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Are Home Prices Headed Toward Bubble Territory?

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Talk of a housing bubble is beginning to crop up as home prices have appreciated at a rapid pace this year. This is understandable since the appreciation of residential real estate is well above historic annual averages. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), annual appreciation since 1991 has averaged 3.8%. Here are the latest 2020 appreciation numbers from three reliable sources:

It’s easy to jump to the conclusion that house appreciation is out of control in today’s market. However, we need to put these numbers into context first.

Inflation and the Comeback from the Housing Crash

Following the housing crash, home values depreciated dramatically from 2007-2011. Values are still recovering from that unusually long period of falling prices. We must also realize that normal inflation has had an impact.

Bill McBride, the founder of the well-respected Calculated Risk blog, recently summed it up this way:

“It has been over fourteen years since the bubble peak. In the Case-Shiller release today, the seasonally adjusted National Index, was reported as being 22.2% above the previous bubble peak. However, in real terms (adjusted for inflation), the National index is still about 2% below the bubble peak…As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $291,000 today adjusted for inflation.”

The COVID Impact on Home Prices

The pandemic caused many households to reconsider whether their current home still fulfills their lifestyle. Many homeowners now want larger yards that are both separate and private.

Their needs on the inside of the home have changed too. People now want home offices, gyms, and living rooms well-suited for video conferencing. Barbara Ballinger, a freelance writer and the author of several books on real estate, recently wrote:

“While homeowners continue to want their outdoor spaces that offer a safe retreat, that appeal has shifted into other parts of the home, coupling comfort with function. In other words, homeowners want amenities for work and leisure, and they plan to enjoy them long after the pandemic.”

At the same time, concerns about the pandemic have caused many homeowners to put their plans to sell on hold. Realtor.com just released their November Monthly Housing Market Trends Report. It explains:

“Nationally, the inventory of homes for sale decreased 39.2% over the past year in November…This amounted to 490,000 fewer homes for sale compared to November of last year.”

More people buying and fewer people selling has caused home prices to escalate. However, with a vaccine on the horizon, more homeowners will be putting their houses on the market. This will better balance supply with demand and slow down the rapid appreciation.

That’s why major organizations in the housing industry are calling for much more moderate home appreciation next year. Here are the most recent forecasts for 2021:

This Is Nothing Like 2006

Finally, let’s put to rest some of the concerns that today’s scenario is anything like what led up to the last housing crash. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains why this is nothing like 2006:

“Such a frenzy of activity, reminiscent of 2006, raises questions about a bubble and the potential for a painful crash. The answer: There’s no comparison. Back in 2006, dubious adjustable-rate mortgages taxed many buyers’ budgets. Some loans didn’t even require income documentation. Today, buyers are taking out 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fourteen years ago, there were 3.8 million homes listed for sale, and home builders were putting up about 2 million new units. Now, inventory is only about 1.5 million homes, and home builders are underproducing relative to historical averages.”

Bottom Line

Most aspects of life have been anything but normal in 2020. That includes buying and selling real estate. High demand coupled with restricted supply has caused home prices to appreciate above historic levels. With the end of the health crisis in sight, we will see price appreciation return to more normal levels next year.

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First-Time Buyers

Top 2026 Housing Markets for Buyers and Sellers

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Who doesn’t love a top 10 list? Well, here are two top 10 lists for the housing market this year. But before you take a look, there’s something you should know.

If a move is on your radar for 2026, here’s the most important thing you need to understand upfront: there isn’t one housing market this year – there are many.

Experts agree 2026 is shaping up to be one of the most geographically split housing markets in years. Some areas are tilting in favor of sellers, while others are opening real doors for buyers. Who has the advantage depends almost entirely on where you are. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at Cotality, puts it this way:

Looking ahead to 2026, regional differences will remain pronounced, with demand favoring areas that offer both economic opportunity and relative affordability.”

To show just how divided the landscape is, here’s a look at where sellers are expected to have the upper hand, and where first-time buyers may finally find their opening this year.

Where Sellers Are Poised To Win Big in 2026

Zillow identified the following metros as some of the strongest seller markets for 2026, based on buyer demand, pricing momentum, and how quickly homes are expected to sell:

a wooden house and a stack of coinsIn markets like these, buyers are going to be competing for limited inventory, which gives sellers more leverage.

Homeowners in seller’s markets this year can expect:

  • Stronger buyer interest

  • Shorter time on market

  • Better odds of selling close to (or above) asking price

That doesn’t mean every listing is guaranteed success. But it does mean sellers who prepare well and lean on an agent’s expertise should be very happy with their results in 2026.

Markets Where There’s More Opportunity for First-Time Buyers

On the flip side, here’s a look at where buyers have the power – in particular, first-time buyers, since they’ve had the hardest time breaking into the market lately. Realtor.com highlights the top metros where first-time buyers are expected to have better opportunities in 2026:

a girl riding a skateboard in front of a houseThese markets stand out for a mix of:

  • More affordable home prices

  • Better housing availability

  • Strong local amenities and economic health

For first-time buyers, that combination matters. It’s what could finally turn “someday” into “this could actually work.” In buyer’s markets, they should expect:

  • Less intense competition

  • More room to negotiate

  • A clearer path to getting an offer accepted

What Matters More Than Any Top 10 List

Not seeing your city on the list? Don’t stress. This is just a national snapshot, not a judgment on your local market. The goal here is just to show you how different the market really is depending on where you are.

And remember, you can buy or sell no matter how your local market leans. You just need an agent’s help to figure out the right strategy to get it done. For example:

  • A seller in a more buyer-friendly metro may need to be aggressive on their price and prep.

  • A buyer in a seller-leaning area may still need to come prepared with their best offer.

To find out where your market falls and what you should expect, you’ll want the help of a local expert.

Bottom Line

The housing market in 2026 isn’t one-size-fits-all. It’s a year where local conditions matter more than ever.

Whether your market leans more buyer-friendly or seller-friendly, the right strategy can put you in a strong position. And that’s where a local expert comes in. Connect with a trusted real estate agent today.

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Buying Tips

You May Not Want To Skip Over That House That’s Been Sitting on the Market

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When you see a house that’s been sitting on the market for a while, the reaction is almost automatic. You start thinking:

  • What’s wrong with it?

  • Why hasn’t anyone bought it yet?

  • Am I missing something?

That mindset made sense a few years ago. But in today’s market, you may actually miss out.

More Time on Market Isn’t Automatically a Concern Anymore

A few years ago, homes sold in just a matter of days. Sometimes, hours. Anything that lingered longer than that raised concerns. But that’s no longer the baseline.

Inventory has grown. Buyers have more choices. And homes are taking longer to sell across the board. Those are some of the reasons why the typical time it takes a home to sell has climbed this year:

a graph of blue barsAnd it’s not that 73 days is slow. That’s actually pretty normal for this time of year. It just feels slow because you heard so much about houses being snapped up in the buying frenzy a few years ago.

That shift alone explains a lot of what you’re seeing. It’s not necessarily that there’s anything wrong with the house itself. Although, let’s be honest, sometimes that is the case.

Most of the time today, a house that’s taking longer to sell simply means:

  • There are a lot of homes for sale in that area

  • The seller priced a little too high at first

  • The home didn’t photograph as well online

  • Buyers passed it over for flashier listings nearby

  • The timing just wasn’t right when it first hit the market

None of those are necessarily deal-breakers.

What Buyers Often Get Wrong About These Listings

Because even though you may assume a house that hasn’t sold must have hidden issues, the reality is, that’s not always the case. And, if the house does have issues, it’ll show up quickly in your inspection.

That’s information you can use to negotiate. Not a reason to walk away automatically. And in many cases, that’s where buyers find the best deals.

The key is knowing which homes that have been sitting for a while are worth a second look – and which ones aren’t. That’s why working with a local agent makes a real difference. They’ll be able to look at disclosures and more to help you uncover hidden gems other buyers may overlook. 

Bottom Line

A home sitting on the market isn’t always a warning sign. Sometimes it’s an overlooked opportunity.

If you want help identifying which homes are worth a second look (and which ones to skip), talk to a local agent.

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Affordability

Mortgage Rates Recently Hit a 3-Year Low. Here’s Why That’s Still a Big Deal.

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If you’re one of the thousands of homebuyers waiting for rates to fall, you should know it’s already happening. And they recently crossed an important milestone. Rates officially dipped their toes into the 5s – something that hasn’t happened in about 3 years.

This moment marked a critical threshold. Now, rates are sitting in the low 6% territory. And expert forecasts project they’ll hover near this range throughout the year.

Here’s why that’s so good for you.

Why Current Rates Are Such a Big Deal

A mortgage rate doesn’t just affect the interest you end up paying on your home loan. It shapes your entire buying experience.

When rates were up around 7% just one year ago, a lot of buyers felt priced out. Payments were higher. Budgets felt tighter. Affordability was a bigger challenge. That’s especially true for first-time homebuyers, who felt the biggest pinch.

But according to industry experts, that’s starting to change now that rates are slowly inching down. Let’s break down why.

Right now, borrowing costs are in their lowest range in almost 3 years. And that can change the type of home you can afford.

At 6% or below, you’ll see:

  • Lower monthly payments. The payment on a $400k home loan is down over $300 compared to when rates were around 7%.
  • More buying power, thanks to the extra breathing room in your budget.

In other words, you can now make a stronger offer, purchase in a different location, or buy a home that checks more of your boxes. And that feels like a big shift compared to when rates were at 7%.

This Opens the Door for 550,000 Buyers

To drive home just how much this helps potential homebuyers like you, consider this research from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). It shows that when mortgage rates sit around this level, millions more households can afford a home. When rates are at 6% or below:

  • 5.5 million more households can afford the median-priced home
  • And roughly 550,000 of those people will likely buy a home within 12 to 18 months

That’s not just speculation. That’s pent-up demand finally getting the green light they’ve been waiting for. You’ve got the chance right now to get ahead and buy before more people notice the game has just changed.

Because whether rates stay in the low 6s or dip back down into the upper 5s, the math is already working in your favor. And the difference from a low 6% to a high 5% isn’t as big as you may think. But the difference from 7% to 6%? That is very much a big deal, and it’s a number that’s already working in your favor.

An Important Call Out

Mortgage rates don’t operate in a vacuum. Home prices, local inventory, property taxes, home insurance, and your personal finances still matter.

And a rate in this territory doesn’t mean every home suddenly works for every buyer. That’s why getting pre-approved and running your numbers with a trusted lender is key.

Still, this rate environment puts more buyers in play than we’ve seen in years. So, if buying didn’t work for you before, it’s worth taking another look.

Bottom Line

Mortgage rates dropping to a 3-year low isn’t just a headline.

For many buyers, where rates are now could be the difference between watching from the sidelines and finally getting the keys to their next home.

If you’ve been waiting for a sign to re-run your numbers and see what’s possible now, this is it.

Connect with a lender to take a look at what today’s rates mean for your budget and your options.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.