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For Buyers

Are Home Prices Headed Toward Bubble Territory?

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Talk of a housing bubble is beginning to crop up as home prices have appreciated at a rapid pace this year. This is understandable since the appreciation of residential real estate is well above historic annual averages. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), annual appreciation since 1991 has averaged 3.8%. Here are the latest 2020 appreciation numbers from three reliable sources:

It’s easy to jump to the conclusion that house appreciation is out of control in today’s market. However, we need to put these numbers into context first.

Inflation and the Comeback from the Housing Crash

Following the housing crash, home values depreciated dramatically from 2007-2011. Values are still recovering from that unusually long period of falling prices. We must also realize that normal inflation has had an impact.

Bill McBride, the founder of the well-respected Calculated Risk blog, recently summed it up this way:

“It has been over fourteen years since the bubble peak. In the Case-Shiller release today, the seasonally adjusted National Index, was reported as being 22.2% above the previous bubble peak. However, in real terms (adjusted for inflation), the National index is still about 2% below the bubble peak…As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $291,000 today adjusted for inflation.”

The COVID Impact on Home Prices

The pandemic caused many households to reconsider whether their current home still fulfills their lifestyle. Many homeowners now want larger yards that are both separate and private.

Their needs on the inside of the home have changed too. People now want home offices, gyms, and living rooms well-suited for video conferencing. Barbara Ballinger, a freelance writer and the author of several books on real estate, recently wrote:

“While homeowners continue to want their outdoor spaces that offer a safe retreat, that appeal has shifted into other parts of the home, coupling comfort with function. In other words, homeowners want amenities for work and leisure, and they plan to enjoy them long after the pandemic.”

At the same time, concerns about the pandemic have caused many homeowners to put their plans to sell on hold. Realtor.com just released their November Monthly Housing Market Trends Report. It explains:

“Nationally, the inventory of homes for sale decreased 39.2% over the past year in November…This amounted to 490,000 fewer homes for sale compared to November of last year.”

More people buying and fewer people selling has caused home prices to escalate. However, with a vaccine on the horizon, more homeowners will be putting their houses on the market. This will better balance supply with demand and slow down the rapid appreciation.

That’s why major organizations in the housing industry are calling for much more moderate home appreciation next year. Here are the most recent forecasts for 2021:

This Is Nothing Like 2006

Finally, let’s put to rest some of the concerns that today’s scenario is anything like what led up to the last housing crash. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains why this is nothing like 2006:

“Such a frenzy of activity, reminiscent of 2006, raises questions about a bubble and the potential for a painful crash. The answer: There’s no comparison. Back in 2006, dubious adjustable-rate mortgages taxed many buyers’ budgets. Some loans didn’t even require income documentation. Today, buyers are taking out 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fourteen years ago, there were 3.8 million homes listed for sale, and home builders were putting up about 2 million new units. Now, inventory is only about 1.5 million homes, and home builders are underproducing relative to historical averages.”

Bottom Line

Most aspects of life have been anything but normal in 2020. That includes buying and selling real estate. High demand coupled with restricted supply has caused home prices to appreciate above historic levels. With the end of the health crisis in sight, we will see price appreciation return to more normal levels next year.

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Affordability

Renting vs. Buying: The Numbers Might Surprise You

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Renting can feel like the easier choice right now. There’s no big down payment. No dealing with surprise repairs. And no long-term commitment.

But then your rent goes up again. And again. And suddenly the thing that seemed flexible starts looking… expensive, especially considering you’re not building any equity. And once that happens, it’s easy to feel a little trapped in the cycle.

That’s because there’s so much chatter today about how buying a home isn’t affordable. But the truth is, the math may work out better than you’d expect based on what’s changed recently.

Buying Is More Affordable Than Renting in Many Areas 

In a lot of places today, owning a home actually costs less each month than renting a 3-bedroom home. And recent data from ATTOM shows that’s true in nearly 58% of counties across the U.S. (see chart below).

And that’s after you factor in things like insurance and typical maintenance costs. 

a blue and grey circle with white textIn other words, even though it may feel like a bit of a shock, the numbers show rent often stretches monthly budgets more than owning does. That’s thanks to slower home price growth, more homes for sale, and monthly mortgage payments starting to ease as rates come down.

Affordability Still Varies by Region

Now, even though nationally the balance has shifted, that doesn’t mean buying is more affordable in every market or for every renter.

While buying is more affordable than renting in nearly 58% of counties nationwide, that share looks different depending on your region (see graph below):

a graph of a market

The biggest improvement is happening in the Midwest and South. But if you’re living in the West, things could still feel tight.

The takeaway? How affordable buying is really depends on where you live. And the only way to know how this plays out where you live is to look at the numbers locally.

So, What’s Still Holding Buyers Back? 

Maybe you’re nodding along so far but thinking, “Okay, but I still can’t afford the upfront costs.” If that’s your reaction, you’re not the only one.

For many renters, the biggest hurdle isn’t the monthly payment alone. It’s the down payment, too.

But you’re not out of options. Here’s the part most people don’t hear enough about: there are thousands of down payment assistance programs available across the country, and many buyers qualify without realizing it.

And the average benefit? Roughly $18,000.

That kind of support can help cover part of your down payment or closing costs, which means you may not need to save nearly as much as you think to get started.

When you combine that with monthly payments that may work better than expected, especially as rates continue to ease and prices cool, buying may feel far more realistic than it looks at first glance.

Bottom Line

The point isn’t that everyone should rush out and buy a home tomorrow.

It’s that renting isn’t always the more affordable option people assume it is – and buying may be more realistic than it feels once you look at the full picture.

If you’re renting and feeling stuck in the “someday” loop, it might be worth a simple conversation with a local real estate agent or lender. Just a chance to see what’s possible and whether it makes sense for you.

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For Buyers

Move-Up Buyers Are Choosing New Construction

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At some point, a house that once felt perfect just… doesn’t anymore.

Maybe you need more space.

Maybe working from home turned your dining room into a permanent office.

Maybe the layout just doesn’t match how you live now.

If your current house is starting to feel like it’s holding you back instead of supporting your life, it’s natural to think about making a move. But that brings up the next big question: once you sell, where do you go?

For a growing number of buyers, the answer is something brand new.

New Construction Is a More Popular Choice Lately

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), more people are buying new homes than they have in years. The latest annual data available shows 16% of homes purchased were newly built.

At first glance you may not see why that’s a big deal. But that’s actually the highest share of new home purchases in almost two decades.

Why More Buyers Are Choosing a Brand-New Construction

For many buyers, especially move-up buyers, new construction isn’t just about aesthetics. It’s about lifestyle, convenience, and peace of mind.

1. Everything Is Brand New

You’re not inheriting someone else’s projects. No wondering how old the roof is. No budgeting for a new HVAC right after move-in. No big surprises when the previous owners patch job fails. For move-up buyers who’ve been dumping money into updating their current house, that’s a win.

2. You Can Customize Before Move In

If you choose a home that’s still under construction, you could have the chance to pick the flooring, counters, cabinets, hardware, lighting, and so much more. That level of personalization can be a draw for move-up buyers like you, because it allows you to hand pick the fit and finishes you’ve been wanting for so long.

3. A Home Designed for How People Live Today

Most new construction homes are built to current building standards and buyer preferences, which means you could see built-in smart home features, better energy efficiency (which can lower utility bills), and even more modern floor plans and features. And if your layout just isn’t working for you anymore, you may find exactly what you need now in a new home.

4. Neighborhood Amenities

New developments often include shared community spaces like walking trails, parks, playgrounds, or even pools and gyms. For families and active households, that’s a big bonus to have that just a few steps out of their front door.

5. Builder Incentives

Not to mention, since there are more new homes on the market than the norm, builders are motivated to sell what they have. So, you may find they’re more willing to negotiate than you’d expect on things like price, upgrades, and more.

Bottom Line

If your current house isn’t meeting your needs anymore, don’t assume your only choice is an existing home. New construction is becoming a real contender, especially for move-up buyers who want space, features, and a home that works for how they live now.

Curious whether new construction might be a fit for you? Talk to a local real estate agent.

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For Buyers

Inventory Is Making a Comeback in 2026

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After a long stretch where buyers were competing for too few homes, inventory has made a comeback over the past year. And depending on where you live, that’s opening up your options in a meaningful way. 

According to Realtor.com, the number of homes available for sale in January was the highest it’s been since 2020. Here’s why that’s such a big deal. Getting back to pre-pandemic levels signals a slow and steady return to what’s typical:

a graph with numbers and a blue backgroundNow, it’s worth noting, nationally we’re not there yet – and having more inventory improving won’t suddenly “fix” the market. But the growth we’ve seen lately still changes how competitive the market feels.

  • When there are more homes for sale, buyers gain time, options, and leverage.
  • When there aren’t, the pressure ramps up quickly.

In the years since 2020, there weren’t enough homes for sale, and that made the market feel different. Rushed. Stressful. Intimidating.

But now it’s finally getting better.

A Growing Portion of the Country Is Getting Back to Normal

Depending on where you live, inventory growth is going to vary. Some places are bouncing back faster than others. According to Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub, in January 2025, just a little over one year ago, only 41 of the 200 largest metros were back to normal inventory-wise. 

But around the end of year, almost half (90) of the largest 200 metro areas were back at or above typical levels. That’s a big improvement in roughly a year. And it’s not done yet. 

Inventory Is Expected To Keep Growing 

Looking ahead, forecasts suggest the number of homes for sale could rise another 10% this year, which means even more markets should join the list of places where supply has rebounded.

Here’s a graph that shows what an extra 10% would do for the market this year. You can see that projected growth (shown in the dotted line) hits inventory levels seen in 2017-2019 by roughly this fall (the gray lines). That means we may reach normal by end of year, nationally:

a graph of different colored lines

And that changes your home search in a good way. As Hannah Jones, Senior Economic Research Analyst at Realtor.com, puts it:

“. . . housing market conditions are gradually rebalancing after several years of extreme seller advantage. Buyers are beginning to see more options and modest negotiating power as inventory improves . . .

In other words, the market is starting to work with buyers again — not against them.

Bottom Line

Inventory isn’t fully back to normal everywhere. But it’s moving in the right direction. And, in some areas, it’s already there.

If you’ve been waiting for a moment when you have options and a little breathing room, this is the strongest setup buyers have seen in a long time.

If you want to know what’s happening in your local market, talk to an agent.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.