For Buyers
Will Surging Unemployment Crush Home Sales?
Ten million Americans lost their jobs over the last two weeks. The next announced unemployment rate on May 8th is expected to be in the double digits. Because the health crisis brought the economy to a screeching halt, many are feeling a personal financial crisis. James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, explained that the government is trying to find ways to assist those who have lost their jobs and the companies which were forced to close (think: your neighborhood restaurant). In a recent interview he said:
“This is a planned, organized partial shutdown of the U.S. economy in the second quarter. The overall goal is to keep everyone, households and businesses, whole.”
That’s promising, but we’re still uncertain as to when the recently unemployed will be able to return to work.
Another concern: how badly will the U.S. economy be damaged if people can’t buy homes?
A new concern is whether the high number of unemployed Americans will cause the residential real estate market to crash, putting a greater strain on the economy and leading to even more job losses. The housing industry is a major piece of the overall economy in this country.
Chris Herbert, Managing Director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, in a post titled Responding to the Covid-19 Pandemic, addressed the toll this crisis will have on our nation, explaining:
“Housing is a foundational element of every person’s well-being. And with nearly a fifth of US gross domestic product rooted in housing-related expenditures, it is also critical to the well-being of our broader economy.”
How has the unemployment rate affected home sales in the past?
It’s logical to think there would be a direct correlation between the unemployment rate and home sales: as the unemployment rate went up, home sales would go down, and when the unemployment rate went down, home sales would go up.
However, research reviewing the last thirty years doesn’t show that direct relationship, as noted in the graph below. The blue and grey bars represent home sales, while the yellow line is the unemployment rate. Take a look at numbers 1 through 4:
- The unemployment rate was rising between 1992-1993, yet home sales increased.
- The unemployment rate was rising between 2001-2003, and home sales increased.
- The unemployment rate was rising between 2007-2010, and home sales significantly decreased.
- The unemployment rate was falling continuously between 2015-2019, and home sales remained relatively flat.
The impact of the unemployment rate on home sales doesn’t seem to be as strong as we may have thought.
Isn’t this time different?
Yes. There is no doubt the country hasn’t seen job losses this quickly in almost one hundred years. How bad could it get? Goldman Sachs projects the unemployment rate to be 15% in the third quarter of 2020, flattening to single digits by the fourth quarter of this year, and then just over 6% percent by the fourth quarter of 2021. Not ideal for the housing industry, but manageable.
How does this compare to the other financial crises?
Some believe this is going to be reminiscent of The Great Depression. From the standpoint of unemployment rates alone (the only thing this article addresses), it does not compare. Here are the unemployment rates during the Great Depression, the Great Recession, and the projected rates moving forward:
Bottom Line
We’ve given you the facts as we know them. The housing market will have challenges this year. However, with the help being given to those who have lost their jobs and the fact that we’re looking at a quick recovery for the economy after we address the health problem, the housing industry should be fine in the long term. Stay safe.
Some Highlights
- Having a hard time finding a home in your budget? Builders may have a solution that can help.
- Builders are shifting their attention to what buyers want most right now – smaller, more affordable homes.
- If you want to see what’s available locally and in other areas nearby, connect with an agent to explore your options together.
Ever thought about living in the same house with your grandparents, parents, or other loved ones? You’re not alone. A lot of people are choosing to buy multi-generational homes where everyone can live together. Let’s check out why they think it’s a good idea to see if it might be a good fit for you, too.
Why People Are Choosing Multi-Generational Living
According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), here are just a few key reasons buyers opted for multi-generational homes over the past year (see graph below):
Two of the top reasons had to do with aging parents. 27% of buyers chose multi-generational homes so they could take care of their parents more easily. And 19% did it to spend more time with them. A lot of older adults want to age in place, and living in a home with loved ones can help them do just that. If your parents are hoping to do the same, but need a bit of help, a multi-generational home may be worth considering.
But buying a multi-generational home isn’t just about being close or taking care of the people you love—it can save you money, too. 22% of buyers say they picked a multi-generational home to cut down on costs, and 11% needed a bigger house multiple incomes could afford together.
Sharing costs like the mortgage and utilities can make owning a home more affordable. This is especially helpful for first-time homebuyers who might find it challenging to buy a place on their own in today’s market.
As Axios explains:
“Financial concerns and caregiving needs are two of the major reasons people live with their parents (and parents’ parents).”
How an Agent Is Key in Finding the Right Home for You
Looking for the perfect multi-generational home is a bit trickier than finding a regular house. You’ve got more people, which means more opinions and needs to think about. It’s kind of like putting together a puzzle where all the pieces need to fit perfectly.
If you’re into the idea of living with loved ones and want all the benefits that come with it, team up with a local real estate agent who can help you out.
Bottom Line
Whether you’re looking to save money or want to take care of your loved ones, buying a multi-generational home might be a good idea for you. If you want to find out more, talk to a local real estate agent.
If you’re thinking about buying a home, chances are you’ve got mortgage rates on your mind. You’ve heard about how they impact how much you can afford in your monthly mortgage payment, and you want to make sure you’re factoring that in as you plan your move.
The problem is, with all the headlines in the news about rates lately, it can be a bit overwhelming to sort through. Here’s a quick rundown of what you really need to know.
The Latest on Mortgage Rates
Rates have been volatile – that means they’re bouncing around a bit. And, you may be wondering, why? The answer is complicated because rates are affected by so many factors.
Things like what’s happening in the broader economy and the job market, the current inflation rate, decisions made by the Federal Reserve, and a whole lot more have an impact. Lately, all of those factors have come into play, and it’s caused the volatility we’ve seen. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, explains:
“Ongoing inflation deceleration, a slowing economy and even geopolitical uncertainty can contribute to lower mortgage rates. On the other hand, data that signals upside risk to inflation may result in higher rates.”
Professionals Can Help Make Sense of it All
While you could drill down into each of those things to really understand how they impact mortgage rates, that would be a lot of work. And when you’re already busy planning a move, taking on that much reading and research may feel a little overwhelming. Instead of spending your time on that, lean on the pros.
They coach people through market conditions all the time. They’ll focus on giving you a quick summary of any broader trends up or down, what experts say lies ahead, and how all of that impacts you.
Take this chart as an example. It gives you an idea of how mortgage rates impact your monthly payment when you buy a home. Imagine being able to make a payment between $2,500 and $2,600 work for your budget (principal and interest only). The green part in the chart shows payments in that range or lower based on varying mortgage rates (see chart below):
As you can see, even a small shift in rates can impact the loan amount you can afford if you want to stay within that target budget.
It’s tools and visuals like these that take everything that’s happening and show what it actually means for you. And only a pro has the knowledge and expertise needed to guide you through them.
You don’t need to be an expert on real estate or mortgage rates, you just need to have someone who is, by your side.
Bottom Line
Have questions about what’s going on in the housing market? Connect with a real estate professional to take what’s happening right now and figure out what it really means for you.
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