For Buyers
There’s No Reason To Panic Over Today’s Lending Standards
Today, some are afraid the real estate market is starting to look a lot like it did in 2006, just prior to the housing crash. One of the factors they’re pointing to is the availability of mortgage money. Recent articles about the availability of low down payment loans and down payment assistance programs are causing fear that we’re returning to the bad habits seen 15 years ago. Let’s alleviate these concerns.
Several times a year, the Mortgage Bankers Association releases an index titled The Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI). According to their website:
“The MCAI provides the only standardized quantitative index that is solely focused on mortgage credit. The MCAI is…a summary measure which indicates the availability of mortgage credit at a point in time.”
Basically, the index determines how easy it is to get a mortgage. The higher the index, the more available mortgage credit becomes. Here’s a graph of the MCAI dating back to 2004, when the data first became available:
As we can see, the index stood at about 400 in 2004. Mortgage credit became more available as the housing market heated up, and then the index passed 850 in 2006. When the real estate market crashed, so did the MCAI (to below 100) as mortgage money became almost impossible to secure. Thankfully, lending standards have eased somewhat since. The index, however, is still below 150, which is about one-sixth of what it was in 2006.
Why did the index rage out of control during the housing bubble?
The main reason was the availability of loans with extremely weak lending standards. To keep up with demand in 2006, many mortgage lenders offered loans that put little emphasis on the eligibility of the borrower. Lenders were approving loans without always going through a verification process to confirm if the borrower would likely be able to repay the loan.
Some of these loans offered attractive, low interest rates that increased over time. The loans were popular because they could be obtained quickly and without the borrower having to provide documentation up front. However, as the rates increased, borrowers struggled to pay their mortgages.
Today, lending standards are much tighter. As Investopedia explains, the risky loans given at that time are extremely rare today, primarily because lending standards have drastically improved:
“In the aftermath of the crisis, the U.S. government issued new regulations to improve standard lending practices across the credit market, which included tightening the requirements for granting loans.”
An example of the relaxed lending standards leading up to the housing crash is the FICO® credit score associated with a loan. What’s a FICO® score? The website myFICO explains:
“A credit score tells lenders about your creditworthiness (how likely you are to pay back a loan based on your credit history). It is calculated using the information in your credit reports. FICO® Scores are the standard for credit scores—used by 90% of top lenders.”
During the housing boom, many mortgages were written for borrowers with a FICO score under 620. Experian reveals that, in today’s market, lenders are more cautious about lower credit scores:
“Statistically speaking, 28% of consumers with credit scores in the Fair range are likely to become seriously delinquent in the future…Some lenders dislike those odds and choose not to work with individuals whose FICO® Scores fall within this range.”
There are definitely still loan programs that allow a 620 score. However, lending institutions overall are much more attentive about measuring risk when approving loans. According to Ellie Mae’s latest Origination Insight Report, the average FICO® score on all loans originated in February was 753.
The graph below shows the billions of dollars in mortgage money given annually to borrowers with a credit score under 620.
In 2006, mortgage entities originated $376 billion dollars in loans for purchasers with a score under 620. Last year, that number was only $74 billion.
Bottom Line
In 2006, lending standards were much more relaxed with little evaluation done to measure a borrower’s potential to repay their loan. Today, standards are tighter, and the risk is reduced for both lenders and borrowers. These are two very different housing markets, so there’s no need to panic over today’s lending standards.
Some Highlights
- Equity is the difference between what your house is worth and what you still owe on your mortgage.
- The typical homeowner gained $28,000 over the past year and has a grand total of $305,000 in equity. And there are a lot of great ways you can use that equity.
- To find out how much equity you have, connect with a real estate agent who can give you a Professional Equity Assessment Report (PEAR).
As someone who’s thinking about buying or selling a home, you’re probably paying close attention to mortgage rates – and wondering what’s ahead.
One thing that can affect mortgage rates is the Federal Funds Rate, which influences how much it costs banks to borrow money from each other. While the Federal Reserve (the Fed) doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, they do control the Federal Funds Rate.
The relationship between the two is why people have been watching closely to see when the Fed might lower the Federal Funds Rate. Whenever they do, that’ll put downward pressure on mortgage rates. The Fed meets next week, and three of the most important metrics they’ll look at as they make their decision are:
- The Rate of Inflation
- How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding
- The Unemployment Rate
Here’s the latest data on all three.
1. The Rate of Inflation
You’ve probably heard a lot about inflation over the past year or two – and you’ve likely felt it whenever you’ve gone to buy just about anything. That’s because high inflation means prices have been going up quickly.
The Fed has stated its goal is to get the rate of inflation back down to 2%. Right now, it’s still higher than that, but moving in the right direction (see graph below):
2. How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding
The Fed is also watching how many new jobs are created each month. They want to see job growth slow down consistently before taking any action on the Federal Funds Rate. If fewer jobs are created, it means the economy is still strong but cooling a bit – which is their goal. That appears to be exactly what’s happening now. Inman says:
“. . . the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers added fewer jobs in April and May than previously thought and that hiring by private companies was sluggish in June.”
So, while employers are still adding jobs, they’re not adding as many as before. That’s an indicator the economy is slowing down after being overheated for quite some time. This is an encouraging trend for the Fed to see.
3. The Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate is the percentage of people who want to work but can’t find jobs. So, a low rate means a lot of Americans are employed. That’s a good thing for many people.
But it can also lead to higher inflation because more people working means more spending – which drives up prices. Right now, the unemployment rate is low, but it’s been rising slowly over the past few months (see graph below):
What Does This Mean Moving Forward?
While mortgage rates are going to continue to be volatile in the days and months ahead, these are signs the economy is headed in the direction the Fed wants to see. But even with that, it’s unlikely they’ll cut the Federal Funds Rate when they meet next week. Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, recently said:
“We want to be more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% before we start the process of reducing or loosening policy.”
Basically, we’re seeing the first signs now, but they need more data and more time to feel confident that this is a consistent trend. Assuming that direction continues, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, experts say there’s a projected 96.1% chance the Fed will lower the Federal Funds Rate at their September meeting.
Remember, the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates. It’s just that whenever they decide to cut the Federal Funds Rate, mortgage rates should respond.
Of course, the timing of when the Fed takes action could change because of new economic reports, world events, and other factors. That’s why it’s usually not a good idea to try to time the market.
Bottom Line
Recent economic data may signal that hope is on the horizon for mortgage rates. Count on a local real estate agent you can trust to keep you up to date on the latest trends and what they mean for you.
If you’re in the market to buy a home, there’s some exciting news for you. Many people assume that newly built homes are more expensive than existing ones (houses that have already been lived in), but that’s not always the case. In fact, exploring newly built homes can sometimes lead to more cost-effective options, especially today. Hard to believe, right? But the data doesn’t lie.
Here are two key reasons working with your agent to look into new home construction could help you find a more budget-friendly option.
Reason 1: Lower Median Prices for Newly Built Homes
The median sales price for newly built homes is lower than the median sales price for existing homes today. This might seem surprising, but it’s true according to the latest data from the Census and the National Association of Realtors (NAR):
Why is that? Builders are focused on building what they can sell. And right now, there’s a very real need for smaller and more affordable homes – so that’s what they’ve been bringing to the market. At the same time, there are also more newly built homes already on the market than there have been over the past few years, so builders are motivated to make sure they’re selling what they’ve got available before adding more.
Reason 2: Attractive Incentives from Home Builders
Another big reason to consider a newly built home is the range of incentives that many home builders are offering. Again, since builders are aiming to sell their current inventory, some are providing special deals to sweeten the pot for homebuyers. HousingWire explains today’s trend:
“Overall, the usage of sales incentives was up to 61% in June, compared to 59% in May.”
One of the most appealing incentives right now is how builders are able to offer competitive mortgage rates. They may also provide other incentives, such as covering closing costs, or offering free upgrades.
Why This Matters to You
Considering a newly built home could open up opportunities you hadn’t thought of before. With competitive pricing and attractive incentives, you might just find that a brand-new home is the most appealing option for you.
Bottom Line
Buying a home is a big decision, and it’s essential to consider all your options. By looking into newly built homes, you might find a perfect fit for your needs and your budget.
Let’s explore the possibilities together. If you have any questions or want to see what’s available, reach out to a local real estate agent.
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How the Economy Impacts Mortgage Rates
A Newly Built Home May Actually Be More Budget-Friendly
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