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Will Surging Unemployment Crush Home Sales?

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Ten million Americans lost their jobs over the last two weeks. The next announced unemployment rate on May 8th is expected to be in the double digits. Because the health crisis brought the economy to a screeching halt, many are feeling a personal financial crisis. James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, explained that the government is trying to find ways to assist those who have lost their jobs and the companies which were forced to close (think: your neighborhood restaurant). In a recent interview he said:

“This is a planned, organized partial shutdown of the U.S. economy in the second quarter. The overall goal is to keep everyone, households and businesses, whole.”

That’s promising, but we’re still uncertain as to when the recently unemployed will be able to return to work.

Another concern: how badly will the U.S. economy be damaged if people can’t buy homes?

A new concern is whether the high number of unemployed Americans will cause the residential real estate market to crash, putting a greater strain on the economy and leading to even more job losses. The housing industry is a major piece of the overall economy in this country.

Chris Herbert, Managing Director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, in a post titled Responding to the Covid-19 Pandemic, addressed the toll this crisis will have on our nation, explaining:

“Housing is a foundational element of every person’s well-being. And with nearly a fifth of US gross domestic product rooted in housing-related expenditures, it is also critical to the well-being of our broader economy.”

How has the unemployment rate affected home sales in the past?

It’s logical to think there would be a direct correlation between the unemployment rate and home sales: as the unemployment rate went up, home sales would go down, and when the unemployment rate went down, home sales would go up.

However, research reviewing the last thirty years doesn’t show that direct relationship, as noted in the graph below. The blue and grey bars represent home sales, while the yellow line is the unemployment rate. Take a look at numbers 1 through 4:Will Surging Unemployment Crush Home Sales? | Simplifying The Market

  1. The unemployment rate was rising between 1992-1993, yet home sales increased.
  2. The unemployment rate was rising between 2001-2003, and home sales increased.
  3. The unemployment rate was rising between 2007-2010, and home sales significantly decreased.
  4. The unemployment rate was falling continuously between 2015-2019, and home sales remained relatively flat.

The impact of the unemployment rate on home sales doesn’t seem to be as strong as we may have thought.

Isn’t this time different?

Yes. There is no doubt the country hasn’t seen job losses this quickly in almost one hundred years. How bad could it get? Goldman Sachs projects the unemployment rate to be 15% in the third quarter of 2020, flattening to single digits by the fourth quarter of this year, and then just over 6% percent by the fourth quarter of 2021. Not ideal for the housing industry, but manageable.

How does this compare to the other financial crises?

Some believe this is going to be reminiscent of The Great Depression. From the standpoint of unemployment rates alone (the only thing this article addresses), it does not compare. Here are the unemployment rates during the Great Depression, the Great Recession, and the projected rates moving forward:Will Surging Unemployment Crush Home Sales? | Simplifying The Market

Bottom Line

We’ve given you the facts as we know them. The housing market will have challenges this year. However, with the help being given to those who have lost their jobs and the fact that we’re looking at a quick recovery for the economy after we address the health problem, the housing industry should be fine in the long term. Stay safe.

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Affordability

Could Co-Buying Be the Answer for Some First-Time Buyers?

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For a lot of would-be first-time buyers, affordability is the thing that’s standing in the way. But some buyers are getting creative and finding a way to still make the numbers work – and that’s through co-buying.

The Dream Is Still Alive. The Math Just Isn’t Working for Everyone.

Young people haven’t given up on the dream of owning a home – not even close. According to FirstHome IQ, homeownership still ranks among the top life goals for the next generation.

The problem? 73% of Gen Z and millennial buyers cite affordability as the reason for not making homeownership a priority. And it shows. First-time buyers now make up just 21% of all home purchases, the lowest share since the National Association of Realtors (NAR) started tracking the data in 1981.

But still, some buyers are making it happen. And a portion of them are turning to co-buying to get their foot in the door.

So, What’s Co-Buying?

Co-buying means purchasing a home with someone else, like a friend, sibling, or unmarried partner. You combine incomes, split the down payment, and share monthly costs. For some people, it’s a creative way to turn “someday” into a concrete move-in date that’s just around the corner.

And it’s catching on fast, just look at where things stand today. According to CoBuy.io, 64 million Americans now co-own a home with someone they’re not married to. In fact, 31.5% of home purchases involve co-buyers (see graph below):

Why It Works

Here are just a few of the top reasons buyers are going this route, according to NerdWallet:

  • Quicker path to homeownership: If owning a home is a serious goal for you, buying with someone else can help make that reality on a shorter timeline. Two or more people can save up a down payment a lot faster than one. That’s less time waiting and more time building equity in a place that’s yours.
  • More purchasing power: With multiple incomes going toward the home purchase, you might be able to afford a nicer home or live in a more popular neighborhood. Sometimes teaming up means getting the home you actually want, not just the one you can barely afford on your own.
  • Easier loan qualification: Added income from more than one buyer can also help with your debt-to-income (DTI) ratio, which the lender will calculate based on all the borrowers.
  • Lower housing costs: Splitting up a mortgage payment multiple ways could maybe even make owning less expensive than renting. Plus, sharing costs can make repairs or renovations more manageable, too.

Things To Keep in Mind

If you’re considering going this route, there are some things you’ll want to think over. For starters, co-buying works best with people you trust and share financial goals with. So, before moving forward, make sure everyone agrees on how costs are split, who handles what, and what happens if one person wants to sell down the road.

That’s why a written co-ownership agreement can be a smart move. It keeps everyone on the same page and helps avoid headaches down the line. Think of it less like a legal formality and more like a game plan for your new investment.

Bottom Line

Affordability challenges are real, but they don’t have to mean waiting indefinitely. Co-buying is helping some first-time buyers stop waiting and start putting down roots.

If you’re curious whether it could work for your situation, talk with a local real estate agent. Reach out today and figure out your path to homeownership together.

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Buying Tips

4 Ways To Give Your Offer an Edge This Spring

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Looking to buy a home this season? Here’s what you should know. 

Buyers have more leverage today than they’ve had in years. There are more homes to choose from and, in many areas, sellers are more open to negotiation. 

But that doesn’t mean competition is gone completely. These days, it varies a lot depending on where you’re hoping to move. 

If you’re buying in a popular neighborhood, or in a market where there aren’t many homes for sale, you may still find yourself competing with another buyer.

And that’s especially true in the Spring. Here’s how to stay one step ahead of any competition this season.

Why Your Best Offer Still Matters This Spring

According to experts at Zillow and Realtor.com, Spring is one of the busiest times of year to buy a home.

That’s because many buyers want to move now so they can settle in before the next school year. And when more buyers enter the market, competition naturally picks up. 

So, depending on where you’re buying, you may still need to move quickly and make a strong offer, even though the market overall has moderated. And that’s especially true if you find a home you really love.

This is what you need to know to make your offer stand out.

1. Lead with a Strong, Realistic Offer

It’s tempting to start low and negotiate up. And in some markets, that strategy can work. But if a home is priced well and getting attention, lowballing could hurt your chances.

Instead, focus on making an offer that reflects your local market. As Bankrate explains:

“There is no magic formula for an optimal home offer. Any offer will be heavily dependent on asking price and local market conditions . . . Your real estate agent will know the local market well and can advise what a competitive — but fair — offer will look like in your area.

The goal is to make an offer that makes sense for you and stands out to the seller.  

2. Have a Plan for Competing Offers

If you’ve fallen in love with a home, it’s important to have a plan in case there’s competition from another buyer. One strategy your agent may discuss with you is an escalation clause, which Investopedia explains like this:  

An escalation clause is a way to automatically escalate your bid by a certain dollar amount, up to a certain ceiling, to compete with other bids.

The key is knowing your budget and sticking to it. You don’t want to lose out over a small difference – and this can help prevent that. But you also don’t want to overpay.

Keep in mind that if the appraisal comes in lower than your offer, you may have to make up the difference out of pocket. Your agent can help you weigh those risks and determine the best approach for your situation.

3. Keep Your Offer Clean

Price matters. But sellers also look closely at your offer’s terms. In some cases, a simpler, cleaner offer can stand out – even if it’s not the highest. As Redfin says:

Sellers tend to want clean, straightforward offers with minimal strings attached. Keep your requests simple and focus on the essentials.

Your agent can help you prioritize what matters most, so you’re not giving up things you need, while still making your offer as appealing as possible.

4. Be Flexible Where You Can

Sometimes, what helps your offer the most is understanding what matters to the seller. NerdWallet explains:

As you prepare an offer, you tend to focus on what the seller has (a house) and what you want (their house). But you’ll gain a competitive edge by viewing the transaction from the seller’s eyes: What does the seller want?”

Does the seller need extra time to move out? Or do they want to move as soon as possible? Your agent can talk with the seller’s agent to find out what matters most. Flexibility here can make a big difference in how your offer is received.

Bottom Line

Today’s market may be balancing out, but strong offers still matter – especially during the busy Spring season.

Working with a local agent can help you understand your market and put together an offer that stands out when it matters most.

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Affordability

Think You Have To Put 20% Down? Most First-Time Homebuyers Don’t.

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According to Google Trends, online searches for down payment information recently hit an all-time high. And that’s a clear sign more buyers are trying to figure out what they really need to save before making a move (see graph below):

a graph of a line graphIf you’re wondering the same thing, you can always turn to the internet for answers. But a lot of the time, it’s better to ask a local expert. Because here’s what a pro would tell you.

The 20% Down Payment Myth

The idea that you need 20% down to buy a home is one of the biggest misconceptions around the homebuying process. And the data debunks the myth.

While there are benefits to putting that much money down, most first-time buyers put down far less.

Here’s why. Unless it’s stated by your lender, you typically don’t have to have a 20% down payment. There are even some loan options designed to help you get into a home with a much smaller upfront cost. As the Mortgage Reports explains:

“The amount you need to put down will depend on a variety of factors, including the loan type and your financial goals. If you don’t have a large down payment saved up, don’t worry—there are plenty of options available, and you don’t need to put down the traditional 20% . . . many homebuyers are able to secure a home with as little as 3% or even no down payment at all . . .

For example, FHA loans allow down payments as low as 3.5%, while VA and USDA loans offer zero down payment options for qualified applicants, like Veterans.

And those options are just one reason so many first-time buyers are able to buy without a 20% down payment.

What Buyers Are Actually Putting Down

So, if buyers aren’t doing 20%, how much do they actually put down?

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the median down payment for first-time homebuyers is only 10%. That’s half of what you probably expected.

a diagram of a pie chartThat means if you’re aiming to save 20% because you think you have to, you may be setting a timeline that’s longer than necessary.  

And here’s some more good news. It’s not only that you may be able to buy with less money down than you thought, but there are also options to help you get to your down payment goal even faster.

Why You Should Look into Down Payment Assistance Programs

There are a lot of programs designed to help you save for a down payment – and they can make a big difference in how fast you hit your savings target. Unfortunately, buyers don’t realize how many there are, or that they may qualify for help.

Research from Realtor.com shows almost 80% of first-time homebuyers qualify for down payment assistance (DPA), but only 13% actually use it (see chart below)

a blue and orange pie chartAnd that’s another big miss holding would-be buyers like you back.

In the U.S., there are over 2,600 homeownership programs available, many offering significant financial support. As Down Payment Resource shares:

With an average benefit of $18,000, down payment assistance (DPA) remains one of the most essential tools for addressing the nation’s affordability challenges. Programs continue to expand in scope, serving a broader range of incomes, property types and borrower needs, including first-generation, military and repeat buyers.

Imagine how much further your savings could go with an extra $18,000 you can use to buy. In some cases, you may even be able to stack multiple programs, giving what you’ve saved an even bigger boost.

Bottom Line

The simple truth is: most first-time buyers don’t put 20% down. And if you’ve been waiting to buy until you have that saved, you may be setting a timeline that’s longer than necessary.

To find out what you really need to save and if you qualify for any help, connect with a trusted lender who can walk you through your options. You may be able to buy sooner than you thought.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.