You want mortgage rates to fall – and they’ve started to. But is it going to last? And how low will they go?

Experts say there’s room for rates to come down even more over the next year. And one of the leading indicators to watch is the 10-year treasury yield. Here’s why.

The Link Between Mortgage Rates and the 10-Year Treasury Yield

For over 50 years, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has closely followed the movement of the 10-year treasury yield, which is a widely watched benchmark for long-term interest rates (see graph below):

When the treasury yield climbs, mortgage rates tend to follow. And when the yield falls, mortgage rates typically come down.

It’s been a predictable pattern for over 50 years. So predictable, that there’s a number experts consider normal for the gap between the two. It’s known as the spread, and it usually averages about 1.76 percentage points, or what you sometimes hear as 176 basis points.

The Spread Is Shrinking

Over the past couple of years, though, that spread has been much wider than normal. Why? Think of the spread as a measure of fear in the market. When there’s lingering uncertainty in the economy, the gap widens beyond its usual norm. That’s one of the reasons why mortgage rates have been unusually high over the past few years.

But here’s a sign for optimism. Even though there’s still some lingering uncertainty related to the economy, that spread is starting to shrink as the path forward is becoming clearer (see graph below):

And that opens the door for mortgage rates to come down even more. As a recent article from Redfin explains:

“A lower mortgage spread equals lower mortgage rates. If the spread continues to decline, mortgage rates could fall more than they already have.”

The 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Expected To Decline

It’s not just the spread, though. The 10-year treasury yield itself is also forecast to come down in the months ahead. So, when you combine a lower yield with a narrowing spread, you have two key forces potentially pushing mortgage rates down going into next year.

This long-term relationship is a big reason why you see experts currently projecting mortgage rates will ease, with a fringe possibility they’ll hit the upper 5s toward the end of next year.

Here’s how it works. Take the 10-year treasury yield, which is sitting at about 4.09% at the time this article is being written, and then add the average spread of 1.76%. From there, you’d expect mortgage rates to be around 5.85% (see graph below):

But remember, all of that can change as the economy shifts. And know for certain that there will be ups and downs along the way. 

How these dynamics play out will depend on where the economy, the job market, inflation, and more go from here. But the 2026 outlook is currently expected to be a gradual mortgage rate decline. And as of now, things are starting to move in the right direction.

Bottom Line

Keeping up with all of these shifts can feel overwhelming. That’s why having an experienced agent or lender on your side matters. They’ll do the heavy lifting for you.

If you want real-time updates on mortgage rates, reach out to a trusted agent or lender who can keep you in the loop and help you plan your next move.

If you’ve been watching from the sidelines, now’s the time to lean in. It’s officially the best time to buy this year. According to Realtor.com, this October will have the most buyer-friendly conditions of any month in 2025:

“By mid-October, buyers across much of the country may finally find the combination of inventory, pricing, and negotiating power they’ve been waiting for—a rare opportunity in a market that has been tight for most of the past decade.”

So, if you’re ready and able to buy right now, shooting for this month means you should see:

• More homes to choose from
• Less competition from other buyers
• More time to browse
• Better home prices
• Sellers who are more willing to negotiate

Just remember, every market is different. For most of the top 50 largest metros, that sweet spot falls in October. But the peak time to buy may be slightly earlier or later, depending on where you live. As Realtor.com explains:

“While Oct. 12–18 is the national “Best Week,” timing can shift depending on the local markets. . .”

Best Week To Buy for the Top 50 Largest Metro Areas

• Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA: September 28 – October 4
• Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX: September 28 – October 4
• Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD: October 12 – 18
• Birmingham, AL: October 19 – 25
• Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH: October 26 – November 1
• Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY: October 12 – 18
• Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC: November 2 – 8
• Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN: September 28 – October 4
• Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN: October 12 – 18
• Cleveland, OH: October 12 – 18
• Columbus, OH: October 12 – 18
• Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX: September 28 – October 4
• Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO: October 12 – 18
• Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI: October 12 – 18
• Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood, MI: September 28 – October 4
• Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT: September 21 – 27
• Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX: October 12 – 18
• Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, IN: October 26 – November 1
• Jacksonville, FL: October 26 – November 1
• Kansas City, MO-KS: October 12 – 18
• Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV: October 5 – 11
• Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA: October 12 – 18
• Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN: November 2 – 8
• Memphis, TN-MS-AR: September 21 – 27
• Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL: November 30 – December 6
• Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI: September 7 – 13
• Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI: October 26 – November 1
• Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN: October 12 – 18
• New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ: September 14 – 20
• Oklahoma City, OK: October 12 – 18
• Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL: October 26 – November 1
• Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD: September 7 – 13
• Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ: November 2 – 8
• Pittsburgh, PA: October 12 – 18
• Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA: October 26 – November 1
• Providence-Warwick, RI-MA: October 19 – 25
• Raleigh-Cary, NC: October 12 – 18
• Richmond, VA: October 26 – November 1
• Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA: September 28 – October 4
• Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA: October 12 – 18
• San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX: October 12 – 18
• San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA: October 12 – 18
• San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA: October 12 – 18
• San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA: October 19 – 25
• Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA: October 19 – 25
• St. Louis, MO-IL: October 12 – 18
• Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL: November 30 – December 6
• Tucson, AZ: October 12 – 18
• Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC: September 21 – 27
• Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV: October 12 – 18

What the Experts Are Saying

And Realtor.com isn’t the only one saying you’ve got an opportunity if you move now. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:

“Homebuyers are in the best position in more than five years to find the right home and negotiate for a better price. Current inventory is at its highest since May 2020, during the COVID lockdown.”

Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin, puts it like this:

“Nationally, now is a good time to buy, if you can afford it . . . with falling mortgage rates and significantly more inventory, buyers have an upper hand in negotiations.”

And NerdWallet says:

“This fall just might be the best window for home buyers in the past five years.”

How To Get Ready for this Golden Window

To make sure you’re ready to jump in whenever your market’s best time to buy arrives, talk to a local agent now. They’ll be able to give you more information on your market’s peak time, why it’s good for you, and the steps you’ll need to take to get ready.

Bottom Line

If you’re serious about buying, getting prepped for this October window is a smart play.

Want help lining up your strategy? Have a quick conversation with a local agent so you’ve got the information you need to be ready for this prime buying time.

A recent survey from Bank of America asked would-be homebuyers what would help them feel better about making a move, and it’s no surprise the answers have a clear theme. They want affordability to improve, specifically prices and rates (see below):

Here’s the good news. While the broader economy may still feel uncertain, there are signs the housing market is showing some changes in both of those areas. Let’s break it down so you know what you’re working with.

Prices Are Moderating

Over the past few years, home prices climbed fast, sometimes so fast it left many buyers feeling shut out. But today, that pace has slowed down. For comparison, from 2020 to 2021, prices rose by 20% in a 12-month period. Now? Nationally, experts are projecting single-digit increases this year – a much more normal pace.

That’s a sharp contrast to the rapid growth we saw just a few short years ago. Just remember, price trends are going to vary by area. In some markets, prices will continue to rise while others will experience slight declines.

Prices aren’t crashing, but they are moderating. For buyers, the slowdown makes buying a home a bit less intimidating. It’s easier to plan your budget when home values are moving at a much slower pace.

Mortgage Rates Are Easing

At the same time, rates have come down from their recent highs. And that’s taken some pressure off would-be homebuyers. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says:

“Slower price growth coupled with a slight drop in mortgage rates will improve affordability and create a window for some buyers to get into the market.”

Even a small drop in mortgage rates can mean a big difference in what you pay each month in your future mortgage payment. Just remember, while rates have come down a bit lately, they’re going to experience some volatility. So don’t get too caught up in the ups and downs.

The overall trend in the year ahead is that rates are expected to stay in the low to mid-6s – which is a lot better than where they were just a few short months ago. They may even drop further, depending on where the economy goes from here.

Why This Matters

Confidence in the economy may be low, but the housing market is showing signs of adjustment. Prices are moderating, and rates have come down from their highs.

For you, that may not solve affordability challenges altogether, but it does mean conditions look a little different than they did earlier this year. And those shifts could help you re-engage as we move into next year.

Bottom Line

Both of the top concerns for buyers are seeing some movement. Prices are moderating. Rates are easing. And both trends could stick around going into 2026.

If you’re considering a move, connect with a local real estate agent to walk you through what’s happening in your area – and what it means for your plans.