Mortgage rates have been the monster under the bed for a while. Every time they tick up, people flinch and say, “Maybe I’ll wait.” But here’s the twist. Waiting for that perfect 5-point-something rate could end up haunting your wallet later.

The Magic Number

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR):

“. . . a 30-year fixed rate mortgage of 6% would make the median-priced home affordable for about 5.5 million more households—including 1.6 million renters. If rates were to hit that magic number, it’s likely that about 10%—or 550,000—of those additional households would buy a home over the next 12 or 18 months.”

When the market hits that mortgage rate sweet spot, as expert forecasters are starting to say is more likely in 2026, the psychological shift to lower rates will kick in for more of today’s hopeful buyers. That will unleash some pent-up demand that’s been waiting on the sidelines, and the increase in activity will cause prices to rise.

And while a 5.99% rate might sound like a big win, if you’re waiting for that number to make your move, it might not actually save you as much as you think. Here’s how the math looks when you run the numbers (see chart below):

On a $400,000 mortgage, the difference between today’s rate (around 6.2%) and 5.99% is roughly $50 a month. That’s less than many people spend on weekly coffee runs or occasional DoorDash orders. And as prices tick up with more buyers in the market, that could quickly negate any of your potential savings.

So, if you’re waiting for 5.99%, that difference might not be worth missing out on today’s opportunities, like having more homes to choose from, better negotiation leverage with today’s sellers, and fewer buyers out there looking for the same houses.

Because the reality is, those benefits start to slip away when more buyers begin to make their moves – and a rate under 6% is exactly they’re waiting for.

Why Acting Now Makes Sense

Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist and VP of Research at NAR, says:

“Over the last 5 weeks, mortgage rates have averaged 6.31%. This has provided savvy buyers a sweet spot to reexamine the home search process with more inventory, widening their choices.”

And like Matt Vernon, Head of Retail Lending at Bank of America, notes:

“Rather than waiting it out for a rate that they like better, hopeful homebuyers should assess their personal financial situation—if the house is right for them, and the upfront and monthly payments are affordable, it could be the right chance to make a move.”

Bottom Line

If moving at today’s rate scares you, remember, waiting doesn’t always pay off. Once rates dip below 6%, as some experts project they’ll do next year, more buyers (and higher prices) will be back.

So, don’t be afraid of today’s mortgage rates. Because if you’re ready, this might just be your chance to make a move before the market wakes up again.

If you paused your plans to move because of high rates or prices, it may finally be time to take a second look at your numbers. Affordability is improving in 39 of the top 50 markets, according to First American. And that’s the 5th straight month where buying a home has started to get a little bit easier.

Let’s break this down into real dollars, so you can see the difference this could make for you (and your move).

Monthly Payments Are Coming Down

One of the clearest signs of this shift is in monthly payments. The latest data from Redfin shows mortgage payments on a median-priced home are now $283 lower than they were just a few months ago (see graph below):

This kind of monthly savings adds up fast, and totals nearly $3,400 over the course of a year.

While this isn’t enough to completely change the affordability game overnight, think about it this way. When you’re putting together a homebuying budget, a few hundred dollars could be the difference between being comfortable buying and feeling like money’s a bit tight.

And from a home-search perspective, it could even be enough to change the price point you can look at. According to Redfin:

“A borrower with a $3,000 monthly budget can now afford a $468,000 home, about $22,000 more than in June.”

And that’s a big deal if you haven’t found a home you love in your price range yet. It gives you a little more flexibility to find the one that’s right for you.

Either way, that’s a big win.

What’s Behind the Shift?

Two key factors are working in your favor right now:

• Mortgage rates have eased from their high earlier this year
• Home price growth is slowing in many markets

Both of those things help your bottom line and give you a bit of breathing room if you’re buying a home. As Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE Mortgage Technology, says:

“The recent pullback in rates has created a tailwind for both homebuyers and existing borrowers. We’re seeing affordability at a 2.5-year high . . .”

Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer or someone looking to move-up into a bigger house, the shifts happening this year could make your move possible. Connect with a trusted agent or lender to see what your monthly payment would look like at today’s rates.

For you, the savings could be the difference between “not yet” and “let’s go.”

Bottom Line

Affordability is improving in many markets. And that resets the math on your move.

If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines, this is your cue to start looking again. Connect with a local agent or trusted lender to run the numbers together so you can get a rough estimate of how much more buying power you may have than you did just a few months ago.

After a couple of years where the housing market felt stuck in neutral, 2026 may be the year things shift back into gear. Expert forecasts show more people are expected to move – and that could open the door for you to do the same.

More Homes Will Sell

With all of the affordability challenges at play over the past few years, many would-be movers pressed pause. But that pause button isn’t going to last forever. There are always people who need to move. And experts think more of them will start to act in 2026 (see graph below):

What’s behind the change? Two key factors: mortgage rates and home prices. Let’s dive into the latest expert forecasts for both, so you can see why more people are expected to move next year.

Mortgage Rates Could Continue To Ease

The #1 thing just about every buyer has been looking for is lower mortgage rates. And after peaking near 7% earlier this year, rates have started to ease.

The latest forecasts show that could continue throughout 2026, but it won’t be a straight line down (see graph below):

There’s a saying: when rates go up, they take the escalator. But when they come down, they take the stairs. And that’s an important thing to remember. It’ll be a slow and bumpy process.

Expect modest improvement in mortgage rates over the next year but be ready for some volatility. There will be volatility along the way as new economic data comes out. Just don’t let it distract you from the bigger picture: the overall trend will be a slight decline. Forecasts say we could hit the low 6s, or maybe even the high 5s.

And remember, there doesn’t have to be a big drop for you to feel a change. Even a smaller dip helps your bottom line.

If you compare where rates are now to when they were at 7% earlier this year, you’re already saving hundreds on your future mortgage payment. And that’s a really good thing. It’s enough to make a real difference in affordability for some buyers.

Home Price Growth Will Be Moderate

What about prices? On a national scale, forecasts say they’re still going to rise, just not by a lot. With rates down from their peak earlier this year, more buyers will re-enter the market. And that increased demand will keep some upward pressure on prices nationally – and prevent prices from tumbling down.

So, even though some markets are already seeing slight price declines, you can rest easy that a big crash just isn’t in the cards. Thanks to how much prices rose over the last 5 years, even the markets seeing declines right now are still up compared to just a few years ago.

Of course, price trends will depend on where you are and what’s happening in your local market. Inventory is a big driver in why some places are going to see varying levels of appreciation going forward. But experts agree we’ll see prices grow at the national level (see graph below): 

This is yet another good sign for buyers and overall affordability. While prices will still go up nationally, it’ll be at a much more sustainable pace. And that predictability makes it easier to plan your budget. It also gives you peace of mind that prices won’t suddenly skyrocket overnight.

Bottom Line

After a quieter couple of years, 2026 is expected to bring more movement – and more opportunity. With sales projected to rise, mortgage rates trending lower, and price growth slowing down, the stage is set for a healthier, more active market.

So, the big question: will you be one of the movers making 2026 your year?

Connect with an agent if you want to get ready.