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First-Time Buyers

The Five-Year Rule for Home Price Perspective

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Headlines are saying home prices are starting to dip in some markets. And if you’re beginning to second guess your plans based on what you’re hearing in the media, here’s what you need to know.

It’s true that a few metros are seeing slight price drops. But don’t let that overshadow this simple truth. Home values almost always go up over time (see graph below):

a graph of a graph of salesWhile everyone remembers what happened around the housing crash of 2008, that was the exception – not the rule. It hadn’t happened before, and hasn’t since. There were many market dynamics that were drastically different back then, too. From relaxed lending standards to a lack of homeowner equity, and even a large oversupply of homes, it was very different from where the national housing market is today. So, every headline about prices slowing down, normalizing, or even dipping doesn’t need to trigger fear that another big crash is coming.

Here’s something that explains why short-term dips usually aren’t a long-term deal-breaker.

What’s the Five-Year Rule?

In real estate, you might hear talk about the five-year rule. The idea is that if you plan to own your home for at least five years, short-term dips in prices usually don’t hurt you much. That’s because home values almost always go up in the long run. Even if prices drop a bit for a year or two, they tend to bounce back (and then some) over time.

Take it from Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub:

“. . . there’s the ‘five-year rule of thumb’ in real estate—which suggests that most buyers can buffer themselves from mild short-term declines if they plan to own a property for at least that amount of time.”

What’s Happening in Today’s Market?

Here’s something else to put your mind at ease. Right now, most housing markets are still seeing home prices rise – just not as fast as they were a few years ago.

But in the major metros where prices are starting to cool off a little (the red bars in the graph below), the average drop is only about -2.9% since April 2024. That’s not a major decline like we saw back in 2008.

And when you look at the graph below, it’s clear that prices in most of those markets are up significantly compared to where they were five years ago (the blue bars). So, those homeowners are still ahead if they’ve been in their house for a few years or more (see graph below):

The Big Picture

Over the past 5 years, home prices have risen a staggering 55%, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). So, a small short-term dip isn’t a significant loss. Even if your city is one where they’re down 2% or so, you’re still up far more than that.

And if you break those 5-year gains down even further, using data from the FHFA, you’ll see home values are up in every single state over the last five years (see map below):

a map of the united statesThat’s why it’s important not to stress too much about what’s happening this month, or even this year. If you’re in it for the long haul (and most homeowners are) your home is likely to grow in value over time.

Bottom Line

Yes, prices can shift in the short term. But history shows that home values almost always go up over five years. So, whether you’re thinking of buying or selling, remember the five-year rule, and take comfort in the long view.

When you think about where you want to be in five years, how does owning a home fit into that picture?

Connect with an agent to discuss how to get there.

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Affordability

Affordability Has Improved in All 50 States

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For the past few years, affordability has been what’s stopped a lot of buyers in their tracks. Maybe it stopped you, too.

At some point you probably did the math, looked at the monthly payment, and decided to pause your search and wait for things to get better. But here’s something you may have missed while you’ve been sitting on the sidelines.

Over the last year, housing affordability has improved in all 50 states. Yes, you read that right. It’s gotten better in every single state.

That’s based on new research coming out of First American. And while housing is still fairly expensive compared to historical standards, the pressure buyers felt over the last few years is finally starting to ease.

Some Areas Are Seeing Bigger Improvements

The first thing you need to know is that this isn’t just happening in one region or in a small handful of cities. The trend is happening almost everywhere.

Sure, individual states, cities, and even neighborhoods are going to vary – sometimes by a lot. But overall, more buyers are able to buy again. And in 48 of the top 50 metros, affordability has improved over the past year.

That same research breaks down which cities are seeing the biggest gains:

a house with palm trees and brick drivewayJust in case you’re wondering: why these areas? It’s simple. In many cases, it comes down to the number of homes for sale.

When buyers have more choices, it creates a healthier balance in the market and that can help bring affordability back within reach. With homes up for grabs, it opens the door a bit wider for buyers to negotiate with sellers for credits, price cuts, and more. And it gives you more chances to find a house that works for your needs and budget.

It may make more of a difference than you think.

None of this means affordability challenges have completely disappeared. Buying a home is still a big financial decision. But the trend is moving in a direction many buyers have been waiting for.

As Chen Zhao, Head of Economic Research at Redfin, puts it:

“The housing affordability crisis is showing signs of easing . . . opening the door for more Americans to make the jump to homeownership.”

Bottom Line

If you were holding off on buying, this could be exactly the signal you’ve been waiting so long for. To find out how much affordability’s improved in your area, connect with a local real estate agent.

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Agent Value

3 Must-Do’s for First-Time Home Buyers

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Buying your first home is exciting, but it can also be a little nerve-wrecking because it’s something you’ve never done before. And trying to think of everything you need to do can feel like a lot. But here’s the key.

You don’t have to figure everything out on your own. And you don’t have to do it all at once. Just tackle it one thing at a time.

Here’s a simple list of 3 main things you should focus on to help you get started.

1. Assemble Your Team: Don’t Do This Alone

Buying a home is a team sport. And having the right professionals by your side can make a world of difference. Here’s who you need to find: 

  • A local real estate agent is your guide from the first showing to closing day. They’ll make sure you understand all the details along the way, so you feel confident in your decision.
  • A trusted lender will walk you through loan options, monthly payments, and what’s realistic for your situation. That information is something you’re going to want early on.

2. Prep Your Finances: Set the Foundation First

This is what determines what you can afford, how competitive you’ll be, and how confident you’ll feel when it’s time to make an offer. Here’s how to get ready: 

  • Check your credit score. Your credit score impacts the loan options you’ll qualify for and even the mortgage rate you’ll get. Knowing this number early gives you time to work on raising your score, if you want to.
  • Save for your down payment and closing costs. Most buyers focus on the down payment, but closing costs matter too. Having savings set aside for both helps you avoid last-minute stress and surprises.
  • Look into assistance programs. Many first-time buyers qualify for programs that’ll give their homebuying savings a boost. This can make buying possible sooner than you expect.
  • Talk to a lender about mortgage options. Fixed-rate, adjustable-rate, FHA, VA, and conventional loans all work differently. Understanding the options helps you choose what fits your goals best.
  • Get pre-approved. A pre-approval tells you what a lender would be willing to give you for your home loan. This’ll help you figure out your price range and set you up to move fast when the right home comes along.
  • Figure out your budget. Your mortgage is just one part of homeownership. Budgeting for your utilities, home insurance, and everyday expenses and maintenance will help make sure your payment feels comfortable, not stressful.

3. Gather Your Documents: Save Time (and Stress)

When you’re officially ready to kick off the buying process, lenders are going to need to verify your income, assets, and financial history. Having these documents ready-to-go upfront can speed up the process and reduce back-and-forth. Here’s what Bankrate says you need to prep:

  • W-2s and tax documents (past 2 years). These show income stability and help lenders verify your earnings over time.
  • Recent pay stubs (generally the past 1–2 months). Pay stubs confirm your current income and employment status.
  • Bank statements (past 2–3 months). These show your savings, spending patterns, and where your down payment funds are coming from.
  • Investment account statements (past 2-3 months). If you’re using investments as part of your financial picture, lenders may ask for these as well.
  • Copy of your driver’s license. This verifies your identity and is required for loan processing.
  • Residential history (past 2 years). Lenders use this to confirm stability and background information.
  • Statements for any outstanding debts (past 2 months). Student loans, auto loans, and credit cards affect your debt-to-income ratio, so lenders will want to know about them.
  • Proof of supplemental income. Bonuses, commissions, side work, or child support may count toward your income if documented properly.

Note: the exact time frames and list of documents may vary lender to lender. This is just a general rule of thumb to help you get the ball rolling.

Bottom Line

Buying your first home doesn’t mean you have to have everything figured out. It just requires a plan.

If you start with your finances, organize your documents, and surround yourself with the right people, you’ll be in great shape when the time comes to make a move.

And if you want more information on anything in this list or just need help getting started, reach out to an agent.

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Affordability

Should You Wait for Lower Rates?

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Mortgage rates have already dropped into the upper 5s twice this year. But after just a few days, they ticked back up into the low 6% range. If you saw that and thought, “Great. I missed it,” you’re not the only one.

A lot of buyers are treating the 5s like some kind of magic number. As if moving from 6.1% to 5.99% suddenly changes everything. And from a mindset perspective, it does feel different.

But here’s the part most people don’t actually run the math on.

The Payment Difference Isn’t What You Think

Let’s say you’re looking at a $500,000 home loan. At 6.1%, generally speaking, your principal and interest payment is roughly $3,030 per month. At 5.9%, it’s about $2,966 per month.

That’s a difference of only $64 a month.

Not $300.

Not $500.

Sixty dollars.

Let that sink in for just a moment.

a blue and green rectangular box with white textYes, over time that $64 a month can add up. But it’s far from the dramatic swing many buyers imagine when they say they’re “waiting for the 5s.”

The psychological impact of seeing a 5 in front of your rate can feel big. The financial impact? It might be something you don’t even notice when it’s all said and done.

Experts Aren’t Predicting a Big Drop

Another important piece to think about: most housing economists aren’t forecasting a long-term return to 5% territory anytime soon.

While rates will move up and down, likely hitting the high 5s here and there, the broader expectation is for mortgage rates to hover in the low 6% range this year, not stay in the 5’s or decline much more.

a graph with numbers and linesWhile it certainly could happen, the reality is, waiting for a deep drop may not deliver the payoff you’re hoping for, if you’re holding out

The Bigger Question to Ask

Instead of asking, “Did I miss the 5s?” A better question is: “Does today’s payment work for me?” 

If the monthly payment fits comfortably in your budget, and you’ve found a home that meets your needs, the difference between 6.1% and 5.9% likely isn’t the deciding factor. It might be one of them, but it shouldn’t be everything. 

And remember, mortgage rates aren’t permanent. If they drop meaningfully later, refinancing is always an option. But you can’t refinance a home you didn’t buy.

Waiting Might Feel Safe, But It Isn’t Always Strategic

It’s natural to want the best possible rate. Everyone does. But sometimes buyers overestimate how much a rate in the high 5s will change things in today’s market.

Don’t miss the fact that rates have already come down. A year ago, they were in the 7s. Now? They’re hovering in the low 6s. And for a lot of people, that percentage point difference that’s already here is the real game changer.

If you paused your plans when rates were higher, now may be the right time to re-run your numbers. Not because rates are “perfect.” But because the monthly payment math might work better than you think, even with rates in the low 6s. 

Before assuming you’ve missed your moment, take another look at the numbers.

You may find it never disappeared.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for that magic five number for rates, that strategy may not pay off as much as you’d expect.

Connect with an agent or lender so you can double check the math at your price point. You may realize payments are already within your range.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.