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Mortgage Rates

What Is Going on with Mortgage Rates?

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You may have heard mortgage rates are going to stay a bit higher for longer than originally expected. And if you’re wondering why, the answer lies in the latest economic data. Here’s a quick overview of what’s happening with mortgage rates and what experts say is ahead.

Economic Factors That Impact Mortgage Rates

When it comes to mortgage rates, things like the job market, the pace of inflation, consumer spending, geopolitical uncertainty, and more all have an impact. Another factor at play is the Federal Reserve (the Fed) and its decisions on monetary policy. And that’s what you may be hearing a lot about right now. Here’s why.

The Fed decided to start raising the Federal Funds Rate to try to slow down the economy (and inflation) in early 2022. That rate impacts how much it costs banks to borrow money from each other. It doesn’t determine mortgage rates, but mortgage rates do respond when this happens. And that’s when mortgage rates started to really climb.

And while there’s been a ton of headway seeing inflation come down since then, it still isn’t back to where the Fed wants it to be (2%). The graph below shows inflation since the spike in early 2022, and where we are now compared to their target rate:

No Caption Received

As the graph shows, we’re much closer to their goal of 2% inflation than we were in 2022 – but we’re not there yet. It’s even inched up a hair over the last 3 months – and that’s having an impact on the Fed’s plans. As Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, explains:

“Strong incoming economic and inflation data has caused the market to re-evaluate the path of monetary policy, leading to higher mortgage rates.”

Basically, long story short, inflation and its impact on the broader economy are going to be key moving forward. As Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, says:

It’s the longer-term outlook for economic growth and inflation that have the greatest bearing on the level and direction of mortgage rates. Inflation, inflation, inflation — that’s really the hub on the wheel.”

When Will Mortgage Rates Come Down?

Based on current market data, experts think inflation will be more under control and we still may see the Fed lower the Federal Funds Rate this year. It’ll just be later than originally expected. As Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), said in response to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision yesterday:

“The FOMC did not change the federal funds target at its May meeting, as incoming data regarding the strength of the economy and stubbornly high inflation have resulted in a shift in the timing of a first rate cut. We expect mortgage rates to drop later this year, but not as far or as fast as we previously had predicted.

In the simplest sense, what this says is that mortgage rates should still come down later this year. But timing can shift as new employment and economic data come in, geopolitical uncertainty remains, and more. This is one of the reasons it’s usually not a good strategy to try to time the market. An article in Bankrate gives buyers this advice:

“ . . . trying to time the market is generally a bad idea. If buying a house is the right move for you now, don’t stress about trends or economic outlooks.”

Bottom Line

If you have questions about what’s happening in the housing market and what that means for you, connect with a trusted real estate professional.

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For Sellers

What’s Motivating Homeowners To Move Right Now

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Over the past few years, some homeowners have decided to delay their move because they don’t want to sell and take on a higher mortgage rate on their next home. Maybe you’re thinking the same thing. And honestly, that’s no surprise. It’s a very common roadblock and is one of the biggest factors that’s kept the number of homes on the market so low for so long.

But a growing number of homeowners are deciding they just can’t wait any longer. Often, it’s because of personal or lifestyle change. As Redfin explains:

“Some homeowners are opting to bite the bullet and give up their low rate in order to move. Many are selling because a major life event like a job change, or divorce . . .”

If you’re weighing the decision to move, take a look at some of the top reasons others are choosing to sell. You might find those are reason enough for you to move now, too.

It’s Time for a Change

A new job in a different city, a desire to be closer to family, or simply wanting a change of scenery can all spark the need to sell.

Let’s say you’ve landed a great job offer that requires relocating, listing your current home quickly may be the next logical step.

There’s Just Not Enough Space in Your Current House

Sometimes, your current home just doesn’t fit your lifestyle anymore. A growing family, the need for a home office, or more room for entertaining can all drive the decision to upgrade to a larger space.

As an example, if you live in a condo and have a baby on the way, selling might be the next best move so you can find a larger home that suits your needs.

Retirement or Wanting To Downsize

On the flip side, some homeowners are ready to downsize. This could be due to children moving out, retirement, or simply wanting less to maintain.

If you’re newly retired and dreaming of a simpler lifestyle, downsizing to a smaller home could free up both time and resources to enjoy this new chapter of life.

Changes in Relationship Status

Big changes like divorce, separation, or marriage often lead to a need for new living arrangements.

If you just went through a divorce, selling the house you once shared may allow both of you to move forward and find a living situation that works better for you now.

Health and Mobility Needs

Health concerns, especially those that affect mobility, can also drive the decision to sell. A home that once worked well might no longer suit your needs.

If this sounds like your experience right now, selling your current home to move into a more accessible space, or even using the proceeds for assisted living, could significantly improve your quality of life.

Bottom Line

Selling your home isn’t just about market conditions or mortgage rates—it’s also about making the best decision for your lifestyle and future. As Bankrate says:

“Deciding whether it’s the right time to sell your home is a very personal choice. There are numerous important questions to consider, both financial and lifestyle-based . . . Your future plans and goals should be a significant part of the equation.”

 

If a major life change has you thinking about moving, now might still be the right time to sell. Work with a trusted real estate professional to help you navigate the process.

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Economy

What To Look For From This Week’s Fed Meeting

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You may be hearing a lot of talk about the Federal Reserve (the Fed) and how their actions will impact the housing market right now. Here’s why.

The Fed meets again this week to decide the next step with the Federal Funds Rate. That’s how much it costs banks to borrow from each other. Now, that’s not the same thing as setting mortgage rates, but mortgage rates can be influenced through this process. And if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, you may be wondering about the downstream impact and when mortgage rates will come down.

Here’s a quick rundown of what you need to know to help you anticipate what’ll happen next. The Fed’s decisions are guided by these three key economic indicators:

  1. The Direction of Inflation
  2. How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding
  3. The Unemployment Rate

Let’s take a look at each one.

1. The Direction of Inflation

You’ve likely noticed prices for everyday goods and services seem to be higher each time you make a purchase at the store. That’s because of inflation – and the Fed wants to see that number come back down so it’s closer to their 2% target.

Right now, it’s still higher than that. But despite a little volatility, inflation has generally been moving in the right direction. It gradually came down over the past two years, and is holding fairly steady right now (see graph below):

a graph of a graph with textThe path of inflation – though still not at their target rate – is a big part of the reason why the Fed will likely lower the Fed Funds Rate again this week to make borrowing less expensive, while still ensuring the economy continues to grow.

2. How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding

The Fed is also keeping an eye on how many new jobs are added to the economy each month. They want job growth to slow down a bit before they cut the Federal Funds Rate further. When fewer jobs are created, it shows the economy is still doing well, but gradually cooling off—exactly what they’re aiming for. And that’s what’s happening right now. Reuters says:

“Any doubts the Federal Reserve will go ahead with an interest-rate cut . . . fell away on Friday after a government report showed U.S. employers added fewer workers in October than in any month since December 2020.”

Employers are still hiring, but just not as many positions right now. This shows the job market is starting to slow down after running hot for a while, which is what the Fed wants to see.

3. The Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate shows the percentage of people who want jobs but can’t find them. A low unemployment rate means most people are working, which is great. However, it can push inflation higher because more people working means more spending—and that makes prices go up.

Many economists consider any unemployment rate below 5% to be as close to full employment as is realistically possible. In the most recent report, unemployment is sitting at 4.1% (see graph below):

a graph of a number of peopleUnemployment this low shows the labor market is still strong even as fewer jobs were added to the economy. That’s the balance the Fed is looking for.

What Does This Mean Going Forward?

Overall, the economy is headed in the direction the Fed wants to see – and that’s why experts say they will likely cut the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter of a percentage point this week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

If that expectation ends up being correct, that could pave the way for mortgage rates to come down too. But that doesn’t mean they’ll fall immediately. It will take some time. Remember, the Fed doesn’t determine mortgage rates. Forecasts show mortgage rates will ease more gradually over the course of the next year as long as these economic indicators continue to move in the right direction and the Fed can continue their Federal Funds rate cuts through 2025.

But a change in any one of the factors mentioned here could cause a shift in the market and in the Fed’s actions in the days and months ahead. So, brace for some volatility, and for mortgage rates to respond along the way. As Ralph McLaughlin, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, notes:

“The trajectory of rates over the coming months will be largely dependent on three key factors: (1) the performance of the labor market, (2) the outcome of the presidential election, and (3) any possible reemergence of inflationary pressure. While volatility has been the theme of mortgage rates over the past several months, we expect stability to reemerge towards the end of November and into early December.”

Bottom Line

While the Fed’s actions play a part, economic data and market conditions are what really drive mortgage rates. As we move through the rest of 2024 and 2025, expect rates to stabilize or decline gradually, offering more certainty in what has been a volatile market. 

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Economy

Q&A: How Do Presidential Elections Impact the Housing Market?

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a house with a question and answer

Some Highlights

  • Even if you’re not looking to move right away, you may have questions about how the election will impact the housing market.
  • When we look at historical trends, combined with what’s happening right now, we can find your answers. Based on historical data, mortgage rates decrease in the months before and home prices and sales increase the year after the election.
  • The facts show Presidential elections only have a small and temporary impact on the housing market.

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The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.