After several years of high mortgage rates and hesitation from buyers, momentum is quietly building beneath the surface of the housing market. Sellers are reappearing. Buyers are re-engaging. And for the first time in what feels like forever, there’s movement happening again.

No, it’s not a surge. But it is a shift – and it’s one that could set the stage for a stronger year in 2026.

So, what’s driving the comeback? Here are three big trends that are slowly breathing life back into the housing market right now.

1. Mortgage Rates Have Been Coming Down

Mortgage rates are always going to have their ups and downs – that’s just how rates work. Especially with the general economic uncertainty right now, some volatility is to be expected. But, if you zoom out, it’s the larger trend that really matters most.

And overall, rates have been trending down for most of this year (see graph below):

And in just the last few months, we’ve seen the best rates of 2025. According to Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac:

“On a median-priced home, this could allow a homebuyer to save thousands annually compared to earlier this year, showing that affordability is slowly improving.”

Here’s why that matters for you. This shift changes what you can actually afford. It means lower borrowing costs and more buying power. Take this as an example.

Data from Redfin shows a buyer with a $3,000 monthly budget can now afford roughly $25,000 more home than they could one year ago. That’s a big deal. And it’s just one of the reasons why activity is picking up.

2. More Homeowners Are Ready To Sell

For a while, many homeowners stayed put because they didn’t want to give up their low mortgage rate. That “lock-in effect” kept inventory tight. And while plenty of homeowners are still staying where they are today, the number of rate-locked homeowners is starting to ease as rates come down. Life changes are becoming a bigger part of what’s driving more people to move, and that’s opening up more inventory.

Data from Realtor.com shows just how much the number of homes for sale has grown. And the really interesting part is that the market is approaching levels that haven’t been seen for the past six years (see the blue on the graph below):

That return to more normal inventory levels is a really good thing. It gives buyers more options than they’ve had in years. And it’s helping to bring the market closer to balance.

3. More Buyers Are Re-Entering the Market

And it’s not just sellers making moves. With more options and slightly better affordability, buyers are getting back in the game, too. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reports purchase applications are up compared to last year, a clear signal that demand is building again (see graph below):

And experts think this momentum will continue. Economists from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) all forecast moderate sales growth going into 2026.

Now, this recovery won’t happen overnight. It’s not a flood of activity. But it is the start of steady improvement going into 2026. And that’s something a lot of people have been waiting for.

Bottom Line

After several slower-than-normal years, the market is finally starting to turn a corner. Declining mortgage rates, more listings, and growing buyer activity all point to a market gaining real traction.

Connect with a local real estate agent about what’s changing and how you can make the most of it in 2026.

A lot of buyers are stuck in “wait and see” mode right now. They’re watching rates hover a little above 6% and thinking, I’ll buy once they hit the 5s. Because who doesn’t want a better rate?

But here’s the thing: that 5.99% number might not save you as much as you think.

Affordability is still a challenge. There’s no question about that. But the market has given savvy buyers a head start. Mortgage rates have already come down over the past few months. And the drop we’ve seen saves you more than you’d think.

How Much You’ve Already Saved, Without Realizing It

Let’s put some real numbers to it. Rates peaked for the year in May when they inched above 7%. But since then, they’ve been slowly declining. Now, they’re sitting in the low 6s. And while that may not sound like a big deal, that change translates to real dollars.

According to data coming out of Redfin, the typical monthly payment on a $400,000 home is already down almost $400 since May.

That means if you’re buying a home now, you’re saving hundreds of dollars every month compared to what you would have been able to get earlier this spring. That’s real money that makes a real difference for buyers who paused their plans because they thought homeownership was out of reach.

And while it may be tempting to wait even longer to see bigger savings, that’s a gamble that could cost you. Here’s why.

Where Experts Say Rates Are Headed

For starters, most experts say mortgage rates are likely to stay pretty much where we are today throughout 2026. So, there’s no guarantee we’ll see a rate much lower than what we have now. Only one expert forecaster is saying rates could fall into the upper 5s next year (see graph below): 

And even if rates do dip below 6%, the extra savings you’re holding out for won’t move the needle as much as you might expect.

The Real Math Behind a 5.99% Rate

Let’s break it down. If rates come down to 5.99% from where they’ve been lately that’s a difference of only about $80 a month on an average priced home – give or take a bit based on your price point and the rate your lender quotes you (see chart below):

Eighty dollars. That’s it. And for the typical family, that’s about one dinner out (or one dinner in, if you have it delivered). That’s not enough to change the game for most buyers. But the savings of nearly $400 we already have compared to when you paused your search in the spring? That might be. 

So, the question to ask yourself is this:

Is an extra $80 savings really worth the wait?

Because while you’re holding out for that small dip, the bigger opportunity might be slipping away.

When Rates Fall, Competition Follows

Right now, you have more homes to choose from, sellers who are ready to negotiate to get a deal done, and fewer buyers to compete with. But once rates fall below 6%, buyer mindsets will shift and all of that will change.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports that if rates hit 6%, about 5.5 million more households will be able to afford the median-priced home. Even if only a small fraction of them decide to buy, that could mean hundreds of thousands of buyers getting back into the market.

That creates more competition for you, which would push home prices even higher – maybe high enough to cancel out the extra savings you waited for.

So, if you’re waiting for rates below 6%, just keep in mind… that extra $80 may not be worth it in the grand scheme of things.

Bottom Line

You don’t have to wait for 5.99%. You have the chance to move (and save) right now. So, ask yourself: Would you let $80 hold you back from buying a home?

If you find a home you love and the math makes sense, getting ahead may be the best strategy. Connect with an agent or lender to run your numbers. That way you can see what you’re working with in your market.

If you’ve seen headlines or social posts calling for a housing crash, it’s easy to wonder if home values are about to take a hit. But here’s the simple truth.

The data doesn’t point to a crash. It points to slow, continued growth.

And sure, it’s going to vary by local area. Some markets will see prices rise more than others. And some may even see small, short-term declines. But the big picture is: home prices are expected to rise nationally, not fall, over the next 5 years.

The Real Story Is in the Expert Forecasts

In the Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae, each quarter over 100 leading housing market experts weigh in on where they project home prices will go from here. And in the report that was just released, the experts agree prices are projected to climb nationally through at least 2029 (see graph below):

Here’s how to read this visual. Each bar in that graph shows an increase, not a loss. It’s just that the anticipated pace of that appreciation varies year-to-year.

And to further drive this home, let’s look at another view of where prices are and where they’re expected to go. In this version, the expert forecasts are broken into 3 categories: the overall average, the most optimistic projections, and the most pessimistic projections (see chart below):

Notice how even the most pessimistic forecasters say we’ll see prices rise by almost 5% over the next few years.

• Overall, prices are expected to rise about 15% from now through the end of 2029.
• The optimists say we’ll beat that and see a roughly 26% increase.
• And even the pessimists anticipate prices will go up by 5% during that period.

What sticks out the most? None of these groups who study the market are forecasting a crash, or even a decline, over the next 5 years.

How This Compares to “Normal” for the Market

Now, focus back on the first graph. The projections call for 2-3.5% price increases in each of the next five years. For context, the average rate of appreciation for the last 25 years was closer to 4-5% annually.

So, while that’s slightly below the historical average, it’s much more sustainable and typical than where the market was in 2020, 2021, and 2022.

Back then, prices rose too much, too fast based on record-low supply and record-high demand. Some places even saw prices climb by 15-20%.

So, while it may feel like prices are stalling compared to those pandemic-era surges, what’s really happening is that the market is finally finding balance again.

Why Prices Aren’t Expected To Crash

A lot of the chatter about home prices today is based on that rapid rise and the old saying that what goes up, must come down. But historically, that’s not really true. Home prices almost always rise.

And the main reason we’re not heading for a repeat of 2008 is simple: supply and demand.

Even though affordability challenges have made it harder for some people to buy over the past few years, there still aren’t enough homes for everyone who wants one. And that ongoing shortage is keeping upward pressure on prices nationally. 

That’s why experts across the board can confidently agree: we’re not headed for a price collapse, but for steady, long-term appreciation.

And just in case it’s the economy that’s got you worried, remember this. Over the past 50 years, there have been plenty of economic events that have impacted the market. And one thing that’s consistently been true throughout time is the housing market always recovers. And we’re coming through that turn right now and going into a recovery.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been waiting to buy or sell because you’re worried about a crash, it’s time to look at the data – not the headlines.

The question isn’t if home prices will rise, it’s by how much.

Connect with an agent who can show you what’s happening in your local market and what these forecasts mean for your next move.