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Why Home Prices Aren’t Actually Flat

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If you’ve been following real estate news lately, you’ve probably seen headlines saying home prices are flat. And at first glance, that sounds simple enough. But here’s the thing. The reality isn’t quite that straightforward.

In most places, prices aren’t flat at all.

What the Data Really Shows

While we’ve definitely seen prices moderate from the rapid and unsustainable climb in 2020-2022, how much they’ve changed is going to be different everywhere.

If you look at data from ResiClub and Zillow for the 50 largest metros, this becomes very clear. The real story is split right down the middle. Half of the metros are still seeing prices inch higher. The other half? Prices are coming down slightly (see graph below).

a graph of prices on a dark backgroundThe big takeaway here is “flat” doesn’t mean prices are holding steady everywhere. What the numbers actually show is how much price trends are going to vary depending on where you are.

One factor that’s driving the divide? Inventory. The Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) of Harvard University explains:

“ . . . price trends are beginning to diverge in markets across the country. Prices are declining in a growing number of markets where inventories have soared while they continue to climb in markets where for-sale inventories remain tight.”

When you average those very different trends together, you get a number that looks like it’s flat. But it doesn’t give you the real story and it’s not what most markets are feeling today. You deserve more than that.

And just in case you’re really focusing on the declines, remember those are primarily places where prices rose too much, too fast just a few years ago. Prices went up roughly 50% nationally over the past 5 years, and even more than that in some of the markets that are experiencing a bigger correction today. So, a modest drop in some local pockets still puts most of those homeowners ahead when it comes to the overall value of their home. And based on the fundamentals of today’s housing market, experts are not projecting a national decline going forward.

So, what’s actually important for you to know?

If You’re Buying…

You need to know what’s happening in your area because that’s going to influence everything from how quickly you need to make an offer to how much negotiating power you’ll have once you do.

  • In a market where prices are still inching up, waiting around could mean paying more down the line.
  • In a market where they’re easing, you may be able to ask for things like repairs or closing cost help to sweeten the deal.

The bottom line? Knowing your local trend puts you in the driver’s seat. 

If You’re Selling…

You’ll want to be aware of local trends, so you’ll know how to price your house and how much you can expect to negotiate.

  • In a market where prices are still rising, you may not need to make many compromises to get your home sold.
  • But if you’re in a market where prices are coming down, setting the right price from the start and being willing to negotiate becomes much more important.

The big action item for homeowners? Sellers need to have an agent’s local perspective if they want to avoid making the wrong call on pricing – and homes that are priced right are definitely selling.

The Real Story Is Local

The national averages can point to broad trends, and that’s helpful context. But sometimes you’re going to need a local point of view because what’s happening in your zip code could look different. As Anthony Smith, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, article puts it:

“While national prices continued to climb, local market conditions have become increasingly fragmented…This regional divide is expected to continue influencing price dynamics and sales activity as the fall season gets underway.

That’s why the smartest move, whether you’re buying or selling, is to lean on a local agent who’s an expert on your market.

They’ll have the data and the experience to tell you whether prices in your area are holding steady, moving up, or softening a bit – and how that could impact your move.

Bottom Line

Headlines calling home prices flat may be grabbing attention, but they’re not giving you the full picture.

Has anyone taken the time to walk you through what’s happening in your market?

If you want the real story about what prices are doing in your area, connect with a local agent.

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Buying Tips

Home Insurance Costs Are Rising: What Buyers Should Plan For

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Buying a home is one of the biggest purchases you’ll ever make. And homeowner’s insurance is what protects that investment. Think of it as your safety net. NerdWallet explains it:

  • Covers Repairs and Rebuilding Costs: If your home is damaged by fire, storms, or other covered events, it helps pay for repairs and possibly even a full rebuild, if that’s deemed necessary.
  • Protects Your Belongings: It can also cover personal items like furniture, electronics, jewelry, and clothing if they’re stolen or damaged.
  • Provides Liability Coverage: And, if someone gets injured on your property, your policy can help cover medical bills or legal expenses.

But that peace of mind does come with a cost, and lately those costs have been rising.

Why Home Insurance Premiums Are Going Up

There are a number of factors causing insurance premiums to rise today. But, in the simplest sense, here’s what’s driving prices up according to the Insurance Research Council (IRC).

Severe weather events and natural disasters are happening increasingly often, leading to more claims. At the same time, homebuilding materials and labor are more expensive. So, when it comes time to work on those claims, insurers have to manage higher costs to repair or rebuild the affected homes.

That combination adds up to higher premiums. You can see how it’s climbed recently in the graph below. Each bar marks the percentage increase in insurance costs for that calendar year.

a graph of a graph showing the cost of homeowner insuranceThe good news is, the annual pace of the increase may be starting to ease according to ResiClub and Cotality. By their count:

  • In 2023 and 2024, insurance costs went up 14% a year.
  • In 2025, they rose about 10%.
  • And in 2026 and 2027, it’s expected to go up about 8% each year.

That’s still an increase, but at least the pace is slowing down. And here’s another silver lining.

While insurance costs are rising, mortgage rates are falling. And that can help offset some of this expense. As Michael Gaines, Senior VP of Capital Markets, Cardinal Financial, explains:

Rising taxes and insurance do create pressure, but they don’t erase the benefits of a lower rate . . . A small rate improvement, paired with the right loan program and smart planning, can still make homeownership possible . . . It’s less about one factor canceling another out, and more about helping buyers layer the right solutions together.”

Costs Are Going To Be Different Depending on Where You Buy

So how much do you need to budget for this? It depends on the price point and location of house, the coverage you need, and more. And just like with everything else in real estate, costs vary by area.

You can get a rough idea of your state’s typical premiums in the map below:

So, What Can You Do About It?

Generally speaking, your first insurance payment will be wrapped into your closing costs. But after that, it’ll become a recurring expense. That’s why knowing these premiums are rising is so important. It helps you factor that into your budget, so you go in with a full picture of what you can comfortably afford.

If you’re crunching the numbers and trying to find other ways to save, here are a few tips from Insurify and NerdWallet that can help you get the best insurance price possible:

  • Shop Around – Compare quotes from multiple companies.
  • Bundle Policies – Combine home and auto for discounts.
  • Ask About Discounts – Don’t miss out on savings you may qualify for.
  • Highlight Upgrades – Features like a new roof or storm windows can cut costs.
  • Improve Your Credit – A stronger credit score can mean better premiums.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking about buying a home, don’t forget to plan ahead for your homeowner’s insurance.

While costs are rising, knowing what to expect and how to shop around can make a big difference as you’re budgeting for your purchase. Because this isn’t coverage you’ll want to skimp on. It’s your best protection for what’s likely your biggest investment.

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First-Time Buyers

Top 2026 Housing Markets for Buyers and Sellers

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Who doesn’t love a top 10 list? Well, here are two top 10 lists for the housing market this year. But before you take a look, there’s something you should know.

If a move is on your radar for 2026, here’s the most important thing you need to understand upfront: there isn’t one housing market this year – there are many.

Experts agree 2026 is shaping up to be one of the most geographically split housing markets in years. Some areas are tilting in favor of sellers, while others are opening real doors for buyers. Who has the advantage depends almost entirely on where you are. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at Cotality, puts it this way:

Looking ahead to 2026, regional differences will remain pronounced, with demand favoring areas that offer both economic opportunity and relative affordability.”

To show just how divided the landscape is, here’s a look at where sellers are expected to have the upper hand, and where first-time buyers may finally find their opening this year.

Where Sellers Are Poised To Win Big in 2026

Zillow identified the following metros as some of the strongest seller markets for 2026, based on buyer demand, pricing momentum, and how quickly homes are expected to sell:

a wooden house and a stack of coinsIn markets like these, buyers are going to be competing for limited inventory, which gives sellers more leverage.

Homeowners in seller’s markets this year can expect:

  • Stronger buyer interest

  • Shorter time on market

  • Better odds of selling close to (or above) asking price

That doesn’t mean every listing is guaranteed success. But it does mean sellers who prepare well and lean on an agent’s expertise should be very happy with their results in 2026.

Markets Where There’s More Opportunity for First-Time Buyers

On the flip side, here’s a look at where buyers have the power – in particular, first-time buyers, since they’ve had the hardest time breaking into the market lately. Realtor.com highlights the top metros where first-time buyers are expected to have better opportunities in 2026:

a girl riding a skateboard in front of a houseThese markets stand out for a mix of:

  • More affordable home prices

  • Better housing availability

  • Strong local amenities and economic health

For first-time buyers, that combination matters. It’s what could finally turn “someday” into “this could actually work.” In buyer’s markets, they should expect:

  • Less intense competition

  • More room to negotiate

  • A clearer path to getting an offer accepted

What Matters More Than Any Top 10 List

Not seeing your city on the list? Don’t stress. This is just a national snapshot, not a judgment on your local market. The goal here is just to show you how different the market really is depending on where you are.

And remember, you can buy or sell no matter how your local market leans. You just need an agent’s help to figure out the right strategy to get it done. For example:

  • A seller in a more buyer-friendly metro may need to be aggressive on their price and prep.

  • A buyer in a seller-leaning area may still need to come prepared with their best offer.

To find out where your market falls and what you should expect, you’ll want the help of a local expert.

Bottom Line

The housing market in 2026 isn’t one-size-fits-all. It’s a year where local conditions matter more than ever.

Whether your market leans more buyer-friendly or seller-friendly, the right strategy can put you in a strong position. And that’s where a local expert comes in. Connect with a trusted real estate agent today.

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Buying Tips

You May Not Want To Skip Over That House That’s Been Sitting on the Market

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When you see a house that’s been sitting on the market for a while, the reaction is almost automatic. You start thinking:

  • What’s wrong with it?

  • Why hasn’t anyone bought it yet?

  • Am I missing something?

That mindset made sense a few years ago. But in today’s market, you may actually miss out.

More Time on Market Isn’t Automatically a Concern Anymore

A few years ago, homes sold in just a matter of days. Sometimes, hours. Anything that lingered longer than that raised concerns. But that’s no longer the baseline.

Inventory has grown. Buyers have more choices. And homes are taking longer to sell across the board. Those are some of the reasons why the typical time it takes a home to sell has climbed this year:

a graph of blue barsAnd it’s not that 73 days is slow. That’s actually pretty normal for this time of year. It just feels slow because you heard so much about houses being snapped up in the buying frenzy a few years ago.

That shift alone explains a lot of what you’re seeing. It’s not necessarily that there’s anything wrong with the house itself. Although, let’s be honest, sometimes that is the case.

Most of the time today, a house that’s taking longer to sell simply means:

  • There are a lot of homes for sale in that area

  • The seller priced a little too high at first

  • The home didn’t photograph as well online

  • Buyers passed it over for flashier listings nearby

  • The timing just wasn’t right when it first hit the market

None of those are necessarily deal-breakers.

What Buyers Often Get Wrong About These Listings

Because even though you may assume a house that hasn’t sold must have hidden issues, the reality is, that’s not always the case. And, if the house does have issues, it’ll show up quickly in your inspection.

That’s information you can use to negotiate. Not a reason to walk away automatically. And in many cases, that’s where buyers find the best deals.

The key is knowing which homes that have been sitting for a while are worth a second look – and which ones aren’t. That’s why working with a local agent makes a real difference. They’ll be able to look at disclosures and more to help you uncover hidden gems other buyers may overlook. 

Bottom Line

A home sitting on the market isn’t always a warning sign. Sometimes it’s an overlooked opportunity.

If you want help identifying which homes are worth a second look (and which ones to skip), talk to a local agent.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.