your budget? The average cost of newly built homes has actually come down from a year ago.

Why is that? Builders know affordability is top of mind for homebuyers right now. So they’re focusing their efforts on building smaller homes they can offer at lower price points and are more likely to sell. As Realtor.com says:

“Builders are increasingly bringing smaller, more affordable homes to the market, so buyers may find more newly-built homes that fit their budget.” 

Something to keep in mind: buying a newly built home isn’t the same as buying an existing one. Builder contracts have different fine print. So be sure to partner with a local agent who knows the market, builder reputations, and what to look for in those contracts.

Bottom Line

Depending on your needs and budget, a new build might be the opportunity you’ve been waiting for to bring your homebuying vision to life. If you’re interested in a brand-new home, connect with an agent so you can check out what builders in your area are up to.

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The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.