If you’ve been following real estate news lately, you’ve probably seen headlines saying home prices are flat. And at first glance, that sounds simple enough. But here’s the thing. The reality isn’t quite that straightforward.

In most places, prices aren’t flat at all.

What the Data Really Shows

While we’ve definitely seen prices moderate from the rapid and unsustainable climb in 2020-2022, how much they’ve changed is going to be different everywhere.

If you look at data from ResiClub and Zillow for the 50 largest metros, this becomes very clear. The real story is split right down the middle. Half of the metros are still seeing prices inch higher. The other half? Prices are coming down slightly (see graph below).

The big takeaway here is “flat” doesn’t mean prices are holding steady everywhere. What the numbers actually show is how much price trends are going to vary depending on where you are.

One factor that’s driving the divide? Inventory. The Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) of Harvard University explains:

“ . . . price trends are beginning to diverge in markets across the country. Prices are declining in a growing number of markets where inventories have soared while they continue to climb in markets where for-sale inventories remain tight.”

When you average those very different trends together, you get a number that looks like it’s flat. But it doesn’t give you the real story and it’s not what most markets are feeling today. You deserve more than that.

And just in case you’re really focusing on the declines, remember those are primarily places where prices rose too much, too fast just a few years ago. Prices went up roughly 50% nationally over the past 5 years, and even more than that in some of the markets that are experiencing a bigger correction today. So, a modest drop in some local pockets still puts most of those homeowners ahead when it comes to the overall value of their home. And based on the fundamentals of today’s housing market, experts are not projecting a national decline going forward.

So, what’s actually important for you to know?

If You’re Buying…

You need to know what’s happening in your area because that’s going to influence everything from how quickly you need to make an offer to how much negotiating power you’ll have once you do.

• In a market where prices are still inching up, waiting around could mean paying more down the line.
• In a market where they’re easing, you may be able to ask for things like repairs or closing cost help to sweeten the deal.

The bottom line? Knowing your local trend puts you in the driver’s seat. 

If You’re Selling…

You’ll want to be aware of local trends, so you’ll know how to price your house and how much you can expect to negotiate.

• In a market where prices are still rising, you may not need to make many compromises to get your home sold.
• But if you’re in a market where prices are coming down, setting the right price from the start and being willing to negotiate becomes much more important.

The big action item for homeowners? Sellers need to have an agent’s local perspective if they want to avoid making the wrong call on pricing – and homes that are priced right are definitely selling.

The Real Story Is Local

The national averages can point to broad trends, and that’s helpful context. But sometimes you’re going to need a local point of view because what’s happening in your zip code could look different. As Anthony Smith, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, article puts it:

“While national prices continued to climb, local market conditions have become increasingly fragmented…This regional divide is expected to continue influencing price dynamics and sales activity as the fall season gets underway.”

That’s why the smartest move, whether you’re buying or selling, is to lean on a local agent who’s an expert on your market.

They’ll have the data and the experience to tell you whether prices in your area are holding steady, moving up, or softening a bit – and how that could impact your move.

Bottom Line

Headlines calling home prices flat may be grabbing attention, but they’re not giving you the full picture.

Has anyone taken the time to walk you through what’s happening in your market?

If you want the real story about what prices are doing in your area, connect with a local agent.

You want mortgage rates to fall – and they’ve started to. But is it going to last? And how low will they go?

Experts say there’s room for rates to come down even more over the next year. And one of the leading indicators to watch is the 10-year treasury yield. Here’s why.

The Link Between Mortgage Rates and the 10-Year Treasury Yield

For over 50 years, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has closely followed the movement of the 10-year treasury yield, which is a widely watched benchmark for long-term interest rates (see graph below):

When the treasury yield climbs, mortgage rates tend to follow. And when the yield falls, mortgage rates typically come down.

It’s been a predictable pattern for over 50 years. So predictable, that there’s a number experts consider normal for the gap between the two. It’s known as the spread, and it usually averages about 1.76 percentage points, or what you sometimes hear as 176 basis points.

The Spread Is Shrinking

Over the past couple of years, though, that spread has been much wider than normal. Why? Think of the spread as a measure of fear in the market. When there’s lingering uncertainty in the economy, the gap widens beyond its usual norm. That’s one of the reasons why mortgage rates have been unusually high over the past few years.

But here’s a sign for optimism. Even though there’s still some lingering uncertainty related to the economy, that spread is starting to shrink as the path forward is becoming clearer (see graph below):

And that opens the door for mortgage rates to come down even more. As a recent article from Redfin explains:

“A lower mortgage spread equals lower mortgage rates. If the spread continues to decline, mortgage rates could fall more than they already have.”

The 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Expected To Decline

It’s not just the spread, though. The 10-year treasury yield itself is also forecast to come down in the months ahead. So, when you combine a lower yield with a narrowing spread, you have two key forces potentially pushing mortgage rates down going into next year.

This long-term relationship is a big reason why you see experts currently projecting mortgage rates will ease, with a fringe possibility they’ll hit the upper 5s toward the end of next year.

Here’s how it works. Take the 10-year treasury yield, which is sitting at about 4.09% at the time this article is being written, and then add the average spread of 1.76%. From there, you’d expect mortgage rates to be around 5.85% (see graph below):

But remember, all of that can change as the economy shifts. And know for certain that there will be ups and downs along the way. 

How these dynamics play out will depend on where the economy, the job market, inflation, and more go from here. But the 2026 outlook is currently expected to be a gradual mortgage rate decline. And as of now, things are starting to move in the right direction.

Bottom Line

Keeping up with all of these shifts can feel overwhelming. That’s why having an experienced agent or lender on your side matters. They’ll do the heavy lifting for you.

If you want real-time updates on mortgage rates, reach out to a trusted agent or lender who can keep you in the loop and help you plan your next move.

If you’ve been thinking about downsizing to lower your expenses, be closer to family, or just make life easier, here’s a trend worth paying attention to:

More homeowners are buying their next house outright, without taking on a new mortgage. And, if you’ve owned your home for a while, you may be able to do the same. No mortgage. No monthly housing payments.

A Record Share of Homeowners Are Mortgage-Free

According to analysis from ResiClub of Census data, more than 40% of U.S. owner-occupied homes are mortgage-free – an all-time high for this data series. That means 4 in 10 homeowners own their homes free and clear (see graph below):

One big reason for this trend? Demographics. As Baby Boomers age and stay in their homes longer, many have had the time to fully pay off their mortgages. You might be in that group too and not even realize just how much buying power you now have. It’s time to change that.

How Downsizers Are Turning Equity into Buying Power

As a homeowner, your equity is your biggest advantage in today’s market. If you’re mortgage-free (or close to it), it could give you the power to buy your next home in cash. That means you’d still have no mortgage payment in retirement, plus:

• Less financial stress as you age
• More cash flow, if you purchase a less expensive home
• And it would likely be a faster, simpler transaction

Here’s how it works. You’d sell your current house and use the proceeds to buy your next house in cash. And while that may sound like something you thought would never be possible for you, it’s more realistic than you may think.

In the latest survey from John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM), agents reported the share of purchases with all-cash buyers is climbing nationally. And those agents are seeing increases in almost every region of the country (see graph below):

For Baby Boomers especially, buying in cash gives you more control over your next chapter. You could buy a smaller, less expensive home and have lower costs, less upkeep, and more flexibility to enjoy what matters most. All while staying debt and stress free.

Because downsizing isn’t about downgrading your home. It’s about upgrading your quality of life. And that’s something worth exploring.

Bottom Line

You’ve worked hard for your house. Now it might be time for it to work hard for you.

Talk to your agent about what your house is worth, and what it could unlock for you today. What would your ideal home look like if you were to downsize right now?