You may have seen the headlines saying mortgage rates have climbed to the highest point since January 2025. And if that’s left you reluctant to buy a home, here’s what you need to remember… 

That’s not necessarily the number you’d get. 

It’s a common misconception that the rate you see in the headlines is the same one you’d get when you buy. The truth is, mortgage rates shift often, and the rate you actually end up with can vary a lot from what you may see or hear about. 

What Determines Your Real Rate? 

Advertised rates and “real rates” aren’t always the same. That’s because real rates are based on your specific situation, which includes your overall finances and goals. The rates you see in the headlines can’t possibly reflect that. 

That’s why only a lender can tell you what your real rate will be. To figure out your unique number, they’ll look at:

• Your credit score: Your credit score includes your payment history (if you’ve made late payments – and how often), credit utilization (are your accounts maxed out, or do you have available credit?), and the length of your credit history (how long have your accounts been open?). For example, someone with an exceptional credit score may qualify for a better rate.

• Your debt-to-income ratio (DTI): This is calculated by dividing your monthly debt payments by your monthly income before taxes to come up with a percentage. The higher your DTI, the higher your rate could be.

• The down payment size and Loan-to-Value (LTV): Your down payment is the percentage of the home’s price you will put down. The LTV is the percentage of a home’s sales price that equals your mortgage. 

• The type and term of loan program options: Your loan officer will walk you through different loan options based on what you qualify for. Mortgage rates can vary between different loan products and programs. 

Even after you find a home you love, other things can have an impact too. For example:

• A mortgage rate buydown: This helps you get a lower mortgage rate, and by extension, a lower monthly payment, by paying an upfront cost. Sometimes a seller, builder, or another party may even offer to cover that cost themselves as an incentive for you to buy.

• Seller concessions: Sellers are allowed to pay buyer closing costs according to most loan program guidelines. Seller-paid closing costs can add up to thousands of dollars, which can free up some cash for you to increase your down payment, pay down debt, or make other financial adjustments to try to get a better rate. 

There’s a lot that can ultimately have an impact on your actual rate. 

Your First Step? Getting Pre-Approved.

If you want to know if your number could be higher or lower than the headlines on social, you need to talk to an expert. A simple conversation with a loan officer can help you determine when you’ll be ready to buy, how much you can borrow, and of course, what your real rate will be. 

Your lender may recommend a pre-qualification and pre-approval:

• Pre-qualification is a general estimate of what you might be able to borrow based on self-reported information. 

• On the flip side, pre-approval is actually a conditional commitment from a lender based on verified information. 

Just know that, of the two, the pre-approval process gives you a more accurate picture of your options than pre-qualification. Bankrate gives a quick comparison so you can see why:

How To Get Ready for the Conversation

Ask your lender what documents you’ll need to gather for that conversation. And keep these questions in your pocket too. They’re good things to go over when you talk: 

• What will I gain or lose by waiting to buy a home for 3, 6, or 12 months? 

• Will I get any tax advantages by buying a home – and what are they? 

• What’s the benefit of buying a home and starting to build equity now versus waiting? And how does that impact my finances in the long run?

• How will rate changes in either direction affect me?

Once you find out your rate, maybe you can buy now. Or maybe you still need to wait. But at least you’d know your options and can make an informed decision.  

Bottom Line

Headlines and social media make today’s rates sound high. But you have to remember, the rate you’re seeing online and your actual rate could be different. The only way to know what your rate could be is to talk to a trusted lender. 

With the right help, you can find out what your real rate is – and where it can take you.

Today’s housing market splits into four distinct types. You’ve got cash buyers, buyers financing a purchase, owners who feel locked into a low rate, and builders with homes to sell. Which type you’re in changes how you should buy or sell. Ryan Serhant, CEO of SERHANT agrees:

“There is no longer a housing market . . . There are four Americas.”

Here’s what each looks like, and what it means for you.

Cash Buyers: 1 in 4 Buyers Are Paying with Cash

If you already own a home, you may be able to buy your next place in cash thanks to your equity. In fact, 26% of existing home sales this summer were all-cash, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). That’s roughly 1 in 4 buyers skipping a home loan entirely.

Data from Realtor.com shows most are at the very top and very bottom of the market by price point (see graph below):

For Buyers: If you’re able to buy in cash too, having no financing contingency means your offer is going to look really appealing to sellers. You may get a faster close and more room to negotiate.

For Sellers: A cash offer can mean less risk of the deal falling through, but that certainty sometimes comes with a lower number attached. Compare the whole picture before deciding it’s automatically your best offer.

Buyers Using Financing: They’re Not Getting Help from Rates, But They Are from Sellers

If you’re looking to take out a mortgage, you should know mortgage rates aren’t likely to come down anytime soon. Data from Fannie Mae shows nearly half of experts actually raised their long-term rate forecast this year (see graphs below):

That’s tough for homebuyers relying on a mortgage, especially first-time buyers. But it’s not all bad news.

While buyers may not be getting the lower rates they want, at least there’s help to be had if you ask sellers for what you really need. Redfin data shows almost half of May sales included a concession like a rate buydown or closing-cost credit from the homeowner.

For Buyers: Stop waiting on rates to drop. Negotiate the concession instead. If the payment works today, that’s your signal.

For Sellers: Expect to negotiate. Build a concession into your pricing strategy from the start could be the thing that gets a deal done.

Rate-Locked Homeowners: Most Are Sitting on a Rate Below 5%

If you own a home already, you might not want to move and take on a higher rate than the one you’ve got. That’s the case for a lot of people. About 2 in 3 homeowners have a mortgage rate under 5%, according to Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) data (see graph below).

When a homeowner has a rate that low, it’s harder for them to want to move and leave behind that ultra-low rate. Because, they’d likely have to take on a higher one on their next home. Hence “rate locked” – they feel locked in.

And, according to Fannie Mae data, most experts think that lock-in will stick around another 3-5 years. That means this will continue to be a factor in how many homes come up for sale.

For Buyers: Fewer homeowners are listing, but the ones who do usually have a real reason to move. They’re often more flexible, motivated sellers.

For Sellers: Run the math on what your equity actually buys before ruling out a move. Got an FHA or VA loan? Ask about making it assumable. It’s rare, but it’s a real selling point.

Homebuilders: They’re Negotiating More Than You Think

If you’re looking at new construction, this might be your moment. According to the latest Census data, builders have more unsold new homes sitting around than usual, enough that it would take nearly 10 months to sell them all at the current pace (well above the normal 4-6 months pace). That’s pushing builders toward price cuts and rate buydowns.

For Buyers: That’s where the deals are right now. Just be sure to use your own agent and compare the whole incentive package, not only the price tag.

For Sellers: Lead with what a builder can’t offer – mature landscaping, an established neighborhood, and a house that’s ready today, not in 8 months. That can help your house seem like a better optiona

Bottom Line

Four different housing markets are running at once: cash buyers, financed buyers, locked-in owners, and builders. Each one plays by its own rules, and the right move for one is exactly the wrong move for another.

Connect with a local real estate agent to figure out which one you’re actually in and build your next move from there.

If you’re trying to buy a home, affordability is probably what keeps you up at night. And as you watch mortgage rates tick up again lately, it’s fair to wonder if you should just hit pause and wait for them to go down.

For now, though, they’re headed the other way. Mortgage News Daily data shows how rates have risen this year (see graph below):

And if you’re wondering why? There are actually a number of reasons. 

Mortgage rates are impacted by the situation overseas, economic data, inflation numbers, oil prices, and even decisions from the Federal Reserve (who recently decided to hike their Fed Funds Rate – which often affects mortgage rates too). As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

“The pressure on mortgage rates was here even before the Fed rate hike, and it doesn’t show signs of relenting. . .”

Now, that’s probably not what you wanted to hear. But, it doesn’t mean there’s nothing you can do. While you can’t control where rates go from here, you absolutely can control several things that shape the rate you actually get. 

So where should you focus? Let’s walk through it.

Work on Your Credit Score

Your credit score plays a big role in the rate you qualify for, and even a small improvement can make a real difference in your monthly payment. As Freddie Mac puts it:

“Generally, the higher your credit score the more options will be available to you, including better loan terms and a lower interest rate.“

So, make sure you do what you can to keep your credit score up. If you’re not sure where your score stands right now, or how to improve it, talk to a trusted loan officer.

Explore Your Loan Options

The type and term of your loan both affect your rate. Conventional, FHA, VA, and USDA loans each come with their own requirements and rates, and your term (15, 20, or 30 years) changes both your payment and the total interest you’ll pay. The structure matters, too. A fixed-rate loan holds the same rate over time, while an adjustable-rate loan usually starts lower and can move later on. Bankrate explains it this way:

“. . . rates on fixed-rate loans are typically higher than introductory rates on adjustable-rate loans because the fixed-rate lender takes on the risk that rates could increase during the loan’s term. Likewise, government-backed FHA, VA and USDA loans sometimes have lower rates because they have a government guarantee or insurance that cuts the lender’s risk.“

It’s important to explore your options with a lender to see what makes the most sense for you. Just be sure to balance your goals, your possible rate, and any potential tradeoffs before making any decision. You may even want to talk to multiple lenders to see how the options vary. 

Consider a Newly Built Home

Another path to a lower rate comes down to the kind of home you buy. Many builders are buying down mortgage rates, which lowers your monthly payment. It’s just one way they’re trying to attract buyers and get their homes sold.

According to Realtor.com, buyers of newly built homes landed a lower average rate last quarter than buyers of existing homes (see graph below):

If a lower rate is your goal, it may be worth asking your agent to show you some new build communities that are offering this type of incentive locally.

Bottom Line

You can’t control where mortgage rates go, but you can control your credit, your loan, and the kind of home you buy. Working with a trusted lender can help you lock in the best rate you qualify for. And when you’re ready to make a move that fits your budget, connect with a local real estate agent.